Without SCOPE the hiring boom is a PIPE DREAM

[BrickTop]

For many it may be an easy choice to accept the opportunity to be employed by a legacy carrier like DAL,SWA,UAL,CAL US AIR etc. But one fact that has been widely un-discussed in anticipation of the hiring boom and potential threat is; SCOPE.

We can all speculate pilot integrity in regards to holding onto scope or the fact oil demands larger fleet sizes to spread operating costs. But we know the hard truth is legacy carriers are determined to navigate around or seek relief from scope in the coming years. Or at minimal find "regional" sized airframes in their operations for less than desirable pay scales.

Simple math will show indeed a retirement boom is plausible and more likely real. But the most unanswered question I have is how many positions at legacies will be a par for par replacement? I often thought the risk of moving to a Major carrier is to great without knowing the fate of Major vs Regional growth.

If mainline carriers afford the scope relief they desire through tactics like the Skywest contract in the UAL/CAL merger, dangling carrots or other market forces, Not every retirement will be a replacement at a major carrier, or as mainline carriers find themselves operating regional aircraft on former mainline routes. Much the way UAL did with their 737 fleet. Many of those positions are not coming back and were replaced by 70 seat aircraft. This risks in stagnation, reductions and even further possible furloughs at major carriers as regional fleets grow.

Major carriers may instead (pending scope) replace those city pairs with larger scale regional jets or reduced intervals. Either way the need for pilots in the industry IS REAL however, the question is where? I know the question is about as answered as quantum physics but the risk of leaving a career at XXX has had me in question for years. Is in fact the safest place to be in the future, a senior pilot at a successful regional?

Many of us hope the shift in recent years will result in more careers returning to the legacy carriers however we cannot discount the risk involved in making such as a move as the industry changes many operational measures in the years ahead.

There may in fact be massive legacy retirement in the future ahead but it may not be the safest place to be when a new era evolves from scope circumnavigation which is NOT unlikely. You may think hard about the move as a senior pilot at your regional carrier. Just a thought.

Discuss:

 

[skywdriver]

CAL/UAL will get the chance to set the course straight for the industry when it comes time to vote on a contract. I will not vote yes on any contract that alleviates scope in any way, period. Everyone talks about how important scope is, I hope their vote is as powerful as their words.

 

[Flybywire44]

CAL/UAL will get the chance to set the course straight for the industry when it comes time to vote on a contract. I will not vote yes on any contract that alleviates scope in any way, period. Everyone talks about how important scope is, I hope their vote is as powerful as their words.

Lets hope so.

 

[On Your Six]

Hopefully higher oil prices will take care of the 50 seat RJ threat.


OYS

 

[slackass]

If risk scares you stay where you are. If you would have made the move a few years ago instead of staying put you would be making at least as much as you are now with the posibility of much more. Quality of life? That's another consideration.

 

[Bringupthebird]

Shouldn't prospective legacy pilots evalute how counterproductive it is/was to their long-term career goals when they choose to go to work for an airline that operates those aircraft at substantially lower pay rates than equivalent mainline aircraft? Should they be absolved from being willing accomplices to the demise of their career goals just because they were lured into a job flying a jet that looked similar to the one they hoped to fly as a career? They shoulder the bulk of the responsibility for the state of the industry, not unlike the irresponsible homebuyers who aspired to own homes they knew they couldn't afford absent some screwball mortgage scheme are to blame for the recent housing market collapse.

Aside from a few years of relative stability and high wages which in retrospect are an aberration, the piloting profession is returning to the state it had been prior to the early 50's; a job with slightly above average pay and the job security of a migrant farm worker, no matter what size airplane you fly.

 

[pilotyip]

remember it was mainline piltos not wanting those little T-props in their fleet that started this whole thing back in the 80's

 

[Homer Jay]

remember it was mainline piltos not wanting those little T-props in their fleet that started this whole thing back in the 80's

And I'm ready to strike over the issue my ignorant predecessors created.

 

[Flopgut]

remember it was mainline piltos not wanting those little T-props in their fleet that started this whole thing back in the 80's

And they are the same ones creating the problems today. It's not so much that they were mainline pilots then, it's their generation. They only cared about themselves then, and they only care about themselves now. They sold out scope then, and now they've orchestrated a retirement age change. But, as far as moving on, we need to insist these old guys improve their ethics. A perfect example is the current CAL scope fight. Non-union Skywest was set to violate scope. Leading up to the arbitration showdown many of us felt that social enforcement of honoring the CAL contract needed to enter the discussion. Skywest has failed to join a union 3 times. They also flew 70 seat airplanes for a chroncally low wage. (flew 70 seaters for the same rate as a 50 for "growth" in the UAL brand post 2nd BK) Check Webster's definition of a scab. You'll find Skywest pilot's behavior to be very close to the criteria. Now, they've gone along with abiding by the arbitrator's ruling so far and I'm appreciative of them doing so. My point is, ALPA National leadership (those same baby-boomers that only care about themselves) was not on board with making an example of Skywest. Leadership has to be consistent from the top down. Scabs messed up their careers back in the day and when no less than the same (according to Webster's) was to be done to a subsequent generation they don't care. It's BS. It's very likely to be the eventual end of ALPA. However, we're still going to have the problems because we still have to work shoulder to shoulder with these pilots.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/scab

 

[JoeMerchant]

Shouldn't prospective legacy pilots evalute how counterproductive it is/was to their long-term career goals when they choose to go to work for an airline that operates those aircraft at substantially lower pay rates than equivalent mainline aircraft? Should they be absolved from being willing accomplices to the demise of their career goals just because they were lured into a job flying a jet that looked similar to the one they hoped to fly as a career? They shoulder the bulk of the responsibility for the state of the industry, not unlike the irresponsible homebuyers who aspired to own homes they knew they couldn't afford absent some screwball mortgage scheme are to blame for the recent housing market collapse.

Aside from a few years of relative stability and high wages which in retrospect are an aberration, the piloting profession is returning to the state it had been prior to the early 50's; a job with slightly above average pay and the job security of a migrant farm worker, no matter what size airplane you fly.

Says someone who themself worked for the regionals....I guess it was OK for you to work for the regionals...