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indy air 2005 profit?

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c152

Well-known member
Joined
May 4, 2002
Posts
82
47% load factor that is painful!!! I hope it improves for Indy

FLYi seen returning to profit as soon as '05-Barron's
Sun Sep 19, 2004 02:01 PM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - FLYi (FLYI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , which was formerly known as Atlantic Coast Airlines Holdings Inc., is upgrading its fleets to bigger jets and may be poised to return to profitability if its competition weakens, Barrons said in its Sept. 20 sedition.



For now, FLYi, which operates Independence Air, reported that only 47 percent of its seats were full in July, which the worst load factor of 29 major and regional carriers in the United States, and it is not expected to return to profitability until mid-2005, Barron's said.

The new jets from Airbus and Canadair regional jets and weakened competition that had trouble profitably matching Independence Air's fares gives the carrier an opportunity to return to profitability, Barron's said.

For the first six months of 2004, the company had reported a loss of $23.5 million from retiring some aircraft and starting up Independence Air.

"It can't get much worse, and it could get a lot better in 2005, so a doubling or tripling of the stock price is a decent bet -- not unusual for a volatile airline stock -- but far from a sure thing," said Barron's, a weekly financial newspaper.

FLYi's Independence air serves a lot of underserved markets and two of its big competitors, US Airways (UAIRQ.OQ: Quote, Profile, Research) and UAL Corp. (UALAQ.OB: Quote, Profile, Research) , are in bankruptcy, Barron's said.

UAL's United Airlines might curtail operations at Dulles International Airport outside Washington, which could benefit Independence Air, Barron's said.

FLYi converted its business model to a low-fare carrier after it had previously operated regional airlines United Express and Delta Connection to bring passengers on short-haul flights to hubs for United Airlines and Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

Independence Air has given Airbus firm orders for 28 A319s, Barron's said. The first four should be going into service this year, 18 more next year and the last six in the first half of 2006.

FLYi's shares traded at $4.08 on Friday. In January 2002, the stock had traded as high as $30.23 when it was operating under its old name.

In December 2003, Mesa Air Group Inc. (MESA.O: Quote, Profile, Research) abandoned stock swap takeover that valued Atlantic Coast Airlines at $10.40 per share when the bid was first announced. FLYi was not immediately available for comment.
 
notice the load factors for july and august are similar but we doubled capacity in the same period of time. it will be just fine..
 
Every new business factors in losses for the first couple of years. If I worked there, I would not be too worried.
 
We knew we couldn't get high load with just the CRJs. There are only so many people that want to go from ROC to ORF. The Airbuses are key......

It is all coming to plan.....
 
I wish you guys the best and hope the business plan works but I'm a little concerned. I am probably off a little but I believe FlyI has approx. 100 CRJ's on the property and 25 or so 319's on order. That would mean 80% of your fleet is comprised of the CRJ. I certainly hope you plan on being profitable with the CRJ and don't try to support that aircraft with the bus. You'll eat up any profit the bus can generate.
 
I think it will be interesting to see what happens at Independence. If they are able to be profitable next year with nearly all 50 seat CRJ's then the regional jet is unprofitable crowd will be eating crow. ACA/Indy aren't exactly the cheapest operator in terms of labor cost either.
 
side stick-n said:
I. 100 CRJ's on the property and 25 or so 319's on order. That would mean 80% of your fleet is comprised of the CRJ. .
Who cares how much of the fleet is RJ - it's the seats inside that count. 100 747-400 frieghters would mean 50% of our fleet are 747's but 0 seats doesn't help much.

It actually 87 RJ's but your comparing apples to oranges. I'm sure most analysts are going to look at available seats. I'm not going to bother doing the math but 87 RJs with 50 seats compared to 28 319's with 120. Suddenly the numbers seem to add up nicely. Believe me, the company knows 28 319's are not enough. Expect them to act on options late 2005.
 
I'll do the math for you

28 Airbus x 120 seats each = 3360 seats

87 CRJ x 50 seats each = 4360

And to do a bit more math would lead me to believe that the CRJs represent a little over 56% of your fleet even after the Airbuses show up. So it seems to me that if you can't keep those RJ's profitable you are still going to have problems. To say nothing of the fact that you are going to spend a lot more money on gas for those 87 short flights vs. 28 long hauls. I hope it works out for you all but honestly if I believed it would I would still be working there. However if you can find a way to keep the CRJs profitable then I have little doubt that the Airbuses will only add to your bottom line. Good luck!
 
ILStoMinimums said:
I thought short-haul on the RJ was unprofitable ;).
Short-haul flights in any jet is less profitable than longer ones. RJs are more profitable at lower altitudes than bigger planes.
 
Franky4Fingers said:
Short-haul flights in any jet is less profitable than longer ones. RJs are more profitable at lower altitudes than bigger planes.
OK,
But looking at the seat cost flying an RJ on flights under an hour sounds expensive. Doesn't the plane have to be way up in the FL's to economize on fuel? A flight under 1 hour, I'm assuming, doesn't get up very high...correct?
 

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