What happens if we go to war?

[Floyd94]

What happens to the industry if we go to war? Without a doubt its going to be detremental, the questions is, How bad is it going to be? Are there more furloughs to be expected? Iv'e heard rumors that oil could go up to $75 a barrell. Maybe even more bankruptcies?

Discuss.

 

[ceo_of_the_sofa]

Expensive oil=expensive fuel=expensive tickets...
Travel (leisure), is sort of an elastic good...people could live without it, to a certain extent...and if the prices are high, the demand will probably slump
Now, with that said, if the war is a prolonged effort, with other players being drawn in...there may be a further need for more pilots, to cover for those that die in the conflict...which in turn may level out the field for the furloughees...???
I don't know, how was it during GW1?

 

[Draginass]

Oil at $75 is BS. However, you can expect massive furloughes as business drops and it gives airline mangements the excuse to invoke force majuere and abbrogate contractural no-furlough agreements.

 

[2000flyer]

No doubt the economy will continue it's slow recovery. Any war brings economic worry. As for the number of furloughs, thats anyone's guess. War or not, I'm sure we haven't seen the last of them anyway.

Iv'e heard rumors that oil could go up to $75 a barrell

I doubt we'd see a double in oil prices. I don't remember them doubling during desert storm. If they do, I'm sure we're all in a lot of trouble!

Regards,

2000Flyer

 

[Andy Neill]

Try this scenario:

During the war, many furloughed pilots (and lineholding pilots) are called to active duty in their reserve and air guard units resulting in many furloughees bringing in a paycheck for flying.

War is immensely successful and Iraqi oil is now freely available in the market place.

Of course, neither is a valid casus belli , but may come into play if we do get into it.

 

[TurboS7]

On the other hand World Airways had to curtail their ops due to the fact that all their pilots had "FAR'd out." Massive layoffs in the major airline sector, a lot of demand on the charter sector, before, during and after the war.