Security at Astar

[Flex81]

Astar used to be owned by DHL and now they are not (I think). Is there any loyalty between the two companies now. Can Astar offer job security, i.e. could DHL hire other cargo carriers to fly their routes instead of Astar. It seems DHL is using ABX and Astar as leverage against eachother.

 

[2LT]

Acmi...

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=80456


No loyalty...little security.

 

[Sporto]

Much better security than ABX. Astar is slowly gaining more and more trips from ABX and will ultimately be the preferred carrier for dhl.

 

[cheyflyer]

FWIW.... Rumor back when the the DHL/Airborne/ABX/Wilmington/Astar thing all went down, was that ABX would be reduced and Astar would increase to a level that would make them about equal. I think the number was around 60 or so ships each. But who knows.....Im not sure DHL really knows what is going to work best.

 

[Flex81]

Thanks for the info guys

 

[erichartmann]

Much better security than ABX. Astar is slowly gaining more and more trips from ABX and will ultimately be the preferred carrier for dhl.

Astar has the same number of aircraft now as it had when the ILN intergration occured. ABX has purchased 12 767-200's from Delta. The total 767 fleet will number 41 when the last Delta aircraft is modified and enters service. It is rumored that another purchase of 12 - 14 767's is in the works.

ABX has parked some of its DC-9's (around 16-18 out of 70) and DC-8's as DHL tries to rationalize its system and decrease costs. The ABX DC-8's are -60 aircraft with P&W JT 3 engines. They burn a lot of fuel. The present plan seems to be to put all the remaining DC-8's on standby/reserve and fly all the 767's, using the 8's only when a 767 requires maintenance. It is worth noting that ABX has planned to retire all of the 8's and replace them with 767's since they began to aquire the 767's in 1998.

I expect the Astar A-300's to be parked next. It will be interesting to see if Astar gets any replacement aircraft when this happens.

 

[WickedPissa]

The buses will be replaced with six MD-11s or Tigermoths.

 

[erichartmann]

The buses will be replaced with six MD-11s or Tigermoths.

Concordes!

 

[neil armstrong]

I was told that some A300 might be coming to Europe as we seems to have a capacity problem ,the 757 doesnt have enough bulk on some of the routes!
As for loyalty and DHL, they dont really go together!
Best of luck

Neil

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Astar used to be owned by DHL and now they are not (I think). Is there any loyalty between the two companies now. Can Astar offer job security, i.e. could DHL hire other cargo carriers to fly their routes instead of Astar. It seems DHL is using ABX and Astar as leverage against eachother.

If you're looking for "security" in the aviation business, you should be applying for an entry-level position at Wackenhut. There's always the possibility that it will lead to an offer from the TSA, and they're the only "secure" jobs in aviation anymore.

Short-term, I think ASTAR will be around for a while. As I understand it, DHL offered the investors who formed ASTAR an 11-year contract to fly their stuff domestically.

Long-term, I have my doubts. DHL is basically a jillion small businesses and "independant contractors" who operate under the DHL umbrella. That has some advantages in certain world markets, but it also has it's disadvantages, loyalty and employee longevity being only one. Basically, what DHL did to it's airline was like a guy who divorces his wife, then hires her back to be his whore a couple nights a week. There is no loyalty by or for either group, only fear that if they persist in asking for fair wages and a decent QOL, the company will find other, cheaper "whores."

ABX is in the same boat. One of many whores all servicing the same "John."

But then, I seriously question the long-term "security" of working at ANY major carrier, including UPS or FedEx. I know that right now, they're the hottest tickets out there. But I've been at this game long enough to see the "Golden Jobs" come and go. Twenty-five years ago, I desperately wanted to work for Flying Tigers. At the time, they were "hotter than hot." First-year F/O's, wide-body pay, lots of international flying, full-bop ALPA contract, and best of all, great guys to work with.

Six years later, the opportunity to work for them presented itself, and I turned it down. The company was resting on it's "tailskid," employee moral was in the toilet, and CEO Steve Wolfe (a Lorenzo disciple) was threatening to break up the company. A LOT of guys passed on Tigers. They were all part of an exodus of pilots in the 80's and early 90's who quit the cargo business to fly for "REAL" airlines like Eastern, Braniff, US Airways, and American. I know guys who, as recently as 5 or 6 years ago, were leaving for Delta and United. The last I heard, they were still on the street.

My point is, that as far as careers go, the airlines (and this includes cargo) are no longer a static business. The "targets" are moving all the time. It's not enough to put your job sights on where the money and QOL are right now, you have to put them on where you think they're likely to be in 10 or 20 years. For that, you'll need lots of research...and a crystal ball

Think of 2 battleships, 20+ miles apart, engaged in a gun battle. Both are maneuvering furiously. The ballistics of their weapons are fairly well known to the respective gunnery officers, as is the projectiles time of travel to the aim point. But neither of them knows the winds aloft, the effect their own maneuvering will have on their aim point, or most importantly, exactly where the other guy is going to be in the 2-3 minutes it will take for their shell to reach the vicinity of their target.

The only certainty either gunnery officer can count on is the certainty that where his target is now, is not where it will be by the time his shell gets there. His only defense is to do likewise...stay vigilant and on the move, ready for anything...and pray.

Your career decisions should receive similar consideration.

 

[goastar]

How bad do you think foreign investment will hurt the industry?
Check your PM.

 

[erichartmann]

Dan,

A very well written analysis. It can be summed up by saying "it's all a crap shoot".

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

How bad do you think foreign investment will hurt the industry?

I'm not versed enough in International Finance to make an educated guess about that. If I fell into a coma for the next 10 years then awoke, it wouldn't surprise me to see a number of ACMI carriers on everybody's ramps. It's not just where we as an industry are headed...it represents where we, as a nation, are headed.

Over the last 20 years or so, the overnight express business has seen annual growth rates of 10-15%. "The rising tide floats all ships" as they say. It's hard to make a mistake when everything and everybody around you is going up that fast. About the only mistake you can make is to fail to secure or protect market share...a failing that DHL is trying to rectify through their purchase of ABX. How badly their previous oversight will affect them in the long run remains to be seen.

Eventually, this business, like the pax business and every other business, will stabilize at some level. Growth will slow, yields will diminish, and stockholders will get restless. CFO's will want to know why their companies are paying $250,000/yr for pilots that everybody else is getting for $100,000.

That's when it's going to get ugly...

I think the pilots of ASTAR can expect at least one more "good" contract, UPS and FedEx perhaps two. But after that, we're ALL going to be a bunch of tired old whores, standing on the corner "talkin' 'bout the way it used to be," and flagging down any old John who happens to be drivin' by...

 

[Clipperskip]

The Future

I'm not versed enough in International Finance to make an educated guess about that. If I fell into a coma for the next 10 years then awoke, it wouldn't surprise me to see a number of ACMI carriers on everybody's ramps. It's not just where we as an industry are headed...it represents where we, as a nation, are headed.

Over the last 20 years or so, the overnight express business has seen annual growth rates of 10-15%. "The rising tide floats all ships" as they say. It's hard to make a mistake when everything and everybody around you is going up that fast. About the only mistake you can make is to fail to secure or protect market share...a failing that DHL is trying to rectify through their purchase of ABX. How badly their previous oversight will affect them in the long run remains to be seen.

Eventually, this business, like the pax business and every other business, will stabilize at some level. Growth will slow, yields will diminish, and stockholders will get restless. CFO's will want to know why their companies are paying $250,000/yr for pilots that everybody else is getting for $100,000.

That's when it's going to get ugly...

I think the pilots of ASTAR can expect at least one more "good" contract, UPS and FedEx perhaps two. But after that, we're ALL going to be a bunch of tired old whores, standing on the corner "talkin' 'bout the way it used to be," and flagging down any old John who happens to be drivin' by...

Dear Dan,

Your last two posts illustrate the past, present and perhaps the future of the Airline industry better than any post that I have read on this forum in the past two years. Unfortunately I also agree with you with regards to the future of Airlines and ACMI carriers. The writing is on the wall. In the future I see the possiblility that one ACMI carrier's pilots could be flying for ABX or Astar for three years followed by a few years of flying for Northwest or FedEx. In between could be a few years of Ad Hoc charter. Those of you who think I'm crazy have no further than to look at the present regional airlines and their changes of affiliation over the past few years as to the proof that this is already going on in our industry. The economics of the market will drive the industry in this direction. Do we have to worry about foreign pilots coming in to fly for less, perhaps. Just look at the major maintenance that has been "farmed out" to El Salvador, and South America. A lot of the mechanics, reservationists, and Flight Attendants have already lost their jobs to this phenomenon. Will the pilots be next? One thing is for sure if we do lose our jobs to foreign groups the passengers will not care as long as they can get their 99$ fares. Just remember, we all want Walmart prices with union wages. Unfortunately the two are not compatible!

 

[big_al]

walmart prices with union wages? from what Ive seen, almost everyone wants walmart prices but only THEIR wages should be union, everyone else is just a lazy future welfare slob who should be happy making minimum wage and happy servicing them.