The flying public likes direct flights. While they do complain about the RJ's size (and everything else) lets see how they vote with their wallets.
Southwest and JetBlue (and even lowly ATA) has a quality and CASM advantage here but with load factors down the cost may be the same or less on select routes into thin markets.
Yes I said SWA and ATA has a quality advantage. What is quality you ask?? It's not what some pilots think. Not traditional mainline amenities for upscale passengers. It's the smiling F/A who gives off a positive attitude and room on the flight to relax. ATA is increasing pitch on some 757's. And now a business class that company employees may not Bogart. After a stressful airport experience that is all they want. Not blue cornchips or fancy colored seat covers.
I think the RJ's and 170/190 class will constrain LCC growth in small markets. But maybe there is enough growth to go around. The biggest trend I see is little or no mainline growth at the legacy carriers due to RJ and LCC growth. Look at Delta, selling 777's and 738's. I think their aging MD-88's may be at risk. SWA, Airtran and JetBlue have big expansion plans and will only eat into narrow body load factors at mainlines. The exception may be AA and UAL who are becoming LCCs themselves. USAir is a big ??
Now all ATA has to do is figure out how to stay in business and here comes Virgin. I wish I knew more about USAir's progress. They will continue the small plane assault. I don't agree with Lowecurs dire assessments, but I think the small plane will be big (no pun intended)
The passengers will never say, "hey I like flying on the 170/190's". Look to the option that has the fewest complaints and the smallest dent in the pocketbook.
Delta, the clock is ticking.
