the ECLIPSE JET failure?

[mzaharis]

Here's another VLJ skeptic - market analyst Richard Aboulafia. He predicts a market of only a few hundred a year.

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=211
Here's a pithy comment:

"Take a moment to consider the air taxi customer, that oddest of ducks. He has more travel cash than an airline passenger, but not enough to be in a real business jet. Nor does he have enough to buy into a jet card program or to use existing air charter operators. He doesn’t want or need to fly more than two hours/1,000 miles at a time. And you need enough of him in enough markets to avoid a high percentage of deadhead flights, but not too many of him in these markets to justify decent airline service."

"These plans won’t work with just any old plane. Never mind that you could prove the concept using thousands of depreciated, low-cost, service-tested jets and props out there. You apparently need a new VLJ to make air taxi magic happen. And of course you need enough enthusiastic investors to turn these unfunded air taxi plans into reality. VLJs might let a few new charter operators make some cash, but we’re talking a few score aircraft, not thousands."

http://www.aiaa.org/aerospace/images/articleimages/pdf/insightsmay05.pdf
(See the end of this article)

"If investors succeed in creating an air

taxi service, one or more light jet designs
could succeed, helping the business jet
market to resume its once-impressive
growth rate. But it is also possible that,
despite all the publicity and attention, the
very light jet market will support just a
few hundred inexpensive aircraft per
year. The Cessna Mustang will go ahead
because it was proposed by one of the established
manufacturers, and because the
price—$2.5 million—makes no assumptions
about mass production. Probably
another player will succeed as well, making
the most of a limited but new market. ​

In short, microjets will not provide the
next revolutionary stimulant that transforms
the industry."

 

[ackattacker]

I like the Eclipse jet... but I agree that these VLJ air-taxi's are doomed to failure. There is simply not enough market utilization to justify it. And their marketing seems to be all about the avionics... All that gee-whiz appeals to owner pilots, not air taxi customers... they care about price, comfort, and convience. The charter price for these jets is not going to be much cheaper than say a King Air C90.

Also, the performance figures Eclipse quotes are suspect. For example, they quote a takeoff distance that is "all engines" and then compare it to other aircraft part 25 takeoff distances. Anyone who takes their eclipse jet into a 2300' strip is frankly an idiot, yet they trumpet this number all over their web site. Their cruise speeds are quoted at MCT instead of cruise power. At reasonable power settings the numbers start to look very similar to turboprop numbers such as a TBM850. (which has more range and more payload).

Again I like the jet... but I would hesitate to buy one. I think this Blogger is right and Eclipse jet is not going to sell enough to make money. In a few years they will fold and leave the owners with little in the way of support...

 

[time builder]

It seems that the ecipse needs to prove that its operating cost effficiency outweighs its cost of aquisition. And I don't mean taking it out of the pilot's paycheck.

 

[cezzna]

I don't see how it can work either. They only fly during the day, always come back to base at night, NO weekend flying? Huh? I know the bazillion dollar computer program says it will work, but I just don't see it.

I think the smart players are on the sidelines. They'll watch this develop and fail in a few years and then buy the reamains for pennies on the dollar. The infrastructure will be there, the network, the maintenance, etc. Someone will turn it into a fractional for the jet-set wannabes. That or it will modernize the night cargo fleet.