When airlines die!

[greyhound]

What would happen if a major U.S airline went belly-up today?Would this really be a bad thing in the long run?
Won't it create growth at other majors, allowing opportunity for many who would be stuck in their current position?
Could regional airlines negotiate better agreements with more financially sound companies, instead of competing for the lowest costs.(And dragging down labor.)
Yes, initially it would mean thousands going to the unemployment line, but wouldn't "most" of them eventually find employment at the would be expanding major's?

I know some won't like the thought of this, but maybe it's just what this industry needs in order to breathe easier.

Opinions?

 

[ALASKAN AVIATOR]

I'll say it...

United's goin down baby and we'll all be better off for it!!

 

[Snakum]

Alaskan ... speaking from a strictly ECON101 standpoint, yes, we have excess capacity right now and an airline going under, especially a big one a la UAL, would remedy that.

Speaking as human being, however, I prefer not to show glee at the thought of tens of thousands of unemployed fathers, mothers, sons, and daughters. There are real human faces attached to a tragedy of that scale and your post, with all due respect, shows a complete lack of empathy. It's pretty callous.

But that's just my opinion.

Minh

 

[WhiteCloud]

Alaskan ... speaking from a strictly ECON101 standpoint, yes, we have excess capacity right now and an airline going under, especially a big one a la UAL, would remedy that.

Speaking as human being, however, I prefer not to show glee at the thought of tens of thousands of unemployed fathers, mothers, sons, and daughters. There are real human faces attached to a tragedy of that scale and your post, with all due respect, shows a complete lack of empathy. It's pretty callous.

But that's just my opinion.

Minh

Good post! A UAL shutdown and liquidation might help some other airlines compete but, with 10,000+ pilots on the market with heavy jet experience and type ratings it will be a long time before those with lesser time and types get a call. I imagine management will remind us daily of how many resumes they get a week from folks with a gazillion hours that want your job and are willing to pay X or do X to get it. Pay raises will come slow.

 

[ALASKAN AVIATOR]

HA!

We're all *ucked anyway so who gives a **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**!!!!!!!

 

[greyhound]

Flood the pilot market?

Initially, of course, but I also believe the remaining majors would mix it up with regional, freight-haulers and pilots who "Know someone," regardless of their background.

Regionals would need pilots,and on, and on, and,on..
It would be tragic for many, but I could see many moving on to better carriers. As for those with 20 plus years at the fallen company! That's a tough one.

 

[boeing76]

The thing that I never see acknowledged on these threads or even in the news, is that it is much bigger than just an airline going out of business. An airline the size of United would have a huge effect on numerous other businesses and airlines worldwide. All of the airports served would lose revenue from landing fees. Airport businesses, from fuelers, contract mtc, catering companies, terminal stores and restaurants would all pay a hefty price. And don't forget all of the airlines that United has partnered with to create the global network alliance.

That would be just the tip of the iceberg. Once you leave the airport, there are literally thousands of businesses that would suffer great financial losses. Goodyear Tire, GE and Rolls Royce for the engines, the aircraft manufacturers themselves, the avionics companies, and all the rest that contribute to the making of an aircraft.

It is unfortunate that one of the worlds oldest and most respected airlines is in this predicament after so many fruitful decades of business. I sincerely hope that United can once again prosper and this will only become a distant memory.

 

[100LL... Again!]

Just a theory-

The closing of a large carrier would probably only slightly affect the overall capacity, as most of that flying would be picked up by other carriers, resulting in brisk hiring by those operators.

The main effect would most likely be the 'reshuffling' of the workforce into these expanding operators. The loss of seniority and all the avantages that go with it would be one of the most noticeable outcomes. I don't think it would change the TOTAL number of pilot jobs available by a significant amount.

A national seniority list would smooth out the transition, though, wouldn't it?

 

[jegermeister]

Good post! A UAL shutdown and liquidation might help some other airlines compete but, with 10,000+ pilots on the market with

[heavy jet experience and type ratings it will be a long time before those with lesser time and types get a call. I imagine management will remind us daily of how many resumes they get a week from folks with a gazillion hours that want your job and are willing to pay X or do X to get it. Pay raises will come slow. [/B]

Common sense would say that you're right about heavy jet guys getting hired first. But as I found out last fall in new hire class at a regional, that is not always the case. I myself came from another airline only to find that several of the new hires had less than 400 hours and never worked in a flying position. Pretty scary. But if you want to hire someone you can mold and aviod someone with baggage from an industry that eats it's young, then why not if you're in management. What not a better way to get more for less. For the new guy to the game, he'd be happy to fly a narrow body for around 100 G. In return the company gets a good attitude and someone they can mold. Another great trick they've come up with has been to pit mainline vs wholly owned vs contract carrier. They've got us so pissed at eachother, that many us of look forward to flying the others routes. Is it right? Hell no! Is it happening? You bet.

 

[WhiteCloud]

Good post! A UAL shutdown and liquidation might help some other airlines compete but, with 10,000+ pilots on the market with


Common sense would say that you're right about heavy jet guys getting hired first. But as I found out last fall in new hire class at a regional, that is not always the case. I myself came from another airline only to find that several of the new hires had less than 400 hours and never worked in a flying position. Pretty scary. But if you want to hire someone you can mold and aviod someone with baggage from an industry that eats it's young, then why not if you're in management. What not a better way to get more for less. For the new guy to the game, he'd be happy to fly a narrow body for around 100 G. In return the company gets a good attitude and someone they can mold. Another great trick they've come up with has been to pit mainline vs wholly owned vs contract carrier. They've got us so pissed at eachother, that many us of look forward to flying the others routes. Is it right? Hell no! Is it happening? You bet.

Jegermeister, You're post is correct of course. The thing to add is that, with lots of experienced pilots on the market, the new guys will have no where to go to except regional airlines where they may have to pay money to the company to hire them instead of the experienced guys. Colgan is doing it now. A job like Colgan could become a dead end job unless they are again willing to shell out some cash for training since other airlines will catch on to this to as they have in the past. Unfortunately it's all starting to go that way again.

 

[SkyWstman]

How many guys that have a gazilian hours would even bother to go back to flying? I mean your a captain at big UAL. Your company liquidates. You were used to making 242.00 an hour as a 767 captain before the pay cuts. You took pay cuts and still the company goes under. You did the regional thing 20 years ago. How many guys are gonna start over making 19.00 an hour as a first officer on a regional jet? I think they are going to sell Real Estate before they are going to offer their experience for pennies on the dollar.

 

[WhiteCloud]

How many guys that have a gazilian hours would even bother to go back to flying? I mean your a captain at big UAL. Your company liquidates. You were used to making 242.00 an hour as a 767 captain before the pay cuts. You took pay cuts and still the company goes under. You did the regional thing 20 years ago. How many guys are gonna start over making 19.00 an hour as a first officer on a regional jet? I think they are going to sell Real Estate before they are going to offer their experience for pennies on the dollar.

That's true to a point. I think many folks in that position will look for a good coporate job or do what many of them did when Eastern an Pan Am went bust.....they tried to create an upstart airline(s). Very few would try to get a regional job unless they were hired as management or a training capacity or they just wanted to fly and, since they already have made their money, it would be like a flying club to them. Personally I want UAL to get it back together and start hiring all the younger pilots on the seniority list above me.