DL & NWA will probably file before Oct 17

[lowecur]

I believe both of these companies will file Chapt 11, and with the new BK law just signed by Dubya, there will be a late summer rush to get in by the deadline of Oct 17th.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_27/b3941102_mz020.htm

 

[K-Mart]

Interesting article.

 

[FDJ2]

Yawn.

 

[DIAMONDDD]

Hey K-Mart, that Avatar of yours is spooky. I swear it tried to talk me into sending in $150.00 as I was looking at it.

 

[skykid]

Good article. Problem is, Northwest and Delta would both be extremely complicated cases in Ch11 and would be hurt tremendously by the new procedures. Here's hoping it doesn't work out that way.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Yep and with oil topping $60 a barrel....

The problem with oil is not only tight supply, it is made worse by the fact the dollar is being devalued by Bush's monetary policies. Bush intended this as a way to pump US exports and domestic manufacturing. But, the US is no longer a manufacturing economy. Our exports have not increased much at all, while our tastes for foreign automobiles and luxury goods are continuing to be fed by cheap credit.

Much of the increase in the cost of oil is a result of the dollar’s decrease in value. The Dollar has lost 38% to the Euro since 2002. If oil prices were 38% lower, our airlines would be in much better shape.

As is, I think employees and creditors are tapped out. There is not enough money to float Delta a lot longer. Sources like the spin off of ASA ( and its fleet of high cost 50 seat RJ’s ) just is not possible if Delta does not have a network to feed.

 

[WillowRunVortex]

NWA, will file if they dont get concessions from PFAA and Mechanics, If they do they wont

 

[WillowRunVortex]

Yep and with oil topping $60 a barrel....

The problem with oil is not only tight supply, it is made worse by the fact the dollar is being devalued by Bush's monetary policies. Bush intended this as a way to pump US exports and domestic manufacturing. But, the US is no longer a manufacturing economy. Our exports have not increased much at all, while our tastes for foreign automobiles and luxury goods are continuing to be fed by cheap credit.

Much of the increase in the cost of oil is a result of the dollar’s decrease in value. The Dollar has lost 38% to the Euro since 2002. If oil prices were 38% lower, our airlines would be in much better shape.

As is, I think employees and creditors are tapped out. There is not enough money to float Delta a lot longer. Sources like the spin off of ASA ( and its fleet of high cost 50 seat RJ’s ) just is not possible if Delta does not have a network to feed.

http://politics.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/gaspricestoohighnotbyhistoricalstandards

 

[On Your Six]

I believe both of these companies will file Chapt 11, and with the new BK law just signed by Dubya, there will be a late summer rush to get in by the deadline of Oct 17th.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_27/b3941102_mz020.htm

Shouldn't you be talking to your GEICO customers right now? I love your unequivocal "I believe" - yeah you and other wannabe analysts like Mike Boyd. He predicted UAL's quick demise four years ago.

When oil reaches $90 per barrel you can expect JetBlue, AirTran and SWA joining the Chap. 11 queue as well....

 

[~~~^~~~]

WillowRunVortex:

When writing about oil at $60 a barrell on this board, we are more interested in its effect on the price of jet fuel. We are a long way from the days during the 70's gas crisis when jet fuel was a nickel a gallon.

On your Six is correct. Unless fuel prices abate, or ticket prices nearly double, Jet Blue, AirTran and Southwest will join the party at the steps of the Courthouse. No one can make money in this environment.

So it is a matter of seeing who survives long enough to see sufficient capacity drop away for ticket prices to increase.

By the way, I agree with your article, but not your choice of engines. I have a couple of SVT products in the garage and eagerly await what those guys will do with the 5.4L. Early prototypes of the Lightning were putting out over 550HP. So far, Ford has nixed the idea of a 170MPH 5,300 pound truck. But if that was in the Mustang - Y I P P E E.

~~~^~~~

 

[AAflyer]

Shouldn't you be talking to your GEICO customers right now? I love your unequivocal "I believe" - yeah you and other wannabe analysts like Mike Boyd. He predicted UAL's quick demise four years ago.

When oil reaches $90 per barrel you can expect JetBlue, AirTran and SWA joining the Chap. 11 queue as well....

I don't think you would need oilas high as $90 for JB and AirTran to go Chpt. 11.

I thought I had read some where that at $60 both these companies would start feeling the heat, SWA would also be feeling it right now if not hedged at mid to high $20s.

On a positive note, it looks like oil has dropped over a $1.00 down to $59.45... OPEC has said they will increase, and our reserves in the US will be at 100% by August. I guess only time will tell. Wish I had a crystal ball like
Lowecur.

AA

 

[lowecur]

Common people, do you actually believe fares would not rise to adjust for higher oil. Use a little common sense.

 

[PCL_128]

Common people, do you actually believe fares would not rise to adjust for higher oil. Use a little common sense.

Common sense is not a pre-requisite for becoming airline management. Haven't you been paying attention?

 

[michael707767]

Common people, do you actually believe fares would not rise to adjust for higher oil. Use a little common sense.

the problem with the airline industry, as Gordon Bethune once said, is we are only as smart as our dumbest management team. All it takes is once box of rocks at one airline (DAL) to charge too little, and the rest pretty much have to match.

PS the fact that lowecur thinks DAL and NWA will file convinces me it will never happen.

 

[iaflyer]

Common people, do you actually believe fares would not rise to adjust for higher oil. Use a little common sense.

Well, most business WOULD raise fares to adjust - it would make sense. Unfortunetly for the legacy carriers, SWA hedged fuel at some pretty low prices. So at the moment SWA doesn't need to raise prices. I think the legacy carriers think that if they raise prices the passengers will scoot over to SWA and leave their airplanes empty, making them lose even more money.

iaflyer