STOP awaiting the "HIRING BOOM" Move on

[BrickTop]

Do yourselves the courtesy and admit defeat to a well planned and executed fallacy. Leave now and preserve your time in life for the true enjoyment you seek. There NEVER will be a shortage or mass hiring era, seeking qualified pilots or desperate measures to fill empty seats. Stop falling victim to flashy cliches created by fortunate seniors like; "Pay your dues" or subscribing to an impending qualification deficit. The industry has cleverly brainwashed each of us to believe that one day all our sacrifices will be rewarded with our career ambitions and eventually happiness will prevail from years of dedication and tolerance. The ever morphing nature of this industry will continue to "squeak by" on its current staffing levels and capacity while operational changes and regulations continue to derail your career plans as airlines, lobbyists and pilots collaborate and conflict. Do yourself and favor and STOP waiting. If you are in an enjoyable livable aviation position, congratulations, your luck in "timing" was your fortune. For all others Stop wasting your hearts souls and families to the despicable nature of this career. Is is NOT going to change. Move on and enjoy life elsewhere.

 

[Bob Dylan]

It is possible to hit the lottery in this business. Just ask the AirTran guys.

The trick is not to screw up or squander once in a lifetime opportunities- like SWA buying out your tiny little airline with a crappy contract.

 

[bri5150]

Do yourselves the courtesy and admit defeat to a well planned and executed fallacy. Leave now and preserve your time in life for the true enjoyment you seek. There NEVER will be a shortage or mass hiring era, seeking qualified pilots or desperate measures to fill empty seats. The industry has cleverly brainwashed each of us to believe that one day all our sacrifices will be rewarded with our career ambitions and eventually happiness will prevail from years of dedication and tolerance. The ever morphing nature of this industry will continue to "squeak by" on its current staffing levels and capacity while operational changes and regulations continue to derail your career plans as airlines, lobbyists and pilots collaborate and conflict. Do yourself and favor and STOP waiting. If you are in an enjoyable livable aviation position, congratulations, your luck in "timing" was your fortune. For all others Stop wasting your hearts souls and families to the despicable nature of this career. Is is NOT going to change. Move on and enjoy life elsewhere.

You know there is a point in between "hiring boom/pilot shortage" and no hiring at all right? You make it sound like everyone is going to be in their current position for the next 30 years. I highly doubt that will happen.

 

[BrickTop]

I wager the BOTTOM 30% will ALWAYS be the BOTTOM 30%. For those lucky enough to be in the top 60%. You will fair. If you are a regional F.O. with ambitions of a MAJOR 767-757-777 Captain seat; STOP KIDDING YOURSELF. You were not fortunate enough in timing. You will likely spend you entire career chasing a pipe dream. Get out or live in the reality of your likely career threshold.

 

[bri5150]

I wager the BOTTOM 30% will ALWAYS be the BOTTOM 30%. For those lucky enough to be in the top 60%. You will fair. If you are a regional F.O. with ambitions of a MAJOR 767-757-777 Captain seat; STOP KIDDING YOURSELF. You were not fortunate enough in timing. You will likely spend you entire career chasing a pipe dream. Get out or live in the reality of your likely career threshold.

That makes no sense. Someone is going to have to fly them when people retire. They may not be on it as long as some have been, but some will get there. The only way what you are saying could happen was if everyone was the same age, or they just phased them out as people retired.

 

[kf4amu]

I wager the BOTTOM 30% will ALWAYS be the BOTTOM 30%. For those lucky enough to be in the top 60%. You will fair. If you are a regional F.O. with ambitions of a MAJOR 767-757-777 Captain seat; STOP KIDDING YOURSELF. You were not fortunate enough in timing. You will likely spend you entire career chasing a pipe dream. Get out or live in the reality of your likely career threshold.

The top 60 percent of USAirways East seniority list will retire in the next 7 years.

If you are on the bottom 30 percent right now you will be on the top 30 percent 7 years from now. Not a bad place to be (USAir's hostile culture and ********************ty contract notwithstanding) if you are just getting hired at 30-35 years old.

The seniority dispute will resolve, pay will increase significantly although nowhere near what it should be, so you can't look at today's environment as how it will be forever.

The only thing that will not change is the hostile attitude toward the employees.

 

[General Lee]

I wager the BOTTOM 30% will ALWAYS be the BOTTOM 30%. For those lucky enough to be in the top 60%. You will fair. If you are a regional F.O. with ambitions of a MAJOR 767-757-777 Captain seat; STOP KIDDING YOURSELF. You were not fortunate enough in timing. You will likely spend you entire career chasing a pipe dream. Get out or live in the reality of your likely career threshold.

So, Delta is saying they will lose 7600 pilots in the next 15 years due to age 65, if they go that long anyway. There are currently about 12,000 pilots at Delta. I guess you are saying those bottom 4400 will always be the bottom 30%? And you are saying that Delta will eventually shrink to only 4400 pilots? Is that when Delta starts flying drones? I think this is a good time to be at a Regional, the flood gates will open for almost every Major. AA, UAL, CAL, and USAir (not really a great one though) all have NOT had very many retirments yet, and they are getting old. Half of the senior DL guys (mostly NWA pilots) will also be leaving. That means lots of future hiring within the next 5 years most likely. Now, if you want to go to Southwest, well, they have about 150 scheduled retirements per year over the next 10 or so years, and with the young Airtran group, it could mean stagnation. But, if you want to fly for a Legacy, I would say your timing is good if you are at a Regional right now, unless you are BrickTop, AKA Debbie Downer.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Taco Rocket]

unless you are BrickTop, AKA Debbie Downer.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Is Debbie on downers or just drunk after facing reality?

 

[jws717]

Its not over until you cast your last dice.

 

[jtf]

If you want to fly airplanes for a living you are going to need to understand it will most likely never be like the "good old times". That said, there are still quite a few jobs that pay in excess of 100K per year even if you are stuck as an FO forever at a major or as a super senior captain at some of the regionals. While that isn't what any of us thought we would be getting when we got in, it is still better than most other careers. It is definitely possible to do better financially outside of aviation, but most of us would rather shoot ourselves in the head than live life in an office. Sure a lot of pilots get sick of being gone all the time- that is one thing that has never changed- and quite a few get bitter while stuck in crappy jobs, but while I highly doubt they will ever be hiring pilots without an instrument rating directly into the good jobs ever again, there will be quite a bit of movement coming soon courtesy of retirements and expansion at foreign carriers. I'm sure good jobs will still require good experience, but they are starting to be available now and there will be more and more coming up.

It is also quite possible that the originator of this post has no plans of moving out of aviation and just hopes that some of the competition for the better jobs moves out of the way. If I get furloughed from my current job, I agree- everyone trying to get a good flying job, just give up flying when I give the OK. I promise to let you all know when to move out of flying (the day my resume and applications go in the mail).

 

[Dan Roman]

This industry is cyclical, it has been stagnant for quite awhile and as a result, the average age in both the left seat and the right seat has gone up considerably. Soon pilots will be retiring in droves and this will be coupled with an improving economy. Also the percentage of pilots flying all the way to the retirement age (65 now) will be substantially less than when it was 60.

 

[BrickTop]

GENERAL LEE sited the very element that ALL OF YOU are discounting. "ALL" Retirements will not be "ALL" REPLACEMENTS at the Majors. Capacity will continue to shrink as Legacy carriers lobby, negotiate, collaborate and even bankrupt their way into scope relief and contract/code share agreements with Regionals. You can be sure to see 100+ seat airframes NOT piloted by Legacy carriers. If any of you believe there will rebirth 30,000 pilot positions at DAL,UAL,CAL/AA that prompts a hiring boom you have truly become a victim of an unfortunate fallacy. This industry is the biggest manipulation and exploration of labor in history, and to those who continue to feast on it's feeding are only continuing to grow fatter in gluttony and ignorance. You're smarter than that. Or are you?

 

[bri5150]

GENERAL LEE sited the very element that ALL OF YOU are discounting. "ALL" Retirements will not be "ALL" REPLACEMENTS at the Majors. Capacity will continue to shrink as Legacy carriers lobby, negotiate, collaborate and even bankrupt their way into scope relief and contract/code share agreements with Regionals. You can be sure to see 100+ seat airframes NOT piloted by Legacy carriers. If any of you believe there will rebirth 30,000 pilot positions at DAL,UAL,CAL/AA that prompts a hiring boom you have truly become a victim of an unfortunate fallacy. This industry is the biggest manipulation and exploration of labor in history, and to those who continue to feast on it's feeding are only continuing to grow fatter in gluttony and ignorance. You're smarter than that. Or are you?

As I said before, there is a level of hiring between a hiring boom and no hiring. Seriously...

 

[Tanker Clown]

General, the 7600 retirements will gel nicely with the number of furloughs.

 

[HA25]

stop drinking the koolaid.... the pilot shortage is a invention of ATA, and other entities that want to profit at your loss.. they flood the job market and this gives them cheaper labor. Simple supply and demand... RJ FO's today are competing with former Aloha, Air Midwest, ATA, Gemini, not to mention the 3000+ furloughed pilots of other major airlines that are going to be applying to all of the best jobs as they open up..

There will never be a shortage of pilots, only a shortage of ones dumb enough to take on a 100,000 debt load to go work for a regional with no end in sight..

What's the upgrade time now a days at a regional? And how many regional captains aren't dead enders? (i.e. young and college educated)

 

[xrated]

stop drinking the koolaid.... Come on SS, koolaid makes me happy...and I don't have to be concerned about failing a random after drinking it!!

What's the upgrade time now a days at a regional? And how many regional captains aren't dead enders? I'm guessing the guy who started this thread is a dead ender!! (i.e. young and college educated)

I have to say, I'm pretty satified with my decision to do what I'm doing...and that is after being furloughed for a year and a half and that includes being employed by probably the worst "major" in the world. I don't make much money, but I live in base, I'm on reserve, and I work on average (this is not an exaggeration) 7.3 days a month. It is what it is. I didn't put myself in debt by 100K, but I did put myself in debt by 50K...but even at the crap wage I make, if you're smart, it takes less than a decade to pay it back. My lifestyle is better than just about everyone I know. I dont have a big house, I don't have many toys, I don't drive a cool car (actually, I have a kick ass car) but I'd put my QOL up against any profession out there. You just have to be smart with your decisions. A little luck does help though.