United April Traffic

[250scp]

CHICAGO, May 5

United Airlines today reported its traffic results for April 2004. United reported its highest-ever April passenger load factor of 79.9%, up 8.5 points over April 2003. Total scheduled revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased in April 2004 by 25.8% on a capacity increase of 12.4% available seat miles (ASMs) vs. the same period in 2003.

Good news for UAL...huge jump in Pacific traffic will hopefully set the tone for a great summer season. Legacy airlines will show they can still make money in other arenas without having to go on a large scale toe to toe with LCCs.

 

[a320drivr]

Thats great but what were the yields?

 

[NYRANGERS]

Thats great but what were the yields?

You must fly for jetblue. No wonder people are starting to tire of some of the jetblue pilot comments.

But I will add this


ATLANTA, May 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Delta Air Lines DAL today reported traffic results for the month of April 2004. System traffic for April 2004 increased 21.4 percent from April 2003 on a capacity increase of 15.0 percent. Delta's system load factor was 74.4 percent in April 2004, up 3.9 points from the same period last year.

Domestic traffic in April 2004 increased 16.3 percent year over year while capacity increased 11.7 percent. Domestic load factor in April 2004 was 73.3 percent, up 2.9 points from the same period one year ago. International traffic in April 2004 increased 43.3 percent year over year on a 29.4 percent increase in capacity. International load factor was 78.4 percent, up 7.6 points from April 2003.

During April 2004, Delta operated its schedule at a 99.4 percent completion rate, compared to 99.6 percent in April 2003. Delta boarded 9,200,420 passengers during the month of April 2004, an increase of 12.0 percent from April 2003. Detailed traffic and capacity are attached.

 

[NYRANGERS]

Thats great but what were the yields?

Take Delta's 9.2 million pax for April, average $200 a ticket (low number), thats $1.8 Billion for April, or......a profitable month.

Better times ahead.

NYR

 

[Dizel8]

"But I will add this"

Thats great, you must be rooting for Delta!

 

[MedFlyer]

Take Delta's 9.2 million pax for April, average $200 a ticket (low number), thats $1.8 Billion for April, or......a profitable month.

Better times ahead.

NYR

Your numbers are little off.

Take a look at 1st quarter 2004. DL carried 25,342,000 and earned 3.05 Billion in passenger revenues. Using those two numbers, you get an average ticket price of $120. If we use the $120 figure for April, we get a total income of about $1.1Billion in passenger revenue.

Now, I would tend to guess that DL's April airfares are a little higher than the 1st Qtr average, so I would say DL probably brought in closer to $1.2Billion in passenger revenue. If you then add in other revenue (cargo,etc), DL probably brought in about $1.3Billion in total revenue. Based on DL's costs from the 1st Quarter, I would estimate operating costs to be about $1.25 Billion.

So, DL makes about a $50 million dollar operating profit. However, if you factor in other non-operating expenses (interest,etc), I would say DL still takes a net loss in April...probably somewhere in the range of $50-70 million.


As for UA's and DL's April traffic numbers...they are indeed very good. However, comparisons to last year are hard to make because of the war and SARS (more of an impact on UA then DL).

 

[FDJ2]

So, DL makes about a $50 million dollar operating profit. However, if you factor in other non-operating expenses (interest,etc), I would say DL still takes a net loss in April...probably somewhere in the range of $50-70 million.

If you take away about $100M in depreciation, which is a charge and not a cash outlay, DAL is cash flow positive about $50M for the month. If you then consider that CASM declined in the first quarter and RASM increased and that this trend will probably continue, DAL may actually be profitable overall, even after making RJ debt payments. If you than consider that DAL had $300M more in unrestricted cash at the beginning of April then it did last year, it even looks better. But this is all speculation, since these numbers are not published for DAL on a monthly basis.

All we really know is that the load factor was up 3.9%, traffic was up 21.4% and capacity was up 15%. We can only guess at the rest, but it does look like 2004 will be a far better year than 2003. Particularly if RASM continues to improve and CASM continues to decrease with the increase in capacity. In April CAL reported an increase in RASM of 3.5%, which hopefully is an industry wide trend.

 

[Ty Webb]

Whoooo-dogggeeee!

Y'say Delta was CASH POSITIVE in one of the best months of the year, if you disregard depreciation?

I'm impressed . . . . . . not!

The dinosaur (err, "Legacy") carriers are going to continue to hemmorhage money until they realize one simple fact: "Marketshare" only counts if you can make money at "market price". Pure and simple.

As long as they keep ignoring that reality, they will lose money until the bitter end.

As the Reverend James Brown sang in The Blues Brothers:

"Wake up . . . . Don't be lost when the time comes ....."

 

[FDJ2]

Actually Ty, I said declaring profits or losses for April was all speculation. Those numbers aren't published. The only thing we know about the April numbers is the impressive rebound in traffic for the legacy carriers. DAL, NWA and UAL increased their RPMs by approximately 700M each year over year, not bad, particularly since RPM growth is significantly out pacing ASM growth. Are the legacy carriers getting more revenue from their pax? Who knows, only CAL published those numbers and they show a 3.5% increase year over year. Most everything else is just speculation.

 

[a320drivr]

Hey NYRANGERS,
Yes I do fly for jetblue but what has that got to do with anything. My post was anything but a slam on UAL. High load factors are great but what matters is yield, CASM, and RASM. I will be the first to tell you that our yields to the west coast were horrible last quarter with the increased competition.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Yeah, but what about the yield?

And no I don't work for JetBlue.

BTW, why does someone have to work at JetBlue to get numbers that matter the most? Are JetBlue guys/gals the only smart pilots out there?

 

[NYRANGERS]

Whoooo-dogggeeee!

Y'say Delta was CASH POSITIVE in one of the best months of the year, if you disregard depreciation?

I'm impressed . . . . . . not!

Actually, May, June, July and August are better months than April. So is March . But real close Ty.