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Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 21, 2001
- Posts
- 6,137
Mike Boyd blowing his horn about how right he was...
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Speaking of Trans-States, the 25 (or more) 50-seat jets they're moving into United colors are said to be replacing CRJs now operated by Atlantic Coast, an SJP (small jet provider) that has not been successful yet in re-negotiating an Express agreement with United. That means there's a possibility that over the next year ACA could have 25 jets sitting idle on a ramp somewhere. There's a message here - the US fleet of <51 seat jets may be reaching market saturation sooner than expected.
The cold fact is that the number of RJs that the US transportation system can economically use is finite, as is the case with any aircraft category. The pull-down of AA at STL will affect that number. Looking at the dance cards of the mega-carrier systems, it's beginning to appear that with the existing fleet and the existing firm orders (forget options), the ultimate demand for RJ's may have been already reached. It's even possible that in the next 18 months we could see some RJ's sunning themselves in the desert.
This tends to track with the fleet forecasts accomplished by The Boyd Group over the past three years. The US fleet mix is changing a lot faster than the rearview mirror analysts are expecting. They've just noticed the emergence of the E-Jet (70-110 seat) category, but only after a couple of large orders splashed across the headlines. They're just noticing the dramatic fall-off in RJ orders. We'd note, however, that the aviation leaders who have attended our annual Aviation Forecast Conferences, were aware of these trends well before they ever appeared on the horizon.
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Speaking of Trans-States, the 25 (or more) 50-seat jets they're moving into United colors are said to be replacing CRJs now operated by Atlantic Coast, an SJP (small jet provider) that has not been successful yet in re-negotiating an Express agreement with United. That means there's a possibility that over the next year ACA could have 25 jets sitting idle on a ramp somewhere. There's a message here - the US fleet of <51 seat jets may be reaching market saturation sooner than expected.
The cold fact is that the number of RJs that the US transportation system can economically use is finite, as is the case with any aircraft category. The pull-down of AA at STL will affect that number. Looking at the dance cards of the mega-carrier systems, it's beginning to appear that with the existing fleet and the existing firm orders (forget options), the ultimate demand for RJ's may have been already reached. It's even possible that in the next 18 months we could see some RJ's sunning themselves in the desert.
This tends to track with the fleet forecasts accomplished by The Boyd Group over the past three years. The US fleet mix is changing a lot faster than the rearview mirror analysts are expecting. They've just noticed the emergence of the E-Jet (70-110 seat) category, but only after a couple of large orders splashed across the headlines. They're just noticing the dramatic fall-off in RJ orders. We'd note, however, that the aviation leaders who have attended our annual Aviation Forecast Conferences, were aware of these trends well before they ever appeared on the horizon.
