government accounting office say's "no pilot "shortage."

[jmreii]

1) Mainline increase pay to it's regional partners for their feed to hubs
2) Regionals increase FO starting pay to $40-50K & increase min days off to 14
Problem solved.
It only takes an increase of about $3-5 per ticket if you want to pass the cost on to the pax. Heave forbid that it comes out of profits for mainline to retain their regional feed.

There are only 88 717's going to Delta. They came from AirTran so the overall fleet has not increased. I can just see these guys doing ATL-RDU turns all day starting at $68/hr for FO's! Delta's minimum labor cost per hour is $241 on the 717's or $2.06 per seat. If we compare for comparison's sake - say, Compass. If Compass raised starting FO pay to $50/per hour with a guarantee of 75 hours/month. That's $45K. Go up $1 per year and top out at year 4 or 5. Their 1st yr CA & FO labor cost would be $115 or $1.51 per seat for a 76 seater. So, Compass (or any other regional with 76 seats) can raise FO pay and still provide that feed at a 27% savings in wages alone compared to mainline.

We'll see how important the regional feed is to mainline. Regionals, which are basically staffing companies, exist because they provided a cheaper alternative to mainline flying the same feed routes. There has to be a savings for the regional model to exist. But if you can't attract the thousands of currently qualified ATP's out there then the ability to provide the service shrinks. If there are fewer little planes to bring people to the big planes then what? The law of supply and demand would have it that the price goes up for the little planes or find an alternative method. Hmmm.....

Now what?

Somewhere in the framework of supply and demand a business's share/investors will need to feel comfortable making a profit. The airline business is a risky business. The more risk is taken, the larger the reward or why be involve. If the business model isn't working and its clearly not then nothing left to do but cease to exist. Businesses make these types of decisions each and everyday. Airlines are no different!

 

[trip]

8K tt & 3200 jet PIC and my phone's not ringing...except from the regionals and I'm not answering.

Curious, what it would take for you to "answer"?

 

[Crash Pad]

Curious, what it would take for you to "answer"?

50K signing. 20 days off guaranteed. Waive first year pay. Captain override. Base of my choice with positive space commute paid as DH. Travel bennies.

I think that would make me consider a regional. Kind of a part time, stay at home dad, "look I'm an airline pilot" type job. You would still be getting me on the cheap. The Delta 900 oops I mean 717 rates make that look like chump change.

 

[Carl_Spackler]

People can debate that there is or is not a pilot shortage until they are blue in the face. It would help to define when a shortage exists.

If a regional can't fill a new hire class, is that a shortage? For that airline it is, although I wouldn't consider it an industry shortage. How about if none of the regionals can fill new hire classes. Whould that be an industry shortage, or only if majors can't fill classes?

The numbers are the numbers. Call it what you want. Seems like airline management wants to stick their heads in the sand and pretend that a problem does not exist.

Endeavor lost over 5.5% of their pilots over the last two months and they were replaced by eight new hires. I'm sure this trend is consistent for most if not all of the regionals, but nothing will change until regional capacity shrinks so much that mainline carriers lose connecting traffic that requires RJ's. Unfortunately, this problem has been years in the making and even if wages were doubled it would still take 3-4 years to take somebody off the street and get them in a cockpit.

When fares go up due to reduced capacity, people will be begging the government to do something. Of course the govt forcing us to work under the RLA has certainly not helped the piloting profession.

 

[General Lee]

Under Part 135 an operator can have 10 or less seats. Great Lakes is attempting use this (rather operate under 121) to continue paying pilots crap wages and keep flying those gov't subsidized small town flights. If the Feds look the other way and allow it, then here's where new pilots will build their hours to the 1500 mark.

As for leg room Jenny, it's still like 8 seats where they are bolted down now due to W&B from a cabin diagram I saw somewhere, at least at Gret Lakes. I believe they have one other seat (9total) closer to the cockpit, I mean flight deck, for the Feds to do observation flights.

Jenny, is it really true that Deltahhh is getting 717s? Wow, that's big huh. Putz!

You better believe it Freebrd. Those 717s have and will recapture routes that were handed to you guys. There are more out there in Europe (Volotea and Blue1 fly them) besides the Hawaiian 717s that have tons of cycles. More will come as your 50 seaters are parked. Sad but true.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

Bob-
Pilots show up for work bc they're already invested and holding out hope (and currency) for that major job-
I don't begrudge that-

What you see now is a delayed labor market where pilots aren't choosing to even enter the career, not stay once qualified for better-
So... The whole point of the argument is that pilots aren't showing up for those wages. That's what the regionals are complaining about. They actually thought they could make our career pay that low forever....

 

[PBRstreetgang]

You better believe it Freebrd. Those 717s have and will recapture routes that were handed to you guys. There are more out there in Europe (Volotea and Blue1 fly them) besides the Hawaiian 717s that have tons of cycles. More will come as your 50 seaters are parked. Sad but true.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Sweet Jeebus Genny,
The airframe you dream will save the world from global warming, end world hunger and serve as an incubator for unicorns, is no longer in production. Your fantasy airline bought the Yugo of the airline world, there aren't any more being made. The 717 and the refinery will both be placed on the iceberg to slowly recede towards the horizon of forgotten bad corporate ideas. Much like "New Coke" and polyester leisure suits(like yours).
How's that refinery? Anderson got a mini chubb, he pulled the wool over the pilots eyes and on a drunk bet bought a fleet of Yugos.

 

[General Lee]

Sweet Jeebus Genny,
The airframe you dream will save the world from global warming, end world hunger and serve as an incubator for unicorns, is no longer in production. Your fantasy airline bought the Yugo of the airline world, there aren't any more being made. The 717 and the refinery will both be placed on the iceberg to slowly recede towards the horizon of forgotten bad corporate ideas. Much like "New Coke" and polyester leisure suits(like yours).
How's that refinery? Anderson got a mini chubb, he pulled the wool over the pilots eyes and on a drunk bet bought a fleet of Yugos.

So wait a second, you think 88 planes "leased" from SWA AFTER they pay $100 million to refurbish and give C checks to them is a "bad deal?" Really? When the leases expire DL also got the ability to buy them outright at the "then" current price, which will be close to $4-5 million each. Even the engines were a good deal. 88 of them is a perfect number for the smallest fleet DL has, and besides the Hawaiian birds, there are other 717s out there in Europe.

How's the refinery? It has taken the middle man out of purchasing Jet A, and has lowered overall gas prices on the East Coast. You should have seen CNBC last week with a group of their analysts praising Richard Anderson for his innovation (including the refinery) and his forward thinking. The refinery itself hasn't made much of a profit at all, but DL's stock price has skyrocketed. How is SKW doing? How about your buddies at Expressjet? What a total joke. Is it true you guys are mass emailing Republic guys to get them to come over? Wow. Your part of the industry is not doing very well.

And I have talked to guys flying the 717 now, and they like it. Pretty advanced with an MD11 like cockpit. What's great is that they will be taking more of your current routes, and that was Anderson's intentions. He doesn't like RJs, especially 50 seaters.

Speaking of Yugo's, where are your MRJs? Ahahahaha!




Bye Bye---General Lee


From the Businessweek article again for PBR:


"One of the more interesting tactics is a scheme by Delta to replace regional jets with larger planes, part of a deal it struck in its last pilot contract. Delta acquired 88 Boeing 717s fromSouthwest Airlines, even getting the seller to kick in $100 million for new paint and other refurbishments, which it now deploys on short-to-medium routes such as Huntsville, Ala., and Savannah, Ga.

"The confluence of events suggested to me that [Delta CEO] Richard Anderson was reading the tea leaves," Akins says. "He saw what was coming with the regionals."

 

[Freebrd]

.He doesn't like RJs, especially 50 seaters.

Bye Bye---General Lee


Oh but he likes those big RJs (which RA buys & outsources instead of allowing yall to fly 'em) that you sold out for Jenny, again, and again, and again. Man I'm losing count how many times you allow your flying to be outsourced Jennifer. Putz!

 

[General Lee]

.He doesn't like RJs, especially 50 seaters.

Bye Bye---General Lee


Oh but he likes those big RJs (which RA buys & outsources instead of allowing yall to fly 'em) that you sold out for Jenny, again, and again, and again. Man I'm losing count how many times you allow your flying to be outsourced Jennifer. Putz!

Again Freturd, you don't get it. You can't just dump all the RJs at once. Many were on leases that couldn't be broken, and the manufacturer wouldn't take them back without a smaller "trade in." You just don't seem to understand this stuff. Then, those new 76 seaters were tied to the 717s.

So, a lot fewer 50 seaters (215 fewer), more 717s than new 76 seaters (88 vs 70), and a 18.5% raise over 3 years. Darn good deal. Those 88 717s alone will bring over 600 upgrades at $195 per hour (Jan 1st, 2015 pay rate).


Looks like Freeturd you still can't debate. Over 140 fewer RJs means less outsourcing.....


Bye Bye---General Lee