Fractional Retirement

[Gruman Fan]

41% for me. 34% for my spouse.

Those government jobs sure do look better and better these days. (excluding the ones involving being shot at on a daily basis).

 

[Bronco Buster]

Don't know where you guys got that 10 year BS. but it took the Dow until 1952 to recover to its 1928 high.

 

[FMR8251]

Don't know where you guys got that 10 year BS. but it took the Dow until 1952 to recover to its 1928 high.

The Dow number just represents the average indexed stock price of the 30 companies Dow decides to track. Comparing that number alone does not determine whether you made or lost money over a given period. Just as an overly simple example, say you invest $100 in the "Dow" when it is at 9000, over the next 10 years, the Dow reaches 12000 and you are way up, then it crashes back to 9000, are you back to your original $100? No, you would have more because over the past 10 years, you have been accumulating interest and reinvesting dividents and capital gains. There are many factors, such as fees, not included in that example, but the point is, the Dow is just 30 companies, it is not the stock market.

 

[jetlag7]

The Dow number just represents the average indexed stock price of the 30 companies Dow decides to track. Comparing that number alone does not determine whether you made or lost money over a given period. Just as an overly simple example, say you invest $100 in the "Dow" when it is at 9000, over the next 10 years, the Dow reaches 12000 and you are way up, then it crashes back to 9000, are you back to your original $100? No, you would have more because over the past 10 years, you have been accumulating interest and reinvesting dividents and capital gains. There are many factors, such as fees, not included in that example, but the point is, the Dow is just 30 companies, it is not the stock market.

Great! So when it hits 14,000 again (sometime around 2029) I'll be ready to SELL! SELL! SELL!!

 

[shroomwell]

The ten year thing is BS. The 1928-1952 is a good one to look at, and there are other periods where you can use the real inflation adjusted terms and it looks worse. That means you would have made more in the money market fund over 20 years than the stock market.

For a good look at what markets can do after bubble blow offs go to yahoo finance and pull up a 30 years chart on the Japanese Nikkie. It is very enlightening. Just imagine if you bought the Nikkei at the top.

I have been money market for 18 months now, and in know way see this as a buying opportunity. Be careful of the listening to the media on this, they have a very poor track record.

 

[johnsonrod]

My 401K is now a 101K....