Sokol talks about Netjets on CNBC

[RP170]

The net growth nja has seen is over. They will still continue to maintain the marketshare leadership position for some time, but quite simply, the product and service they offer which is 10-30% higher than that offered by competitors ( many with newer and better performing products) will be commoditized.
New airframes are purchased by a frax company in anticipation of turning around and selling them for a premium to new owners. 2 things have happened which will significantly curtail new frax purchases; 1) the economic downturn and subsequent oversupply of aircraft in the market have destroyed aircraft valuations and thus dramatically increased expected costs per hour, and 2) even IF a new frax owner is somehow convinced that he won't suffer what just happened to all his friends recently, he will not stand for purchasing a brand new plane and flying on a fleet which is quickly becoming long in the tooth.
DS is in a tough situation. He can't order new airframes without complete confidence that significant numbers of new owners will step up and buy them instead of buying the 2+ year old birds, slightly used, but at a significant discount.
Add to this problem the massive efforts by every competitor to undercut nja in every way, shape, and form via newer and/or better performing aircraft at a lower cost (to include labor rates), and you have a recipe for negative growth. Of course, this is all just my opinion. I could be wrong.

Well put. I agree with all of what you said. The only recalls at NJA will be as a result of attrition which will be next to nothing considering the buyouts that were just offered by the company. If guys didn't take the early out, there is no way they will leave within the next 3-5 years.

 

[gunfyter]

I agree that jonjuan is the Angel of Death....

 

[jonjuan]

Nope, just the realist of Reno. . Besides, captain dad will come along and save the day and make it all OK.

 

[727C47]

It was a great gig, God's grace it will be a great gig again.

 

[NachoMamma]

Besides, captain dad will come along and save the day and make it all OK.

Is that clown even on these boards anymore? Haven't seem him in a while. Clearly he struck a nerve with First Officer Lee.

 

[gunfyter]

Is that clown even on these boards anymore? Haven't seem him in a while. Clearly he struck a nerve with First Officer Lee.

He is in the non-aviation section telling us all how great Obama is....

 

[Jack Mehoff]

Well put. I agree with all of what you said. The only recalls at NJA will be as a result of attrition which will be next to nothing considering the buyouts that were just offered by the company. If guys didn't take the early out, there is no way they will leave within the next 3-5 years.

I'm not so sure about the next to nothing attrition. We had something in the area of 350 pilots over 60 and I think a good majority over 65. As morbid as it sounds it seems that about 1 a month was dying at home suddenly from heart attacks. I think that the health issues of some of these older pilots will crop up sooner then they think. I had many of the old guys tell me they didn't care about the money, they just wanted to go fly a jet a few days a month. I guess if you have nothing to do in your free time then kick'n it in a hotel room or at the wheel is your goal.

 

[OPECJet]

I heard a lot of the "I enjoy the flying" thing too. My reply was always I enjoy putting food on the table. The cockpit usually got silent after that one. I couldn't say how many of those guys were putting on a happy face and "enjoying the flying" while making up for lost retirement. Surely there were some that fit in that group. That's a crappy predicament to be in. Something tells me a lot of us will find ourselves in the same one.

On the flip side I spoke with at least two guys who didn't take an early out or LOA, but told me they would resign the day any furloughs were announced. I think they did.

 

[satpak77]

On a side note, aren't the planes getting a little old and long in the tooth with all the utilization put on them?

 

[jtf]

As they age, they do break more. Good thing the Cessna Service Centers are not very busy right now. If they don't order more replacement airframes than they claim to have done, there will be some problems if the economy ever gets buzzing again and Cessna is too busy to fix airplanes overnight or as really quickly as they have been doing for the last year plus.