How ALPA should work

[Publishers]

And just who are you to set a value that I will accept and work for. What is the acceptable rate for an "ALPA Captain"? Just who is it that decides whether an airline captain should be a $20,000 a year job, or, a $250,000 a year job? Congress cares about your pay level or do they care about all the people in the back of the aircraft who vote in their district?
Lastly, there is no unity on this thread let alone the industry.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Hi again Occam, all that is a great idea, but you have left out the dynamics of the marketplace. Anything that raises the price of an airline ticket will reduce the number of people flying.

Disagree. Every shred of speculation and prediction on the future of air travel in the US indicates that RPM's will increase by over 25% over the next 8-10 years.

I certainly don't think fewer people will be flying.

You not just competing with other airlines, you are competing with ground transportation for flights of less than 1000 miles.

I think the distance cut-off is 150-miles (expressed as 3-hours drive time). The exceptions are Hawaii (driving from Maui to Oahu is tough), and parts of Texas (now wired with actual electricity!).

The competition part is the key. If the President gets his way, foreign nationals/airlines will be able to own US airlines. The Chinese (the commie ones, not the islanders) are already prosperous owners of US transportation infastructure (shipyards, etc), and Sir Dick Branson is salivating at the prospect of cherrypicking lucrative domestic US flying. (Virgin to Fargo? Don't count on it Oly!)

Bush's "backdoor" scheme to get foreign ownership under the tent flap via NPRM, vice legislative action, is a direct threat to YOUR profession. His support for cabotage is a bonus...not!

You are also facing the use of discretionary income; income used for unnecessary things you like to do. If the price is too much, the rider will elect not to do it.

At least all the executives will be flying to India to visit their employees! That, and they'll need to visit their villas in Florida, California, and North Dakota. Their larva will require accessable transportation too, so all is not lost.

So after we restore the wages to the 2000 UAL contract levels, how many pilot will still have jobs?

Depends. In your crystal ball is Air Zimbabwe flying ATL-LAX and MEM-SEA...or is that stuff still being done by NorthDeltaNental Airlines?

Will we have the grit to fight those threats?

My guess is that 30% of those reading this post will be thinking, "Gee, I wonder if Air Zimbabwe is hiring?...and, What's their QOL?"

40% of us are reading this, thinking, "Yikes! I better get busy and do something to help stop it!" (Unfortunately, 50% of that group will hear the theme song to Family Guy as they are getting ready to drive down to their congressman's office, and will lose their concern right after Brian exclaims, "If you need me, I'll be in the next room chewing on my a$$ for 5-minutes!")

The other 30% are a mixture of self-fooling idgits who think they're immune to industry upheaval because their paychecks are clearing, ALPA-hating trolls who are still upset about _______ (Age 60, FFDO's, Political Endorsements. Choose one), and truly apathetic slugs whose idea of paradise is a 54" plasma TV, a keg of Bud, a tub of Cheetos, and a catheter.

 

[pilotyip]

occma all your projections of growth are based upon exisiting market conditons, if your ticket rises to level to support 2000 UAL contract pay without stuffing first class at $1200 one way DTW-MCO, there will be a new equation. I take my sisters for instance, they fly down to Fla to see mom for the weekend, fares in advance are like $175 round trip DTW-MCO. They would not make that trip to see mom on the weekend for $300. They would go once per year for a week or so. The fact of de-reg is that it drove down prices is reflected in today's travelers, they used to ride the bus or drive, but it is so darn cheap to fly; they now fly. If prices go up to support 2000 pilot pay they will drive or not make the trip. The airlines can not force a higher priced product on to the flying public they can make choices

 

[Occam's Razor]

Yippie,

You're targeting a number, and I'm focused on a trend. The economic controls on the service (air travel is a service, not a product), are the same as any other service industry:

A. How much does it cost to provide the service? [Control: How much your service "providers" need to be compensated, how much the service vehicles cost, and how much other "other stuff" costs]
B. How much can you generate in revenue for the service? [Control: How many others are offering it, and what are they charging]
C. How much your government protects or impedes your ability to generate your service at a low cost. [Controls: Taxes, regulatory restrictions, etc]

Pay rates from 2001 will be back again. The questions become:

1. When??
2. What will inflation have done to it by then?

Obviously pilots are being compensated now more than they were in the 30's, 40's 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's, and 90's. Have the two linked comparisons (purchasing power, and quality of life) reflected that increase decade-over-decade?

Probably depends on where you sit, and what your needs are.

I think it's an over-simplification to assume that your sisters will stop going down to see mom if thte price gets to be $300. If mom is sick, or they start earning more...they're there!

If their jobs go to India, or their industry gets smacked by the government, all bets are off.

The pricing power of US airlines is poo poo right now. Capacity, subsidized competition, and government voodoo needles being jammed into our spleens are hurting us.

I advocate getting the government to knock-it-off, and getting self-serving managers to die from starvation.

I think that will start the trend going the way we want it. If we don't reach 2000 levels before I hang 'em up...so be it.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Occam,

Many have great ideas for the current Perfect Storm. However these ideas would work against us during growth, if/when it returns. This is why no one was calling for a National Sen list or National payscales during growth.

Like what you said about perpetual motion and cold fusion: if I had a million dollars everything would be better... Now here is the trick: HOW am I going to get a million dollars? Offering non pragmatic solutions for others to figure out how to solve has no place at the table. It is distracting and counter productive.

Right now ALPA is what we got. ALPA was cool in the late 90's when growth was happening. All one had to do was pay thier 1.95% and forget about it. But now, during the Perfect Storm, ALPA seems to be FUBAR. ALPA isn't a silver bullet, but it does have in place stop gaps and barriers, to weather the Perfect Storm. Finally, until the ALPA haters replace what we got I am going to support ALPA. When the replacement happens I'll support the replacement.

The trick?

We have to get informed and involved.

Keep up the good post. And yes BACK the PAC!