Your views please

[Rhoid]

Your views please
I'd like you views on which majors you think are the ones to focus attention on trying to get on with. I believe that for now and for the forseeable future that FedEx and UPS will be the only two major airlines that will even come close to providing the pay, benefits, job security, variety of aircraft and routes and last but not least a secure defined benefit retirement plan just like in the glory days of the majors.

My goal is still to make it to a major and I think that these two airlines, along with SWA (but I don't want to fly a 737 the rest of my life, so they are not included) are the only two majors that it is going to be worth leaving a regional for. It seems that for the rest of the legacy airlines the line defining them from the regionals in terms of pay, benefits and retirement get fuzzier every day and if I were a senior regional pilot, I'm not sure I'd leave to go to a legacy if and when they hire again.

 

[fokkerjet]

Anybody at Pan Am, Eastern, USAir, United, American, TWA, blah blah blah.......want to explain to this person about job security.

Life in aviation is a crapshoot.......pick one and take your chances!

 

[Rhoid]

I'm not interested in the past, i'm interested in what majors you think that it will be worth leaving a regional or a mid level corporate job for in the future.

 

[Heavy Set]

I agree that Fedex and UPS are pretty good bets becuase they have tremendous brands and balance sheets (for now). SWA seems to be a pretty good bet historically and, despite having to fly 737s for the rest of your life, would most likely provide the stability you desire.

I would look for "sustainable" models - successful LCCs have a pretty good shot surviving economic downturns in the future because of their low cost structures. Following that logic, you may want to look at SWA, AirTran and JetBlue as potential good bets because they already have low cost structures. The legacy major carriers are all vulnerable until they can permanently reduce their operating costs in this low fare environment.

 

[FarginDooshbahg]

I'm not interested in the past, i'm interested in what majors you think that it will be worth leaving a regional or a mid level corporate job for in the future.

The point he was making, which you obviously missed, is that NO ONE knows what the future holds for this industry (and anyone who says otherwise is lying or simply doesn't know that they are talking about). What looks like a good bet today could be a total bust in the future. Like he said, it's a crapshoot. You pay your money and you take your chances. Or, if you are smart, you find another line of work.

 

[FatesPawn]

Your views please
My goal is still to make it to a major and I think that these two airlines, along with SWA (but I don't want to fly a 737 the rest of my life, so they are not included) are the only two majors that it is going to be worth leaving a regional for.

See the above comments about how life's a crapshoot...

As for your comments about not wanting to fly a 737 for the rest of your life..... do you really think that 30 years from now a 737 would be your only choice at SWA??? Although you claim to not want to "look to the past," you unconsciously are doing exactly that by thinking that 30, 40 50 years from now SWA is going to be EXACTLY THE SAME AS IT IS TODAY.

Besides, this may sound a litte soap-boxy here, but with 1300 hours, you really need to loosen up your standards. The future is NOT set with ANY company and though you desire stability, is just isn't going to be there in aviation. I thought I was hedging my bets pretty well by winning the lottery and getting hired at UAL in 2001... oops. Anyway, I'll be in class at SWA shortly and will give them a try Life is a dice game. Now, if I can just avoid diabetes, heart disease, cancer.... and make it to 60 I'll be set! That's the ticket!

-Fate

 

[juan2go]

737's For Life!

Heaven forbid you should have to fly a 737 for the rest of your career.

Nothing personal, but as you move up the aviation food chain, you will learn/realize that there are some things that are more important than "size" (just don't ask my wife). Quality of life, "job security", pay, benefits.........

Good Luck and beware of fuselage envy.

juan.

 

[F18-FDX]

Yes, it's true that nobody has a crystal ball. If you look at the core business, however, cargo is the only choice in my opinion. In the global economy in which we are currently operating, air cargo is a major player and really the baseline for many companies. According to a recent forecast by Boeing, air cargo is projected to grow at a conservative 5% per year and on top of that, Express traffic worldwide should grow about 9% per year, for the next two decades. As any investor knows, past performance does not predict future success, but I think it is reasonable to say that the cargo carriers have exhibited a stability the pax guys can only dream of.

You can't even compare the profit margins cargo has over pax, and that gap is only widening. And, oh by the way, boxes aren't scared to fly.

I would agree that long-term success in this business is a crapshoot, but as in life, some bets are smarter than others. I'll let you know if mine was when I turn 60. My $ 0.02

 

[capt. megadeth]

What looks like a good bet today could be a total bust in the future. QUOTE]

You hit the nail on the head!

Wait until you upgrade and get more than 1300 hours to worry about it. I am not trying to rip on you, I am just speaking from experience. When I had your flight time, I wanted to go to American or Delta. Today, it is FedEx or UPS.

Fates and Pawn,
I am sorry but I can understand his lack of desire to fly a 737 for the rest of his life. I know SWA is stable at the moment, but personally I would like to look back on my career and know that I have flown all different kinds of airplanes. Granted, SWA is a stable carrier at the moment, but things can change. I hope it doesn't and SWA is around forever but look at history. Everybody is different and money is not everything (even though I complain about not making enough) but you just have to figure out what is most important to you.

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

I'm not interested in the past, i'm interested in what majors you think that it will be worth leaving a regional or a mid level corporate job for in the future.

Ahh to be young again!!

FedEx and UPS are probably the best bets for the long haul.........You know 5 or 10 years. Past that and it is a gigantic crap shoot.

In the 70's people gave their left gonad for a job with Braniff, Eastern, Pan-Am, TWA. Chances are Rhoid that other than TWA you probably don't remember ever seeing one of those airlines. Yet in 1973 they were the big boys. And Fedex's founder was still a Fighter pilot. UPS was a company that hauled boxes around in trucks.(I know, I know, UPSers...they are not trucks!!)

In 30 years it will be the same, a few that we know now. And many that we have yet to see. And fond memories of the ones that are gone.


Roll the dice. But in the end, you will be like the rest of us and end up with whoever offers you the job. Chances are it won't be who you think it will be now.

 

[Stinkbug]

Thank you, FatesPawn, for saying what I've often thought whenever someone laments about "flying a 737 for the rest of my life". I too think it seems highly unlikely that over the course of the next twenty or thirty years that Southwest we'll continue to stay solely with the 737. I mean, I'm not an expert on their history, but didn't they fly 727's at first, then later switch to become strictly a 737 operator?

 

[PastFastMover]

Rhoid,

UPS and FEDEX are great choices for a career. I guess you can call them major airlines, I have always thought of them as cargo carriers hauling boxes and packages in the middle of the night. I am sure that is changing somewhat, but you have to decide if you want to live your life on the back side of the clock. Both great companies and you would be fortunate to get hired at either. As far as flying the 737 for the next 30 years.. Hmmm... Who cares. It's just another windscreen. Once you get to where you want to be, the aircraft is really irrelevant other than if one pays more than the other.

Good luck!!!

 

[General Lee]

I would say go for Eastern and TWA.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[sandman2122]

BTW, Fred Smith was NOT a former fighter pilot!

 

[Dinger]

The best airline to work for is............the one who hires you!

 

[ivauir]

Really? Then why be an airline pilot? Airline flying is pretty boring and repetetive. Have you flown a float plane? What about skiis? Helos? Gliders? The Blimp? Dood, I've flown a lot of different things, and I love to fly. But at some point I want checks that come on time and don't bounce.

The whole "I don't want to fly a 737 forever" argument strikes me as silly. Do you want a career or a membership in a flying club?

 

[TR4A]

I'm not an expert on their history, but didn't they fly 727's at first, then later switch to become strictly a 737 operator?

SWA started with the B737-200. In 1983 SWA flew five B727-200's until 1985.

 

[TR4A]

------------- double post--------------deleted

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

BTW, Fred Smith was NOT a former fighter pilot!

You got me. Charter Pilot first, then a Marine grunt in Vietnam.

 

[miles otoole]

I would say go for Eastern and TWA.



Bye Bye--General Lee

and Delta.