UAL recall rumor

[Andy]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I pulled this off of the UAL ALPA board:

[font=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva][size=-1]All,

I was in and out of ORD OPS yesterday (8/25) while the chief pilot was having a town hall type meeting. My total time there amounted to about 10 minutes or so. I asked him 2 questions: 1) Why the TK ramp up and 2), what about the guppy hours.

The answer to the guppy hours was not earth shattering, and has been discussed here before. X # of guppies to be parked due to less than favorable lease conditions and something like a 10% (not sure on this figure) hit on guppy hours.

The answer to the "why is TK ramping up" cought me by surprise.

I'm paraphrasing here, but the reason is simple. They are getting ready for some seat training, blah, blah, blah.

But, he did say the company has realized we were about 30 crews (60 pilots) short over the summer. Seems the beancounters, were treating the pilots like widgets. On paper it looked good and if more productivity was needed, simply tell the widgets to work harder. Eventually, the widgets, being human after all, couldn't "just work harder" and the house of cards collapsed. Nothing new here either.

BUT.........the Chief Pilot did say we are looking to RECALL some pilots, PROBABLY BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. No firm numbers on the number. Good news if true and I will believe it when I see it.

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[font=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva][size=-1]Note: I am not the author, I do not know the author, and I do not know the probability of this being true. ... since I'm 1500 from recall, it'll take quite a few numbers before my phone rings.
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[Boz]

Hey Bro,

I have heard the talk of recalls lately too. I would take it with a grain of salt as we have yet to have Forte or anyone from WHQ mention this. I believe they have discovered that they where short this summer and with upcoming retirements this will hopefully lead to furloughees being called back no matter how small the number. It is certainly a positive change and hopefully some of the moth balled wide bodies come out of the desert sun to get utilized for the heavy international routes. BA's current situation does help but we were full before this recent incident at BA. I hope we concentrate on more lucrative international routes and hopefully someone at WHQ will realize that we need to start up with the frieght ops again. Like anything time will tell, I am just hoping they get on the ball and not sit back and watch our star alliance partners get the good stuff and eave us high and dry as we have been for so long.

All in all it is better news for the last round of furloughees and hopefully you all will be back on property within a few years.

good luck

 

[Andy]

Boz,

Thanks for the words. I'm doing pretty well; the furlough hasn't hurt me financially. I've been able to work AF Reserve full time since being furloughed in Mar 02 with a few small breaks in pay. I just applied for a GS-14 job (I'm not guaranteed the job, but a couple of the people who make the selection encouraged me to apply; I view that as a pretty good sign). By the time that recall rolls around, I'll probably take a bypass on the first pass if I get this GS job. I'm retirement eligible from the Reserve in Mar '05, so I'd probably retire when recalled and then see if I could trip drop/use vacation time (from both jobs) to the point of working the GS job along with fly for UAL. I don't plan on returning to UAL without a safety net; this industry is far too unstable for my liking.
My thanks to you and every other pilot still on property for busting a$$ and keeping UAL afloat this last summer; I've read that it's been a grueling schedule.

Frats,
Andy

 

[SWA/FO]

Nice to have options.

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

I wouldnt put too much faith in recalls..

If the bean counters are that short sighted,id tend to wait before jumping back on for awhile..
There are a number of historical examples of why it sometime pays to sit out the first round of recalls..

While everyone has different reasons for jumping back aboard a sinking ship..

Do NOT put any current employment on the back burner for a POSSIBLE shot at recall..

Mike

 

[Boz]

Mike,

You make a good point about not putting any faith in recalls. That is exactly why so many furloughees have been looking for a job with other carriers. I am happy to see that JetBlue, Frontier, America West, Air Tran, Southwest, etc... have been gracious enough to interview and hire furloughees from UAL and other carriers.

It would be absolutly foolish to put all your eggs in one basket with the current health of the airline industry. I think there are many furloughees like Andy that have kept there options open and will make that decision one day when recalled to be based on the facts and health of the airline.

With close to 2200 pilots on furlough from UAL there are going to be guys that will be on at one of those carriers mentioned above that are going to be in a position to upgrade or not what to disrupt there quality of life and bypass recall or flat out reject it.

So only time will tell (out of the aprox. 2200 pilots) how they will base there decisons on. Just looking at the seniority list you can see the age of pilots and I am sure many will be in a situation that they will have greater career success with another carrier or be in a different feild alltogether. For the younger guys that got hired in there mid to late 20's I am sure they will have a chance to return to UAL and have a 20-25 year careers at either UAL or if fortunate enough with one of the other airlines again mentioned above.

One thing is for certain and that is that furloughees everywhere are not sitting idle and awaiting to be recalled. They are out there busting there butts striving to get back in the show. Keep as many options as possible open and control your future before it is determined for you.

Andy is a perfect example of a pilot who has gone out and created options that allow him to stay current and have a choice once recalled. I have seen on our ALPA fulroughed board how the furloughees help one another with insight as to who is hiring, asking questions and networking to help one another out during this downturn. I recently saw a post where the pilot is furloughed from 2 airlines and recently got on with a third. This is one determined guy that is not willing to be sidelined. Talk about keeping your options open.

Anyway, it certainly is great to see this pilot group help one another out regardless if you are active or non-active employee of UAL and I am sure the same goes for the other airlines in United's situation.

Still keeping the faith!

 

[Andy]

Andy is a perfect example of a pilot who has gone out and created options that allow him to stay current and have a choice once recalled.

Boz,
I'm anything BUT current. The last time I flew was Sep 2002. I switched over to a desk job with the Reserve for stability + to learn some skills outside of aviation. I am currently in an organization that is heavily involved in post-911 security issues; a skill transferrable and in demand in the civilian world. It looks like my efforts will pay off with a decent GS position. While I miss flying, I'm trying to be pragmatic about it; I think that the glory days of being a pilot are rear view mirror, and pilots will be paid blue collar wages in the not too distant future.

Frats,
Andy

 

[potrack]

Andy, great post.

You know how the rumors have went at UAL. "Out of BK by June 30th", yeah right. Hard to see them paying for training and more pilots when oil prices are so high and their struggling with BK and all that. Sad to say the dudes that are on the line now will continue to work hard to pull the company...with no break.

As with anything on the rumor mill at UAL, I'll wait till I actually see guys getting recalled then add a few years to that and that is when they should get to me.

Until I actually see it happen, I won't get my panties in a wad sweating the rumors. Like you, I have decided to work another job in aviation, still stay in the Reserve, and keep pressing.................still keeping an eye on UAL. I was at TK a few months ago..............ghost town.......

 

[farmboy]

i would look at another carrier and forget about ual..what are you going back for?? lower than average pay, no retirement, 12 days off a month, on reserve for several years, all to be possibly furloughed one week after you get called back!!!!!!!!!! farmboy(ual fuloughee)

 

[Boz]

ANDY wrote:
I'm anything BUT current. The last time I flew was Sep 2002. I switched over to a desk job with the Reserve for stability.

Hey Andy,

I guess I should not have assumed it was a flying position, my bad. Anyway, I do think UAL is still an option even though it seems so depressing in its current state. God luck to you and all who are furloughed in making the decision to return to flying one day.

Boz

 

[tranceport]

fwiw-through the rumor mill I've heard: Parkin 28 737's by Sept/Oct with the possibility of a total of 40 by year end. United, like many carries, is operating lean on pilots all the while retirements continue.

Can't see getting too hopeful for many recalls because there are other variables- reduction in winter seasonal flying; preferential bidding system being implemented will reduce numbers needed; losing the pension liability will be a wild card on fleet/routes; the bk exit 'plan' that will eventually be submitted to the bk judge will show any major fleet or staffing changes and that is dependant on other variables. (add your own) (btw, I do not work for Ual nor furloughed, just have many friend there)

here was a positive article in the local Chicago paper for fa's the other day-

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0408280064aug28,1,6358985.story Busier United recalling more flight attendants

By Melissa Allison
Tribune staff reporter

August 28, 2004

United Airlines plans to recall 375 more flight attendants than expected this fall because of fuller planes and an increase in international flights.

The carrier, which has been recalling furloughed fight attendants since early this year, already planned to recall 371 on Oct. 31.

In January, the airline had 15,300 active flight attendants and 5,100 on furlough, all voluntarily.

United also ran into scheduling problems this summer, which have led it to the "difficult decision to declare critical coverage," Todd Arkenberg, director of flight attendant scheduling and support, wrote in a letter Friday to flight attendants.

In this rare action that the flight attendants union blames on mismanagement, United essentially asks or requires flight attendants to work more hours than their contract calls for at the end of a designated period of time.

The dates in this case are Aug. 28 through Aug. 30, and it is unclear how many flight attendants will be affected. Those that work the extra hours will be paid time and a half.

A United spokeswoman said the move was necessary because of bad weather, air-traffic-control problems and full planes during the summer that have led to flight attendants working longer hours than expected.

On its Web site, the Association of Flight Attendants said, "As a result of additional failures by United management, the company finds itself in a position of being critically short on flight attendants."

United filed for bankruptcy protection in December 2002.

 

[RightBettor]

I'm one of those guys who will be the last to get recalled. But, as I've said before, I am done chasing fuselages and dollars. There will be plenty of UAL furloughees who won't answer the recall. I am happy here at WN and will be working on my golf game more as time goes on. Hopefully, I will be able to break 100 soon. (The more I practice, the luckier I get.) Best wishes to all those at United. There are plenty of good people there. Hope the WHQ folks realize it... then again I might break 80 by next week too.

 

[GuppyPuppy]

I'm one of those guys who will be the last to get recalled. But, as I've said before, I am done chasing fuselages and dollars. There will be plenty of UAL furloughees who won't answer the recall. I am happy here at WN and will be working on my golf game more as time goes on. Hopefully, I will be able to break 100 soon. (The more I practice, the luckier I get.) Best wishes to all those at United. There are plenty of good people there. Hope the WHQ folks realize it... then again I might break 80 by next week too.

I figure if I break 100 in golf or bowling, I'm doing OK!

Hey RB...I'm with you. QOL and a decent, liveable wage. I'm about 1200 from recall and not looking for it anytime soon. There is a good possibility that when recall comes for me that I'd have to take a sizeable paycut to go back to UAL anyway. And then sit on the bottom of the list, on reserve in a domicile that I don't want to be in just hoping that whenever another "economic downturn" happens that I won't get f-ed. Add to that the strong possiblity that I'll never see my A-plan money at UAL. Oh, and I'd also be giving up 1.95% of my pay to help fund Duane Woerth's bid for congress. Hmmmm.....

Congrats on SWA. I'm sure you'll have a happy and prosperous career.

GP

 

[Boz]

Guppypuppy & WrightBettor,


I agree with you guys, in the fact that when you do get a recall notification you will probably be in a better situation the the current state. It almost seems foolish to chase money, fleets, seats, whatever your hearts desires are. Good luck to all furloughed at United and elsewhere. Just find a home and enjoy this job. I am sure if I was in your situation, i would be facing many tough decisions but most important to me would be my family life and the my job security. Fly safe fellas and keep working on that golf game!

 

[Publishers]

ual

ual is estimated to layoff another 6000 people total under new reorganization plan

 

[General Lee]

Mostly ground people, and then rehire them back at 1/3 the pay rate. That has happened to a lot of Delta outstation people. They also announced the callback of 375 stews. Figure that one out.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[tranceport]

ual is estimated to layoff another 6000 people total under new reorganization plan

really? who or what dept. in ual stated that?

are you quoting 'ual' or an 'airline analyst' (ie ray neidle)?

 

[skykid]

Easy now

I like the positive thinking and am also excited about needing more FAs for the increase in international flying. But, remember United announced the parking of I think around 23 737s a long time ago, and its finally about to happen. IF the number doesn't go up, that's about 250 less pilots needed. That just about takes care of the 90 seat upgrade bid, this Summers pilot shortage, and cancels out retirement attrition.

My opinion is unless United can successfully gut the defined pensions, they'll park all the 737s, along with 100s, if not past 1000 more furloughs. That might stave off CH7 for awhile, but I doubt survival is possible w/o that feed (or with it going to someone else). If the pensions go, its a different story - my opinion is recalls in 2006 or 2007. Hope its sooner!

 

[Andy]

On the 6000 additional layoffs ... from what I've read, that number was backward engineered by a news organization based on UAL's attempt to reduce wage costs. I don't know how true that is; we'll have to wait and see. UAL management has not announced 6000 layoffs.
Here's the article: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8c0269ae-fb97-11d8-8ad5-00000e2511c8,stream=FTSynd,s01=2.html
The reduction of 6000 personnel is based purely on the paper's speculation. However, one way to reduce personnel would be to farm the call centers out to India/Pakistan/the Philippines. That alone would reduce costs (and headcount).

Here's another quote from the UAL ALPA board:
"I was in ORD ops when Bob Jordon was speaking. I recall he mentioned 20-50 when the recalls start and it should be before the holidays. I felt the important part of this subject was not so much the number per month but the fact that the chief pilot was stating that we are getting ready to "recall" brothers/sisters off the street.He also stated that there is a rather large wide-body bid coming but they are uncertain of how to man it due to the likely event that the F/O slots will be filled with existing 320/300 captains that are in fact already at low levels. Lastly, there have been 357 early retirements so far this year and the company realizes that "if" the A-Fund is terminated there may be more which will require even more returns."

I disagree with the last assertion; that there will be additional retirements if the A fund is terminated; if the A fund is terminated, I would expect NO early retirements. (The partial lump sum would not be available). I think that we've seen the last of the early retirements due to pension issues.

As for the parking of the guppies, this has been programmed for a long time. My understanding is that fleet utilization will increase among the remaining aircraft to partially mitigate the loss of airframes. I haven't seen (nor have I looked for) system block hour projections, but that's a better indication of whether or not UAL will need to further reduce its pilot force. However, it would be extremely odd to be recalling some crewmembers (FAs) while furloughing other crewmembers (pilots). And I doubt that the FA recalls are due to early retirements.

This is a glass half empty vs half full thing. Personally, I expect to see 100-300 pilot recalls before summer 2005, with recalls ceasing in April 2005. IF UAL management decides to get aggressive against LCCs and pump up the block hours, 300 recalls could be a low figure. IF the economy takes another dumper/there's another aviation scare/crude oil prices remain high/etc, etc, there could be zero recalls.
Either way, I'm not waiting next to the phone. I've got 1500 in front of me, and even if they need to call three to fill one seat, I won't get called.

Again, I'd like to thank every UAL employee out there for keeping the company alive. I've had my doubts, but it feels like it's starting to turn the corner. I know that most positions are undermanned and everyone's killing themselves trying to get the job done. I know the LCO flying is brutal for the pilots. For those UAL pilots out there still flying the line, I know you're busy, but try to take a moment every once in a while and thank our CSRs. They're busting chops out there and a couple of kind words go a long way, especially from an 'evil' pilot. I thank them for their hard work every time I nonrev (thanks UAL ALPA for giving me nonrev passes while on furlough).

 

[GroundHog]

Recalls Anounced

Flight Ops just announced recalls starting in November, with 40 recalled by the end of the year.