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High Interest killing AMR

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lowecur

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 14, 2003
Posts
2,317
This article is very forward looking. It's interesting that with even the large cuts AMR has made, it's ability to make any serious money is greatly hindered by it's interest payments. On top of that it points out how many of the legacy's unions plan to let the airline coast till 2008, and then look for large pay increases. Without a cushion, the next downturn will probably be fatal for most.

American Airlines Facing Challenges as It Tries to Return to Profitability

By Trebor Banstetter, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas

Feb. 22--ABOARD AMERICAN AIRLINES FLIGHT 1086 -- Things are different these days on this McDonnell Douglas MD-80 aircraft as it cruises from North Texas to New York.

In the cockpit, Capt. Byron Smith keeps a closer eye on fuel conservation by carefully monitoring the airplane's altitude and airspeed.

In the cabin, flight attendant Stephen Jacob serves only drinks. He is pleasant with passengers but acknowledges that tempers can be shorter these days as the crew works longer for less pay.

Passenger Julius Ringquist has a prepacked "bistro bag" rather than a hot meal. He used an automated check-in machine rather than speaking with a gate agent.

In many ways, this 1,391-mile daily flight epitomizes the new American Airlines, which has changed dramatically in the year since the Fort Worth-based carrier narrowly avoided bankruptcy.

More than 500 cost-cutting measures have reduced expenses. There are fewer employees, and they are paid less and operate the airline more efficiently.

Yet, when Flight 1086 lands at John F. Kennedy Airport after a three-hour-and-17-minute trip, it's still a money-loser.

It's a problem that continues to vex American's top executives.

Despite great progress in slimming down, the airline continues to lose money, and no one can predict when it might return to significant long-term profitability.

"American has accomplished a lot, and they're really quite far ahead of most of the other major carriers," said airline analyst Ray Neidl of Blaylock & Partners in New York. "But they're not there yet. Clearly, more has to be done."

Although it doesn't usually break out data for individual flights, American agreed to provide the Star-Telegram with financial and operating details for Flight 1086. American executives say it is a typical flight in the airline's network.

The figures include the flight's current results as well as its performance a year ago, before the world's largest airline began slashing costs.

The differences are startling.

Flight 1086's margin -- the difference between the cost of flying the route and the money it makes -- has improved by about 80 percent. Passenger revenue has climbed nearly 13 percent, thanks in part to a 5 percent average increase in airfares.

On a purely operating basis, Flight 1086 is profitable. Its earnings leaped more than 130 percent, well into the black.

Excluding fuel, whose price has risen dramatically, costs dropped by 12 percent. That kind of cost-cutting is crucial in an industry where a single traveler can determine whether a flight makes or loses money.

Still, the flight loses money after taxes and nonoperating expenses are factored in. Those expenses include American's high interest payments, which are part of the fallout from its poor financial performance and the billions of dollars in debt built up since 2001.

Smith, the pilot, plans to pull his 10-year-old daughter and 8-year-old son out of private school next year as his family adjusts to a 32 percent drop in his base salary. "We can't drop ten grand on elementary school anymore," said Smith, 44, a 14-year American Airlines employee who lives in Colleyville. "There's a lot of belt-tightening going on."

"The problem is, while American has cut costs, they're still not as low as guys like Southwest and JetBlue," said Alan Sbarra, vice president of Unisys R2A Transportation Management Consultants. "At the same time, they've got to match those low fares."

Sbarra believes that the only salvation for major airlines such as American, Delta and United lies in making even deeper cuts and in harnessing the strengths the low-fare carriers lack, such as international flights, greater frequency of flights and large frequent-flier programs.

But he fears that American and other large carriers may coast through the economic recovery earning small profits, then feel pressure to enrich labor contracts when they expire in 2008.

"Then, they're going to get slammed in the next downturn," he said. "And the next one, whenever it happens, will be even worse."


For pilot Smith, all the cutbacks have meant keeping a sharp eye on the family budget and eliminating many luxuries.

"We don't go out to dinner, and I don't play golf much anymore," he said. "You cut out as many little things here and there as you can."

Smith and his wife were considering taking their children out of private school last year; the cutbacks sealed the deal, he said.

"That's probably one of the biggest changes for us," he said.

Smith said he joined American in 1989, largely because of the carrier's reputation for innovation. "At the time, American was very forward-looking, and it seemed to have strong leadership in Bob Crandall."

He chuckled wryly. "Who knew that when I hit my 40s, I'd be talking about cutbacks?"

Smith is often paired with younger co-pilots who worry about being laid off. "You try to be as supportive as you can," he said. "Everyone in this business knows what it feels like to be on the edge like that."
 
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lowecur said:

Despite great progress in slimming down, the airline continues to lose money, and no one can predict when it might return to significant long-term profitability.

"The problem is, while American has cut costs, they're still not as low as guys like Southwest and JetBlue," said Alan Sbarra, vice president of Unisys R2A Transportation Management Consultants. "At the same time, they've got to match those low fares."

Sbarra believes that the only salvation for major airlines such as American, Delta and United lies in making even deeper cuts and in harnessing the strengths the low-fare carriers lack, such as international flights, greater frequency of flights and large frequent-flier programs.



Lowecur,

I don't know what to say. This article is helpful in some ways and truly disturbing in others. It's good to acknowledge the awful affect that debt interest payments will cause for years at AA, UAL, DAL. I personally worry the debt being carried will indeed push some over the edge.

Is this guy an analyst or a rocket scientist. The legacy carriers are harnessing their strengths. Their strength is not to be the lowest cost but to offer international flights and feed larger jets with RJs. What they are now harnessing is RJs for more point to point flights. BIG change. My personal opinion is that this new tactic will hurt LCCs. But narrow body mainline jet service will continue to struggle. This guy is definitely behind the power curve.

Is labor REALLY the problem? Is labor really stupid enough to ask for wage increases if the company is still in trouble in 2008? However slow and late, MOST airline unions will recognize the truth and adjust. That's why AA didn't go bankrupt. Labor will take more cuts if necessary and not ask for pay increases before profits. Unions can be bad sometimes, but we need'em to prevent greedy management types from doing wrong. Keep in mind that labor gets pay raises well after an upswing in profit starts and gets pay cuts well after a downturn starts. In bad times, Execs quit and get huge golden parachutes to heal their bruised egos.

The problem is Revenue. Nowhere in this otherwise good article did they talk about how cheap fares are lately. If a single passenger can make a profit, a 1% increase in fares could do the same. Give me a break.

You want to see the airline look like the telecom industry (and others) with jobs lost and careers ruined, fine. The American worker is being sold down the river. All in the name of 'Capitolism'. American's are addicted to lower prices everyday on many goods and services. And the prices are going to keep getting lower because Daddy has become a Walmart greeter and can't spend as much anymore.

The good news is getting an airline job will be a lot easier in 5-10 years. No one is going to want a career that will pay less every year due to "cost cutting" and all the displaced folks from today will have been recalled or found other work. The hyper competitive hiring environment of today will definitely be over.

For those of you 15-18 yrs old, now is the time to focus on the airline hiring boom of 2014.
 
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Lowecur,

Tell me the next time you short AMR so I can sell my stock ahead of your story.
 
FlyBoeingJets said:
Lowecur,

Tell me the next time you short AMR so I can sell my stock ahead of your story.
Actually I own some AMR stock, and plan to hold it for a few more years. I like Arpey and I believe he is a very good communicator. The proof will be if he can continue to sell the unions his vision.
 
You're better at stock picking than I.

I missed out on buying AMR. I don't really own any, but I did think about it when it was $2-3. I chickened out 'cause I was working part time then.
 
There is no doubt that the higher rates hurt the Majors, and it will be interesting to see how they pull it off---but the management guys have way too much invested in stock options etc to not do whatever it takes---and they will find a way.

Flyboeingjets,

You are correct---it really is a revenue problem mixed in with some anti-competitive wages. I agree that there is a problem when there is a huge gap in pay differences---and that probably will be rectified eventually--hopefully with cooperation---but then it will be up to the Marketing people to get people in those planes and get revenue going up again. The article did say that the Majors should exploit their profitable sectors---like INTL flying. Interesting....

Bye Bye--General Lee;)
 
Speaking of wages. Did I hear right that AirTran is going to fly the 737-700 at the same hourly rate as the 717??

Did anyone tell these guys that the 737-700 is a BIGGER airplane?



That with the article above may make me sell AMR short.
 
FlyBoeingjets

FlyBoeingJets said:
Lowecur,

Is this guy an analyst or a rocket scientist. The legacy carriers are harnessing their strengths. Their strength is not to be the lowest cost but to offer international flights and feed larger jets with RJs. They are harnessing the RJs for more direct flights as they get more of them. This guy is definitely behind the power curve.

Is labor REALLY the problem? Is labor really stupid enough to ask for wage increases if the company is still in trouble in 2008? However slow and late, MOST airline unions will recognize the truth and adjust.

You want to see the airline look like the telecom industry (and others) with jobs lost and careers ruined, fine. The American worker is being sold down the river. All in the name of 'Capitolism'.
Yes, he is definitely on the side of mgt. As I mentioned before, the business is in a deflationary cycle, and the cycle won't end till the playing field is level. How long this takes is anyone's guess.

Do I take glee in the fact so many families are in such dire straits? Of course not. I've got friends that live on either side of me that were just layed off from IBM and Sieman's after 20 and 18 years. These guys are devastated. Their houses are for sale, and their lives are up in the air. This is a product of the "global economy" that big business has been shoving down our throats for the last 15 years. Offshore outsourcing is a double edged sword. It saves the big corporations money in the short term, but will turn the most consumer oriented country into an also ran in 20 years if changes are not made in the next few years.

The airline industry has one saving grace. They can't outsource the employees to a foreign country yet or anytime in the foreseeable future. It is morphing, and continues to change as we speak. The adversarial relationship between the pilots and mgt will always be around. Neither one likes the other, but they agree to coexist because they love the business of flying and managing an airline.

My grievance with the pilot's of DL, and NWAC is the fact that the handwriting is on the wall and their MEC's continue to game this out for as long as they can. They are ruled by the senior pilot's who want to squeeze every last dollar out the airline before they retire. It's like backing up to a cliff. Every day there's less and less safe ground to stand on for the young guys.

The unfortunate thing about this business is it's like musical chairs. Nothing gets done until something has to get done. At some point, and I hope it never happens; but if we have a major economic problem that raises interest rates, or another terrorist attack, there won't be very many chairs left to sit in.
 
Lowecur,

That is a management slant. Come on now, you know you can't just give up the whole farm without guarantees. (I know there aren't any guarantees in life....) Also, Delta is different compared to the others when it comes to unions and the ability to get instant cash savings---which they can with a snap of the fingers.... I really don't think the 30% deal plus the other huge cuts (per diem , vacation pay, productivuty increase, elimination of the no furlough clause, reductions in night pay, reductions in INTL pay, reductions in 401K contributiuons, and increases in medical premiums) would pass with this pilot group---the whole lot----especially since hardly any other cuts fromt the other groups (except a small one for the stews) have been announced. That just isn't right---and that isn't just from the senior pilots. I think Grinstein will have to settle for a lower % pay cut (around 20-22% total including the May raise) and some partial benefit cuts to get any immediate savings now---and as the economy gets better and the planes continue to fill (the last two weeks I have been almost completely full----yes I know---the RASM might not be going up.....) he will have a harder time as time goes by. The analysts have stated (Sam Butrick being one of them, also Moody's) that Grinstein should get what he can now and get immediate savings NOW. We'll see what happens---but don't totally blame it on the senior guys--a lot of them will bail out May 1st (maybe up to 300 of them---with the Gatt rate again very low and possibly going up again soon).

Bye Bye---General Lee;)
 
Poor AA pilot

Can you image that poor AA pilot has to stop playing so much golf and now he even has to send his kids to a public school. What a joke, welcome to the real world.
 
General Lee said:
Lowecur,

The analysts have stated (Sam Butrick being one of them, also Moody's) that Grinstein should get what he can now and get immediate savings NOW. We'll see what happens---but don't totally blame it on the senior guys--a lot of them will bail out May 1st (maybe up to 300 of them---with the Gatt rate again very low and possibly going up again soon).

Bye Bye---General Lee;)

Problem is that Buttrick and Moody's don't care if DL is a competitive airline. You think Buttrick cares if DL is still flying in ten years? He only wants DL to get quick cuts, so he can can get a quick pop in the stock (DL's stock price is well below where he projected).

I wouldn't place most of the blame on the senior DL pilots. The blame for DL failing to get meaningful cuts stems from poor management (they should've gone after cuts starting back in late '01/early '02) and ALPA national using DL as its poster boy for wages. Somehow ALPA wants DL to keep its wages super high, yet DL is supposed to compete with the likes of United and USAirways with their super low-wages?
 
Now that I've had some sleep I think I see what Lowecur is talking about.

The high debt load at some airlines like ATA are a drag on earnings and has to be offset by something else...maybe Labor costs....if you want to equalize costs with a low debt competitor.


I don't even know if debt payments are considered in CASM numbers. I should have taken accounting classes.

BUT...tons of cash in the bank usually spells trouble as management and labor invent ways to spend it. The culture at that airline turns away from cost consciousness.

So the situation, as I see it thru my myopic eye, is a necessity at Delta and AA mainline to use International route profits to stabilize domestic operations because of high debt. The alternative is to lower labor and other domestic route costs so they are LOWER than the competition.

If you can figure out a way to charge higher fares more power to you.
 
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General Lee said:
Lowecur,

We'll see what happens---but don't totally blame it on the senior guys--a lot of them will bail out May 1st (maybe up to 300 of them---with the Gatt rate again very low and possibly going up again soon).

Bye Bye---General Lee;)

General,

Don't know if you remember, but I told you more dudes would bail. I have to point out when I'm right since it is so infrequent. And another quarter with some special charges.

You guys need to figure out a way to get more or newer aircraft on the property. Look how mercilessy Airtran is doing the same. Somebody shake the senior Delta pilots by the shoulders and let them know the company is at risk. Do they care??

The times have changed and you can't use regional scope to affect mainline growth anymore. You NEED regional growth to keep the pressure on Southwest, Airtran and USAir.

Regards,

FBJ
 
Management could help this by giving employees raises when profits improve. If they make more money than they anticipated give them a raise earlier instead of waiting till a contract year and getting slammed all at once.
Just a thought
 
<<their MEC's continue to game this out for as long as they can. They are ruled by the senior pilot's who want to squeeze every last dollar out the airline before they retire.>>

Hello, have you been around a contract or two? Times are good and mgt says "a contract is a contract" we'd love to share the wealth but we can't. . .it wouldn't be fair. Regardless of the economy, negotiations always take 1 to 3 years after a contract expires, so the company can bank the savings.

Now everything has gone to sh!t and companies don't even want to hear about a contract is a contract and they expect expedited negotiations. BS! It is their rules we play by. Now if we all lived in the "old" Delta or Southwest family, then sure playing harda$$ wouldn't even be on the table. But the family was broken and it wasn't the unions that filed for divorce. I am not a union lover, they have plenty of sins too, but we want to forget the captain is an ass b/c the ship ran aground and we are all bailing water.

The DAL CEO is being greedy he wants it all or nothing. Take the 20% now. He can always go back to the well and poor mouth again. . .it worked for Airways three times.

The root of the problem is a ticket from the US to Germany is 30% cheaper today (in inflated dollars!!) than it was 20 years ago. Maybe it is not the right of every backpack flipflopper to travel anywhere in the country for $200. The industry grew to accommodated every potsmoking body-art billboard and now we are all screwed if every seat is not filled or we lose $10 of pricing power. Oh remember the days when pilots were respected, passengers got dressed up and . . ."Hey, Busdriver dude, stop daydreaming and get me some more pretzels and another Coke."

Pilot wages will not solve this problem. You have heard it before, if every pilot flew for free the airlines would still be in the dumper. But if you insist on looking at labor costs, then take off the PC colored glasses. I think pilots deserve $200K a year. It takes approximately 10 years to make one qualified enough to be a beginner at a major. Airlines can afford it. A mechanic deserves $35-50/hr. It takes 5-10 years to make a good one. (Let the flames begin) A bag thrower, a gate agent, and a CSR deserve about $26k/yr and can top out at $35K when they are old, ugly and you don't want them up front anymore. You can make these people all day long. If USAir was paying people 50 grand to break the handles off your suitcase, how can you pretend to be surprised that they were not competitive? Not everyone can die a millionaire, not everyone deserves to.

There is only one solution and unfortunately it is impossible. Rather than adding planes and routes, ALL companies need to reduce capacity to increase pricing power. Supply vs. Demand. Your service has become commoditized. It is impossible because everyone needs to do it. A few will always see it as an opportunity to gain marketshare and it fails. Name one industry which became commoditized and was able to turn it around and become wildly profitable again. You can't do it, they don't exist.
 
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I think it will be "lack of interest" that will eventually kill AMR.

With the massive paycuts just about every other major pays more now. Morale is rock bottom. Extremely divisive mgmt style.

At Eagle, I foresee a distinct difficulty filling classes in the future.
 
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Medflyer,

I agree with some of your assessment. I also agree with others when it comes to the "senior" people---but really that is in every employee group. Delta could have taken care of the higher end wages at other groups too, instead of being "cheap" in good times and not giving them an opportunity for a decent reitirement. Our Flight attendants, for example, are paid very well compared to others on an hourly basis---but hardly any retire because they haven't ever had any good reason to. Most of the 14,000 flight attendants are fairly senior, with junior reserve at 8 years at some bases. All of the junior stews have been furloughed, leaving the senior ones to stay until age 70 it seems--at the highest pay wage, with a lot of the benefits. It is the same way with the mechanics. I am not trying to bash them---I am stating that our workforce is a lot older and more expensive than the new people at lower wages at Jetblue etc. Had Delta tried to give them a way out 4 years ago when they still had a lot of cash, they would now have those younger ones with less years of service still here, making less per hour but still loving their jobs---happy to have one.


Flyboeingjets,

I am glad that you saw this coming TOO. I think I stated way back that we had more than 1500 pilots that were over 50 and had more than 25 years of service with Delta---qualifying for full retirement. Supposedly we have around 700 now--and many may try to leave again due to several factors---a lower Gatt rate (the lower the gatt rate --the higher the lump sum), lack of higher movement opportunity---getting rid of future 777 orders doesn't help the guy who is around 700 or so in seniority...., and retirement is based off of your BEST 3 consequtive years, not your last three. So, if we are expecting a pay cut---their last three years are probably behind them. I wish them the best and don't mind moving up while they leave. As far as costing the company money--a lot of that is a paper right off, since the retirment is pretty much fully funded. The company may have to take some money out to pay for part of it, but not the full amount. But, it will cost them money to upgrade people---but that will probably be offset by future pay cuts initially.



Jetexas,

I don't think so at Eagle---plenty of Tab Express guys out there to fill classes, and don't forget "The Guat."

Bye Bye---General Lee;)
 
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'Who would have thought that after 14 years in the business I'd be talking cutbacks?' Maybe he should have paid attention to the business instead of building a 4,000 sq. ft. house in Coleyville!

Who'd have thought I'd be getting furloughed after 15 years? Well, the EAL, PAA and Braniff guys for a start. There is virtually no job security in this country today(excepting lawyers, lobbyists and politicians/whores).

BTW, we just applied for financial aid to keep our kids in private school and are willing to move into an apartment. My kid's education has always been a priority to us.

I'm not planning on returning to AA when I get called back. Not because I don't like AA, it's because of the debt load. What do they think killed TWA? Everything was mortgaged to the hilt by Carl and there was nothing to borrow against. AA is now in a similar position. The debt service will be over $300 million a year in a few years and will go up from there. Sure, they can refinance and gain more value for the assets that are mortgaged--but not THAT much more. And how much better rates will they get?

AA is running out of airspeed and ideas. TC
 

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