Analyst Expects Delta & Pilots To Reach Deal - Blurb...

[Heavy Set]

Comment from Wall Street analyst Sam Buttrick below. Note his comment about protecting shareholder interests - I think the shareholders have a right to sue management if it does not look out for their best interests (fiduciary duty) - and bankruptcy is NEVER good for the shareholders who would be last in line in terms of recovery of value in a bankruptcy. Take a look (Atlanta Journal-Constitution):

A veteran Wall Street analyst says he expects Delta Air Lines and its pilots to reach a pay cut deal outside bankruptcy court. "Delta is now going bankrupt at a more rapid rate ... than the other [big carriers]," UBS analyst Sam Buttrick wrote in a report. "That said, rest slightly assured that we absolutely believe that the company and its pilots will reach a deal prior to a bankruptcy filing — with a showdown perhaps likely this fall/winter." Buttrick added that "brinksmanship will likely be required to drive the outcome." Even with a pilot deal, he said, it will remain unclear whether savings are sufficient to spark a recovery at Delta but added, "management owes it to shareholders to try and pilots owe it to themselves against more severe alternatives."

 

[Tim47SIP]

Pilot Cuts

I agree with his statements. I believe this will go similar to the American scenario. DALPA is stuck between a rock and a hard place as they can get a better deal out of BK than in. The best they could hope for in BK would be the top of industry average, over a 47% reduction in pay. GG is also wanting to reduce mainlines numbers down to 5000 or so, so that means more furloughs unfortunately. As stated in several other posts, GG is setting up the company financially to use BK as a tool to get DALPA to capitulate, and I think it will work. The stock will more than likely go to $2.00 or so and then go up considerably after a deal is reached. I hope DALPA can get a fair deal out of this, but it is going to be sticky for them.

 

[Heavy Set]

"GG is also wanting to reduce mainlines numbers down to 5000 or so, so that means more furloughs unfortunately."

Tim,

Where the heck did you come up with that statement? Who told you that? What is your source? Do you have an exact quote? I highly doubt that and I have never heard that before. You can bet that the mainliners would never agree to that - any furloughees would likely take your job if that was the case - but it would never happen.

Do us a favor and name your source - otherwise you are spreading reckless rumors and unreliable data. Source please - I want to see the exact quote.

 

[Tim47SIP]

Where the heck did you come up with that statement? Who told you that? What is your source? Do you have an exact quote? I highly doubt that and I have never heard that before. You can bet that the mainliners would never agree to that - any furloughees would likely take your job if that was the case - but it would never happen.


It was written in a couple of papers, one being the AJC. I will try to go back and find the exact quotes from GG or whoever put out that information. It has been posted a few times here in the past as well referencing those numbers. The General rebutted it (and I agreed with him) saying that with Delta expanding and pulling planes out of the desert, that it was highly unlikely. He also stated that GG was not talking actual individuals, but rather work rules that would equate to that number. I took it as actual individuals but he knows more about it than I do. Also, I am not happy about mainlines situation either, but threatening to take my job isn't helping anyone. Lets just see what happens and go from there. P.S. I have already helped three Delta furloughed guys get jobs at ASA and am working on a fourth. So give me a break!

 

[rjcap]

"GG is also wanting to reduce mainlines numbers down to 5000 or so, so that means more furloughs unfortunately."


I was told that same ballpark number from a soon to be retired Delta 757 Captain. He was retiring 5 years early to preserve his retirment package.

 

[XRMEFLYER]

"GG is also wanting to reduce mainlines numbers down to 5000 or so, so that means more furloughs unfortunately."

Tim,

Where the heck did you come up with that statement? Who told you that? What is your source? Do you have an exact quote? I highly doubt that and I have never heard that before. You can bet that the mainliners would never agree to that - any furloughees would likely take your job if that was the case - but it would never happen.

Do us a favor and name your source - otherwise you are spreading reckless rumors and unreliable data. Source please - I want to see the exact quote.

Likely take his job huh? Further evidence of the sense of entitlement that some who fly larger planes have, like they are owed something.

 

[Heavy Set]

I heard from a retired Delta pilot's ex-sister-in-law that all ASA and Comair pilots will be able to bid Delta 777 positions and fly at Mesa-level Beech 1900D wages...

This is all BS - but I guess this is a rumor board. People need to back up their assertions with facts and actually QUOTE others if they are to be deemed "reliable." That's one aspect of this board that I do not like - too many loose rumors floating around with little or no backup sources. You need to show a concrete source or it is just a reckless rumor...

XREMEFLYER,

I am not a Delta employee. However, if you think the mainliners would allow such reductions in force you are mistaken. If that were to happen, you can bet that the mainliners would look at some way to preserve jobs - and that could mean a J4J situation - but I highly doubt it would EVER come to that. Delta is increasing its capacity and taking aircraft out of the desert - it will need more pilots. Plus, if Delta gets its act together, new 100 seater could possibly require more pilots (from the furloughees) as well.

It's not a sense of entitlement - its negotiating leverage. Delta understands that mainline pilots not flying would seriously bust its bottom line (worse than current situation). If Comair pilots were to slow down, Delta could outsource more to Skyway or CHQ or Skywest or whomever. Delta needs the mainliners and seriously pi$$ing them off would not be a good idea - at least that's what my Delta buddies tell me. There might be a sense of entitlement among some Delta pilots, but in reality they are trying to do what you would do as well if you were in their position - preserve their jobs and industry-leading wages (keep the bar high for all pilots).

 

[skiddriver]

That begs a question. I regularly jumpseat on the 732 to work and the Delta crews I've spoken with have said that all the 737s are out of the desert except one with a bad fuselage seam (paint removal popped out the sealant?) which is awaiting a fix.

My understanding (admittedly just hearsay from Delta guys) is that there really aren't many aircraft left to return to service. It makes sense if you think about the permanent retirement of the 727s and the MD-11s. I conjecture that even with a few more aircraft coming out of retirement and senior guys retiring, Delta doesn't have anywhere close to the number of airframes it needs to bring back the 1040 pilots from furlough that they've been ordered to.

General, ask around and do the math. I'm swagging you guys need to buy about 30 to 40 narrow bodies to give everyone a seat.

 

[skiddriver]

... preserve their jobs and industry-leading wages (keep the bar high for all pilots).

Well, two out of three ain't bad.

 

[XRMEFLYER]

Heavy Set,

They already have "allowed" a pretty sizeable reduction in force with no J4J arrangement. Do you think that it was not already proposed by Dalpa the last time around? Why then is no such arrangement in place here if they have so much influence and the thought of making them unhappy is so frightening to Delta management?

Let me be absolutely clear on this: I hope that all of this is strictly a theoretical exercise and do not wish for many reasons for further pilot furloughs at the parent company.

That said, I believe that should it come to that, those who will stand to be on the still employed side of the cutoff line will do what is best for them(protect their pension and what will be left of their QOL and pay) and the guys who will be on the other side and what will become of them will be way below those and many other issues in order of priority in the minds of the great majority of those who may have to vote on such things. Gals like Private Lee talk a good game, but she will do what is right for her when it comes to brass tacks. They may make a lot of noise about how much they care for one another, but when the ballots are tallied, you can bet they will not fall on their sword for their buddies to be able to fly barbie jets while on sabbatical.

As for the last part of your post, yes I too would be trying to do what I could to knock me out of my seat so that I could still almost make the mortage payment while awaiting recall. But let's not make it out to be some noble thing by saying things like" preserve industry leading wages and keep the bar high for all pilots"
It's looking out for number one and nothing more!

"Keep the bar high for themselves" you mean.

 

[dtfl]

Well..

ALPA and Delta - let's get this **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** deal negotiated so I and We can get back to work.

As far as 5000 pilots? The other post in question says 6k. A former squadron mate of mine was a training dept guy - last year they were discussing this with Mgmt pilots and they said the company wanted to change work rules (ie the CAP) and that would elimate another 1000-1500. That is 6500-7000. So....who knows.
If we go into BK I will never work at Delta again. I realize that. Many folks will be done for. I just hope, that if that happens, BK-more furloughs-pay cut-restructuring, etc. That it wasn't the result of a few senior pilots being hardheaded.
We got a memo the other day saying GG is tired of seeing MAX PAY TO THE LAST DAY (or something lijke that) stickers on flight bags - anyone see that? I hope not. That is a ridiculous way of thinking.

 

[rjcap]

MAX PAY TO THE LAST DAY .

That day is fast approaching.

 

[Heavy Set]

I love it how the regional guys revel in the problems of the mainliners. I seriously hope you are never in a position where you could lose 30% of your pay. Maybe then you would understand their positions. Let's hope that IF bankruptcy happens, you guys also get your contracts altered so that you can feel the pain too. This is a backstabbing business - makes me sick.

Merry Christmas

 

[skiddriver]

I love it how the regional guys revel in the problems of the mainliners. I seriously hope you are never in a position where you could lose 30% of your pay. Maybe then you would understand their positions. Let's hope that IF bankruptcy happens, you guys also get your contracts altered so that you can feel the pain too. This is a backstabbing business - makes me sick.

Merry Christmas

You know junior, you get up on your high horse pretty often here. So let me ask you this. Where exactly was some regional guy revelling in mainlines troubles?

And when one of the few Delta guys on this board posts this...

Ganja,

Dalpa will do whatever they can to keep the 100 seaters, even $crewing the junior guys to get them---ie lower pay. It happened with Delta Express and the 737-200s. Sorry.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Where is your critical response?

I don't think you have 12,000 hours, I think you are a airline wanabee Delta sycophant who's assertions like this one...

There might be a sense of entitlement among some Delta pilots, but in reality they are trying to do what you would do as well if you were in their position - preserve their jobs and industry-leading wages (keep the bar high for all pilots).

...are incredibly naive. The Delta guys are going to do what they need to preserve their pay and retirements. Whatever they do will have nothing to do with "preserving the profession". The only people who use that expression without snickering are union negotiators and 1200 hour CFI's who still think that "we're all in this one together" and "if I post enough nice things about Delta they may hire me when I get the mins". Which are you? Specifically, since you've never said, which airline you furloughed from and for which 747 and 727 outfits have you flown for?

 

[46Driver]

I love it how the regional guys revel in the problems of the mainliners. I seriously hope you are never in a position where you could lose 30% of your pay. Maybe then you would understand their positions. Let's hope that IF bankruptcy happens, you guys also get your contracts altered so that you can feel the pain too. This is a backstabbing business - makes me sick.

Merry Christmas

Reality Check. 30% of their pay is more than I make all year from my airline.

 

[scopeCMRandASA]

Reality Check. 30% of their pay is more than I make all year from my airline.

So?

That's your problem


--a concerned regional pilot

 

[46Driver]

I didn't say it wasn't my problem - but it does put things in a different perspective.

 

[Palerider957]

Heavy Set:


No one is gloating over possible BK at DAL. No one wants to see an additional thousand pilots on the street. What gets regional drivers fired up is the attitude of mainline pilots who have looked down their noses at us for years.

Mainline pilots also like to blame all of their woes on regional jets. Do they realize how rediculous they sound?? We have no control over what, where, how we fly. We simply go where we're told. Yes the regionals have expanded, this has slowed the bleeding of cash, but has not stopped it.

Mainline pilots expect regional drivers to "take one for the team," also rediculous. You quite literally threatened us with our jobs, stating "any fourloughees would likely take your job." Well, that's hardly a way to gain support from the regionals. The only reason this hasn't happened is the strength of the RJDC. If I'm not mistaken ASA/CMR are the only WO is the industry who haven't had J4J forced upon them.

How do regionals help mainline? We go to work FAR more often then our mainline counterparts, we work MUCH harder, for literally less then 1/3 the pay, with really crappy work rules, NO retirement or lump sum, and a six year old contract. Don't look for sympathy here.

In the end DAL pilots are their own worst enemy. I remeber before the first round of furloughs, the company put it to DALPA to take a small cut to keep everyone on the property. DALPA refused and the furlough letters came down. If the senior DAL guys are SO willing to use the junior DAL guys as cannon fodder, isn't the real problem within DAL and not with the expansion of the regionals?

A few months back I was jumpseating to DEN and had a nice chat with a senior 767 Captain. I asked him point-blank how much political capital he was willing to expend to help the furloughees, and without batting an eye he said "not much."

You tell me, who is the enemy?

 

[XRMEFLYER]

I love it how the regional guys revel in the problems of the mainliners. I seriously hope you are never in a position where you could lose 30% of your pay. Maybe then you would understand their positions. Let's hope that IF bankruptcy happens, you guys also get your contracts altered so that you can feel the pain too. This is a backstabbing business - makes me sick.

Merry Christmas

First, No one is revelling so quit whining. Second, a guy who is in this business longer than a week should know that these things have happened in the past and will happen again so suck it up and drive on because no one no cares you snivelling hypocrite.

Melly F*@&ing Clismas right back at you!

 

[80drvr]

First, No one is revelling so quit whining. Second, a guy who is in this business longer than a week should know that these things have happened in the past and will happen again so suck it up and drive on because no one no cares you snivelling hypocrite.

Melly F*@&ing Clismas right back at you!

You all are getting a bit nasty. Why don't we all just agree that "it's all about me" and return to civil discourse.