Kit Darbys AirInc goes TU!

[Lear70]

Who then, should fly our jets?

No one...

For a while at least. That's the whole POINT. Until there's a TRUE shortage of pilots, and management can't just whipsaw the regionals around OR use "force majeure" clauses to screw the mainline pilots, nothing will change.

One group "grows a set", there's 4,000+ pilots waiting without a job to take their place. Until that basic surplus of cheap talent goes away (and we all know most pilots are too self-serving to resist taking a sub-par compensation flying job), OR the airlines get released from the restrictions of the RLA (unlikely), we're pretty much screwed.

The days of pilots having too much self-respect to whore themselves out are pretty much over. The "Me" generation in the right seats at most regionals right now isn't helping, either.

Personally, I'd LOVE to see a TRUE pilot shortage...

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

No one...

For a while at least. That's the whole POINT. Until there's a TRUE shortage of pilots, and management can't just whipsaw the regionals around OR use "force majeure" clauses to screw the mainline pilots, nothing will change.

One group "grows a set", there's 4,000+ pilots waiting without a job to take their place. Until that basic surplus of cheap talent goes away (and we all know most pilots are too self-serving to resist taking a sub-par compensation flying job), OR the airlines get released from the restrictions of the RLA (unlikely), we're pretty much screwed.

The days of pilots having too much self-respect to whore themselves out are pretty much over. The "Me" generation in the right seats at most regionals right now isn't helping, either.

Personally, I'd LOVE to see a TRUE pilot shortage...

Never going to happen.....

The plan to use foreign labor will be enacted long before there is a "shortage"

 

[UndauntedFlyer]

Any flying job is better than sitting in a cubical.

There will always be flying jobs because somebody has to fly all these airplanes that are being built. People just have to travel and they are not going to drive from ORD to LAX. Air transportation is hear to stay, its not going away.

Trust me, the jobs will be there and in 5-years there will be a shortage of those who are qualified and available to take them.

The pilot shortage is coming. Be ready, don't give up.

To believe otherwise is to believe the world will end and the stock market will drop to zero.

 

[pilotyip]

love your style

Any flying job is better than sitting in a cubical.

There will always be flying jobs because somebody has to fly all these airplanes that are being built. People just have to travel and they are not going to drive from ORD to LAX. Air transportation is hear to stay, its not going away.

Trust me, the jobs will be there and in 5-years there will be a shortage of those who are qualified and available to take them.

The pilot shortage is coming. Be ready, don't give up.

To believe otherwise is to believe the world will end and the stock market will drop to zero.

I bet you really like flying airplanes and can't understand all the whinning about a great job of being paid to do something you really look forward do every day you go to work. Looking back on 45 years I have had a ball, and am coming out the other end in pretty good shape. I am truely lucky to have never hated my job.

 

[satpak77]

(touching on a few posts above)

I like my job. Heck, I darn near (but not 101%) love it. I love airplanes. No, college is not needed to fly airplanes.

With that said, would I recommend a young man or woman, say, entering college, in today's economic environment, (etc etc), to pursue a career as a professional pilot? The answer is either yes or no. And for me, it is no, I would not.

I would encourage something else.

 

[Lear70]

Any flying job is better than sitting in a cubical.

There will always be flying jobs because somebody has to fly all these airplanes that are being built. People just have to travel and they are not going to drive from ORD to LAX. Air transportation is hear to stay, its not going away.

Trust me, the jobs will be there and in 5-years there will be a shortage of those who are qualified and available to take them.

The pilot shortage is coming. Be ready, don't give up.

To believe otherwise is to believe the world will end and the stock market will drop to zero.

OK sir, I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to cut you off... you've obviously had WAAAYY too much to drink tonight.

I'm glad you're that excited about it. I love my job, too. If I didn't, I'd be back in law school in a heartbeat. I just hate what the INDUSTRY has become, know that it won't likely change, and if you have friends, and they're REALLY you're friends, you'll show them ALL the bad stuff that goes with the good.

I personally will celebrate every time I hear another puppy mill has closed their doors. Force them to go through the university programs and get a degree at the same time, make it as expensive as hell, show them how little they'll make the first 1/4 of their career and how they have no hope of repaying their student loans until they're in their 50's, praying they're somewhere long enough to really build that 401(k) and MAYBE have a retirement...

Think we'd get as many pilots out here?

 

[PCL_128]

Kit believed and promoted the MPL program....so does Jim Rice (VP ALPA). I spoke to both of them and they admitted it to me. Every pilot should be afraid if that passes.

His name is Paul Rice, not Jim, and he doesn't support MPL, he just believes that ALPA and IFALPA should be involved in the development process to prevent it from becoming a dangerous program that trains dangerous new pilots.

 

[pipe]

Sounds like the same "damage mitigation" philosophy that led to Age 65 becoming an unequivocal disaster for everyone under 50. The APA hard-line approach seems to have more historical success.

PIPE

 

[njcapt]

The flight school business is in the toilet. University flight programs and major flight schools are closing. The military is trying to keep all their pilots from leaving and with the low wages currently being paid in industry, who would leave a military flying job.

I LOL'd at this, as it is a snapshot of numerous points in my aviation history. From personal experience, it could be 1984, when I was a ink-wet-on-my-PPL new guy at one of the imploding University aviation programs. During all 1986 I couldn't buy an instructing job in either Oklahoma or the Chicago area, despite having 300 hours dual-given and three successful PPL applicants. Regionals were loaded with furloughed Continental and Frontier pilots eager to keep current and employed.

It could be 1994, when there were >10,000 hugely qualified pilots from Eastern, Pan Am, Midway, Braniff, American, USAir, etc. fighting for the few airline positions available including a few willing to pay for jobs at Kiwi and ValuJet.

It could be 2004, when nearly every major airline used the bankruptcy process to shred contracts and the subsequent leverage to furlough thousands.

It also applies now, in 2009, when thousands of highly qualified furloughees and terminated Corporate pilots are scrambling for a handful of positions at jetBlue and Southwest or forced to take jobs in Asia and the Mid-East.

One common thread running through this is Kit Darby and FAPA/Air inc. During each of these industry cock-ups I attended at least one of his seminars, largely in order to get some face time with airline reps. I generally blew off the Saturday morning dog-and-pony show and showed up before the afternoon grip-and-grin session, but each time managed to catch Kit's proselytizing about the upcoming pilot shortage. Every time. Looking at the hundreds of fresh-faced airline noobs sucking up every work of Kit's, I wanted to get all Howard Beale in Network on them. The notion of an upcoming American pilot shortage turning the industry around is wishful thinking of the worst kind, totally unsupported by the events of the past 50 years and the current global economic environment.

I have to agree with Rez that any pilot shortage in the future, no matter how miniscule, will be quickly filled by relaxation of foreign worker restrictions. In today's global economy, global business leaders will provide whatever leverage is necessary to keep their travel supply chains intact, regardless of what political party happens to be in charge at the time. Currently there is a pilot vacuum in Asia and India (but don't blink, that could change almost overnight and has to a certain extent in Dubai) that is requiring the use of expat pilots. Don't think for a minute that it won't happen here.

 

[Papa Woody]

I think Chimpanzees will fly airplanes in the near future....

....apparently, they can do lots of stuff already.