Pilot Shortage?

[Oreo]

Does anybody have stats on this pilot shortage?

 

[Phaedrus]

No and no.
What do you think, yourself?
"No and no."
Me too.

 

[Mooseflyer]

You're furloughed from a regional but have a lot of turmoil about going back to the legacies. What do you mean by that - are/were you at a regional or legacy?

My thoughts on your questions:

1. If the pay at the "top" (whatever that is -majors, LLCs?) continues at it's current level, then yes, I think there will be a pilot shortage. Maybe shortage is a strong word - "not a rediculous overabundance of pilots" may be a better term.

2. Yes, it will drive pay up in the future, BUT the big question is, how long will it take? Will you be 50 years old by the time it comes around? The way I figure, if a guy is a regional captain he may stick with the career path since he already has a fair amount of time invested in it. I would imagine many regional FO's are looking at either a second career with flying on the side to build some hours and keep current while they wait to see what happens, or bailing out entirely. And for a guy just getting his first ratings - he's gone. So how long will it take for this "pilot shortage" to materialize and drive pay up? It will show up at the bottom first in the form of flight training school classes shrinking. I hear that's already happening. The regionals will feel it next, then the majors. I don't know how long that will be - 8 years? 10? Many unknown variables. And, don't forget about age 65 - that may be the nail in the coffin even for those still furloughed from the "top", much less those who once wanted to get there.

Just my thoughts, worth what you paid......

 

[Phaedrus]

Nice edit of the original post Oreo....