Where are we headed?

[Tim47SIP]

Enigma wrote "The economies of scale advantages enjoyed by larger aircraft will enable them to remain in the fleet. As near as I can tell, an RJ sized jet costs about 75% more per seat mile to fly than does a narrowbody airliner like the 737."

I dont really think that the cost is 75% higher in PSM, but it is higher. It is not high enough to not make a fairly good profit. If the 73 was 75% more cost efficient, we would be flying allot more of them even taking in to consideration the high cost of mainline labor.

I personnaly think that some of the mainline contracts have created a comodity that has become to high of a cost to keep arround. Although the mainline guys continue to blame the WO for taking their flying, the real culprits here are the Jet Blue's, Air Trans, and SW's of the industry. As long as they are arround, the big 5 have to compete at those costs. All I can see in the future is Delta, CO, AA, and NW emerging but much leaner. They will continue with current fleets, but add additional smaller aircraft to their compliment. Contract negotiations will be very intense as ALPA tries to hang on to that last thread of hope (to preserve the industry) while the industry has made a 180 around them. As stated above, the big ones that are left will utilize any AC they need to on any route without scope restrictions on size and who flys them. I think you will eventually see one lists come about with the majors and WO's. I dont think the Mesa's, ACA's and Skywest's of the industry will die as there will be a demand for contract carriers. Additionally, I dont think (other than CO Ex) you will see alot of spin offs after contracts change for the betterment of management. I also see ALPA fighting to the death about this issue to the point that they are no longer. Hopefully, that wont happen, but people also said Pan Am would never die.

 

[bigD]

The Eclipse jets look awesome, but on a personal aircraft level, I'm not so sure it's going to go head to head with a Baron. There are other costs to consider beyond the purchase price. As a 450 hour pilot and 70 multi hours, I'd have to pay a premium just to get insured in a plane like a Baron. But I don't think an insurance company would let me get anywhere near an Eclipse except maybe to wash it.

 

[aero99]

Big d,

I agree, that getting the approved training and type rating will be more expenisve and will deter some would be private owners. A few motnhs ago, Eclipse said the "factory training" would require pilots to have 1200 tt. I don't see that any longer. Below is on the FAQ section of their website. Again, all sounds and looks good on paper but until they start flying it is all speculation as to the specifics of cost and utilization required to operate. Also, most people paying almost 1 mil for an aircraft can probably afford the higher insurance and training required for operation.


Q.I am a private pilot with an instrument rating. Will I be able to obtain insurance for an Eclipse 500 Jet?

A.Eclipse Aviation is currently investigating the best plan for our customers to obtain liability and hull insurance. We are in contact with the major insurance sources for these types of coverages. Initially, they will learn the safety features that have been built into the Eclipse Jet, and the basic components of what we plan to include in our factory and factory approved training programs. Through this partnership approach, we are confident that when our customers seek liability and hull protection, the insurance industry will have a thorough understanding of the Eclipse 500, and the qualifications of the pilots who will fly the aircraft. This will provide proper coverage at a fair price.

 

[ShawnC]

The Eclipse is going to use the Agate control system, you really should check it out. Its rather simple, its exactly like a computer game you just fly between the boxes. It has built in weather radar and its plans according to the terrian.

I would say thats its a safe bet that you might be able to get away with less in the Eclipse. Its rather fun, they are going to install the Agate sim at Riddle, I piddled around with it at Sun n Fun.

Wow 1,000, I was told that it was only 112, that is unless there are more than one company out of Florida that is doing that.

 

[VelcroJetDriver]

Once things pick up again (1-2 years) and customer demand increases the number of flights, you will see the same congestion and delays that we saw pre-911. To some extent one of the contributing problems will be the RJ (it takes up just as much airspace as a 777 but carries less than 1/6 of its pax.) Remember how SFO wanted to limit small aircraft operations back in 2000 because of its traffic jams?

I have a hard time believing the future holds nothing but 757/767's going trans-con and everything in between being flown by RJ's. There just isn't enough airspace (not to mention passengers will eventually get fed up with being stuck in a pencil-jet for a three-hour flight from ORD to MIA.)

The economies of scale will return. The CASM will determine the fate of the RJ. Airlines really would rather fly 3 737's from ORD to STL a day rather than 10 RJ's.

My crystal ball: Once the TSA alleviates the congestion in the terminals, we will once again see congestion in the skies and a return to bigger (and more profitable) aircraft.

 

[ShawnC]

The RJ isn't a replacement for the 737 its a complement. A good example is SRQ that airport gets 1 flight a day from Delta, those flights are rarely full. Now if they brought in an RJ which normally flies with less crew, most at lower pay and consumes more gas, it makes sense during the summer when there are few flights.

During the season that the snowbirds are going back and forth thats the time that you would bring in the big jets into an airport like that.

 

[charley varrick]

I just saw "Star Trek" the other day, and I think this transporter thing is gonna put us all out of work. I think we need to start a PAC today to prevent such device from every seeing the light of day. Our sterling profession depends upon it.