Are the fractionals recession proof?

[7777]

I had a great military flying job in 1975. Then Saigon fell, we downsized the military, pilots recruited and trained for the war suddenly found themselves riffed, moved to non-flying jobs, and non-promotable. Then in 1991 we had the "Peace Dividend" again riff, non-promotion and movement to non-flying billets followed. I bailed in 1977, got a flying job in the reserves. 18 months later I am getting letters from the Navy, sayin g they are short of pilots, would you like to come back. The gov't is a fickel employer, watch what happens if the "I will quit Iraq" candidate gets elected.

That is true. I lived through the early 90's riff and now the military is paying for it as they are screaming for pilots from these year groups. It is very easy to get back in the military now if you were in a flying MOS (152, 155, 153, ect.). I know of one guy that was working a great civilian job for several years and ended up going back on Active Duty just to reset his retirement to todays pay rate. He is probably going to do a 3 year tour and then retire again. He said it is very easy to get back in if you want to. Be prepared to go overseas though.

Another thing about that 'riff' in the early 90's was they were offering money to pilots that retired early. I know several that took the money and then came back on several years later and were not required to pay that money back.

I don't know of anyone that was kicked out due to not being promoted. I agree with what you are saying though.

 

[Publishers]

Squonk, I do not think that we can look at the situtation after 9/11 and compare it to now. The crisis here is one of a falling dollar not terrorism. In 9/11 the people who got hurt like the airlines were quite specific and many were not. The only thing that is similar is that the airlines were suffering even before the terrorist acts.
The falling dollar which leads to fuel increases is one of the things that has a tremendous impact on all prices including basics like food stuffs, plastics, and things we do not directly connect.
I think the card sales will decrease soon, followed by people wanting out of their shares. The problem with fractionals in general is you are so tied to others, both owners and Netjets ability to sell off shares. I think that Netjets Europe has picked a real good time to get their act togehter, Euro going farther and the management stronger. I certainly don't think Netjets or FSI are in any trouble, but, they will be effected. The good thing is the labor problems have diminished at the time when other things have come up. Looking to the other companies, I think Flops is sort of in the perfect storm. Bad labor relations, new ownership, change in business plan, and not thought of as top of the market. The manufacturerer owned Citation Shares and Flexjet are in good stead because the parents are very strong. Lower end like Aventair and these types may struggles some more. These things all seem to revolve around the question of endurance not depth.

 

[gunfyter]

Publishers,

I think card sales will continue. As prospective share-owners might delay the decision to commit to fractional ownership or full ownership. They probably will charter or use jet cards to ride out the slow economy.

 

[doh]

Publishers,

I think card sales will continue. As prospective share-owners might delay the decision to commit to fractional ownership or full ownership. They probably will charter or use jet cards to ride out the slow economy.

I too see the possibility that card sales could increase and actual shares decrease as more people put off buying decisions.

 

[Ultra Grump]

This time last year was very busy, but it has been slow this year.

Unless you are specifically talking about sales, have you looked at the crewops calendar lately? March has been nearly solid red. I've never been as busy as I have this month.

 

[Publishers]

One element of Netjets that the others have problems with, is NJ can cut back the outside charter and become more efficient.
As to the cards, it is iffy if the card sales would go up as they are the people who often are not wanting to make a commitment so they are not locked. So much here revolves around the length and breath of this recession cycle.
In the end, card sales and shares sales diminish but more quiclky with the others than Netjets. Remember card sales covers people like Sentient too who are not a fractional by definition.