Loans for Flight Training?

[Secret Squirrel]

Followed by the great furlough of 2013.

 

[pilotyip]

you bet

There's going to be a hiring boom in 2012?

just watch, kinda like the check is in the mail

 

[ualdriver]

just watch, kinda like the check is in the mail

Sorry, kinda can't accept that. That's like saying, "the stock market is going to go up tomorrow." Maybe it will, maybe it won't- but if it does it's not as if it went up because you had some sort of special knowledge that allowed you to predict that it was going to happen. More than likely, it was a coin flip and you guessed the correct side.

I hope you're not thinking that there's going to be a big hiring boom in 2012 just because that's when retirements will likely start again. I'd argue that pre-2007 we had lots of retirements and that in itself did not constitute a "hiring boom," so 2012 will be no different when the retirement start again. Yeah, it will help, just like retirements help any other industry, but I don't think that constitutes a "boom."

Cassia, looks like Secret gave you some good advice. Don't load yourself up with debt from flight training that you will unlikely be able to service in the first several years of your career!

 

[pilotyip]

your option

Sorry, kinda can't accept that. That's like saying, "the stock market is going to go up tomorrow." Maybe it will, maybe it won't- but if it does it's not as if it went up because you had some sort of special knowledge that allowed you to predict that it was going to happen. More than likely, it was a coin flip and you guessed the correct side.

The economy is recovering, retirements will start again, every retirement creates five pilot jobs, the growth from the econ recovery coupled with the retirement turnover will generate a lot of pilot jobs. Educated guess, only time will tell if it is a good guess. Same as the stock market. It is a free country right now, you are free not to acept it.

 

[ualdriver]

It is a free country right now, you are free not to accept it.

Understood, but just don't want to give the original poster false hope, either. The industry is absolutely SATURATED with qualified pilots, and will probably be for a long time- I would guess well beyond 2012.

I agree that retirements from the top will trickle down nicely, but at least at my airline (if it makes it to 2012 which will make pilot hiring all the worse!) the age 60+ guys aren't going anywhere, anytime soon.

 

[pilotyip]

times change

Understood, but just don't want to give the original poster false hope, either. The industry is absolutely SATURATED with qualified pilots, and will probably be for a long time- I would guess well beyond 2012.

I agree that retirements from the top will trickle down nicely, but at least at my airline (if it makes it to 2012 which will make pilot hiring all the worse!) the age 60+ guys aren't going anywhere, anytime soon.

It was saturated with qualified pilots in 1973, 1983, 1993, 2003, and by 1977, 1987 1977, 2007 it was difficult to find qualified pilots. Go back and read the threads from around 2002. Everyone giving advvice to get out of the industry, there would never be any jobs again. Those who started training in 2002 and 2003, were the ones who got the jobs in 2006 and 2007. Kinda like the stock market, when everyone says it is time to get out; it is often the time to get in.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

Find someone to sue.

 

[ualdriver]

It was saturated with qualified pilots in 1973, 1983, 1993, 2003, and by 1977, 1987 1977, 2007 it was difficult to find qualified pilots. Go back and read the threads from around 2002. Everyone giving advvice to get out of the industry, there would never be any jobs again. Those who started training in 2002 and 2003, were the ones who got the jobs in 2006 and 2007. Kinda like the stock market, when everyone says it is time to get out; it is often the time to get in.

Going to have to disagree with you Yip. The industry has been saturated with pilots not only the years you mentioned, but for almost the ENTIRE time period you mention (minus the early 70's). The difference between now and then is that for the past 2 years and the next 3 years, practically no one will retire, which makes the current oversupply even worse than before. So like the years you mention, there was a persistent oversupply but now we have 5 years of NO ONE leaving off the top.

In 2007, there wasn't a shortage of pilots. There were just few pilots willing to work for less than a living wage. There's a difference. Had the regionals simply raised their wages, they would have had all the pilots they wanted. I know that because I have 2 acquaintances with the appropriate ratings who would love nothing more than to get back into aviation, but simply can't afford to live on 20K/year, so they sit at their current job and wait. I would bet there are 1000's of guys like that out there, and more being created every day as flight schools continue to spit out pilots with no jobs to go to.

I just think you're not doing a young kid any favors by pinning his hope on a "pilot shortage" that probably won't materialize. The sad state of this industry that has existed now and for almost the last 10 years is that we have to hope that some sort of "pilot shortage" materializes in order to get any semblance of a decent career and a living wage. I doubt senior accountants, for example, are on accountantinfo.com telling young guys that a big "accounting shortage" is going to materialize so it's a great time to enter the profession. A senior accountant doesn't have to say that because the laws of supply and demand are in balance for most other professionals very much UNLIKE pilots.

I'm done! To the OP, good luck. Do not get yourself into serious debt to get into this profession or you will likely be disappointed, no matter how much you love flying.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

It's impossible to predict things. Too many variables (most unexpected or "Black Swans") drive future situations.

 

[pilotyip]

your opinion again

Going to have to disagree with you Yip. The industry has been saturated with pilots not only the years you mentioned, but for almost the ENTIRE time period you mention (minus the early 70's). The difference between now and then is that for the past 2 years and the next 3 years, practically no one will retire, which makes the current oversupply even worse than before. So like the years you mention, there was a persistent oversupply but now we have 5 years of NO ONE leaving off the top.

Having been in the hiring business, it was a lot harder to get pilots in 2007 than it is in 2009. I call that a shortage. You are welcome along with avbug to call it anything you want. Right now it is still a free country.