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Usair retirement numbers?
- Thread starter jim718181
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I can't give you the exact numbers but starting December 2012 we (east side) will start retiring about 200 to 250 a year for the next ten years which would make any new hire a captain in about 6 years....unless we have another 9-11 or oil at 500 bucks a barrel.
Yes, that is the combined East and West pilot groups. There are currently 3415 pilots on the East.
grog_sit_reserv
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Tweaker
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I also don't have exact figures, but trust me I have them pretty well in the front of my brainpan.
There are only 12 or so in 2012 (2 weeks of course)
150 or so in 2013 (not very many, but 8 A330's arrive for growth)
It doesn't really get huge until 2015-2017 (when A350 XWB start to appear)
Also, there are 3500 East pilots, but due to so many out for a variety of reasons, medical being the largest, there are only 2000 or so active pilots.
Summary, it ain't as impressive as you may think, especially because many of the age 65 retirements are going to be pilots already not active. (no need to replace them)
Add to the mix the West pilots (don't even start flinging poop) and it dilutes the retirement numbers even further.
Still better than any other airline retirement numbers, but so much could change that it is mostly a pipe dream or at least counting of chickens before they hatch.
There are only 12 or so in 2012 (2 weeks of course)
150 or so in 2013 (not very many, but 8 A330's arrive for growth)
It doesn't really get huge until 2015-2017 (when A350 XWB start to appear)
Also, there are 3500 East pilots, but due to so many out for a variety of reasons, medical being the largest, there are only 2000 or so active pilots.
Summary, it ain't as impressive as you may think, especially because many of the age 65 retirements are going to be pilots already not active. (no need to replace them)
Add to the mix the West pilots (don't even start flinging poop) and it dilutes the retirement numbers even further.
Still better than any other airline retirement numbers, but so much could change that it is mostly a pipe dream or at least counting of chickens before they hatch.
reepicheep
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A-V-8
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I went to a Kit Darby seminar a few years back. He had the Intel on every airline. The U.S. Airways group will experience the highest percentage of attrition of any airline in the first 5 years of attrition. I don’t have the numbers but I intend to scan that thing and put the numbers up here for everyone. The U.S. Airways group was the oldest and the America West group was the 3rd youngest. They combined to make the oldest.
Actually, if you look at their accident record, it would be the most "extinguished"!
Crzipilot
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I posted this in the other thread too....
Since no one can do a search. Here ya go. Close as you will probably find. Add 5 to the years to adjust for age 65 retirement. Also, obviously in the earlier years, some of those numbers may be lower as some guys have already left or medical out.
Airways retirement numbers, East and West pilot groups. Of those that were active 3/1/06:
Yr. East West
08 143 46
09 185 47
10 163 52
11 191 44
12 214 65
13 220 51
14 231 71
15 206 69
16 185 68
17 159 66
18 162 85
19 112 78
20 113 88
21 73 90
22 57 94
23 18 77
24 10 92
25 1 94
Year 2025 equals 100% of US East pilots retired that were active on the seniority list as of 3/1/2006. After 2025 there are still 25% of the West list remaining, or about 500 pilots with the last one retireing in 2039.
Of the recent recalls to the east side, There will be a smattering increase of retirement numbers through the years. If everyone had accepted recall, the youngest pilot on the seniority list would have retired in 2035. Still 4 years before the youngest America West guy. Kinda of hard to pull the numbers out, but looking at the East retirements, including those on furloughed, the numbers look like this.
Yr East
08 177
09 232
10 194
11 246
12 267
13 283
14 289
15 289
16 292
17 255
18 261
19 209
20 222
21 168
22 165
23 148
24 118
25 97
26 103
27 109
28 69
29 68
30 62
31 47
32 27
33 15
34 4
35 4
Since no one can do a search. Here ya go. Close as you will probably find. Add 5 to the years to adjust for age 65 retirement. Also, obviously in the earlier years, some of those numbers may be lower as some guys have already left or medical out.
Airways retirement numbers, East and West pilot groups. Of those that were active 3/1/06:
Yr. East West
08 143 46
09 185 47
10 163 52
11 191 44
12 214 65
13 220 51
14 231 71
15 206 69
16 185 68
17 159 66
18 162 85
19 112 78
20 113 88
21 73 90
22 57 94
23 18 77
24 10 92
25 1 94
Year 2025 equals 100% of US East pilots retired that were active on the seniority list as of 3/1/2006. After 2025 there are still 25% of the West list remaining, or about 500 pilots with the last one retireing in 2039.
Of the recent recalls to the east side, There will be a smattering increase of retirement numbers through the years. If everyone had accepted recall, the youngest pilot on the seniority list would have retired in 2035. Still 4 years before the youngest America West guy. Kinda of hard to pull the numbers out, but looking at the East retirements, including those on furloughed, the numbers look like this.
Yr East
08 177
09 232
10 194
11 246
12 267
13 283
14 289
15 289
16 292
17 255
18 261
19 209
20 222
21 168
22 165
23 148
24 118
25 97
26 103
27 109
28 69
29 68
30 62
31 47
32 27
33 15
34 4
35 4
Here's what I came up with when using a 2009 seniority list a few years ago. I've tried different ways to paste it but most look poorly formatted. Sorry
Turns 65 EAST WEST TOTAL Cumulative
2012 9 2 11 11
2013 151 41 192 203
2014 212 43 255 458
2015 225 51 276 734
2016 229 44 273 1007
2017 241 63 304 1311
2018 259 52 311 1622
2019 257 76 333 1955
2020 242 68 310 2265
2021 249 65 314 2579
2022 204 65 269 2848
2023 219 83 302 3150
2024 164 77 241 3391
2025 175 86 261 3652
2026 122 88 210 3862
2027 111 92 203 4065
2028 80 77 157 4222
2029 57 91 148 4370
2030 42 90 132 4502
Turns 65 EAST WEST TOTAL Cumulative
2012 9 2 11 11
2013 151 41 192 203
2014 212 43 255 458
2015 225 51 276 734
2016 229 44 273 1007
2017 241 63 304 1311
2018 259 52 311 1622
2019 257 76 333 1955
2020 242 68 310 2265
2021 249 65 314 2579
2022 204 65 269 2848
2023 219 83 302 3150
2024 164 77 241 3391
2025 175 86 261 3652
2026 122 88 210 3862
2027 111 92 203 4065
2028 80 77 157 4222
2029 57 91 148 4370
2030 42 90 132 4502
Tweaker
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No you di'ent!
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