CitationLover
Aw, Nuts!
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2003
- Posts
- 3,316
The next act in this play will be the exit of TPG. I'm curious to see how they get their 200+M +profit out of this deal. My bet is that NWA lets them suck the cash out of MEH until it's gone and then pays them the rest of what they are owed in a year or two. I think that anything that doesn't directly generate revenue will be jettisoned for cash and additional cost savings/productivity will be squeezed out to try to limit the losses. MEH is going to get bled dry then NWA will take what they want and liquidate the rest. NWA will use their equipment on the few routes that need bigger planes and when the Skywest deal expires in 4 years a NWA wholly-owned will move in with 70 seaters and hold down the rest. MKE will basicaly be a NWA RJ hub in a few years. Look at what AMR did with STL after they bought TWA........that's the future of MKE.
Goto business school, please!!!
TWA/AA is NOT a valid comparison at all. TWA had a lot of airplanes and AA still maintains a large domicile in STL and even though they shrunk the original flying is actually going back and adding flying now. They stupidly tried to play down their TWA 757 lease costs and got burned badly when the leasing company said, ok Delta will pay our rates we're giving them to Delta. We are talking about 400 pilots and FA's at MEH which are about equal to NWA reserve requirements (and they are hiring like mad).
It may take awhile but I'll be surprised if it doesn't go down pretty much like this in the end. NWA was trying to put MEH out of business and take the MKE market in the past. MEH proved to be a tough little nut to crack and NWA ran into bigger problems with Chapter 11 before they could win the battle. This time they will win the war without having to even fire a shot.
they've already fired a shot and bought 47% of the company. you don't buy an asset, strip it, then spend MORE money to train your pilots, when you could simply integrate the small amount of MEH pilots.
As long as I'm being Nostradamus here I also predict that TH retires in the next 6 months and leaves as a "hero" because he fought off AAI and got the shareholders the best deal. He won't stay around to preside over the dismantling of his baby.
if NWA doesn't buy us outright in 6 mos., TH will "retire" within a year (that's what the public announcement will say), but he'll be fired by TPG and hopefully a REAL management team with vision (a la Bethune) is brought in.
Last edited: