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Analysis: Why JetBlue should worry

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weasel_lips

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2006
Posts
474
Singing the JetBlue blues

Posted Jan 07 2008, 03:38 PM by Robert Walberg
Filed under: FedEx, Travel, JetBlue, AMR, Continental Airlines, Alaska Air


In response to a public relations nightmare last February, JetBlue's management team enacted a customer bill of rights to help restore confidence in the airline. It was a bit gimmicky, but the effort seemed to work as the company just announced a 15% year-over-year jump in revenue passengers for 2007.
Hopefully, management has another gimmick or two up its sleeve to address the nightmarish performance of its stock. Despite the operational improvement, JetBlue's stock is now trading at about $5 per share -- down a whopping 64% over the past 52 weeks. Being trapped on a grounded plane for 10 hours seems painless by comparison.
Of course, JetBlue isn't the only airline to see its stock crash and burn over the past year. AMR Corp, Continental Airlines and Alaska Air Group have tumbled by 60%, 55% and 43%, respectively. High fuel prices, an uncertain economy and changes in regulations have contributed to a very turbulent year. Yet JetBlue was supposed to be different. With leather seats, expanded leg room and free satellite TV/radio for all passengers, this company was supposed to revolutionize the airline industry. So why has JetBlue been more revolting than revolutionary?
First and foremost, the company failed to do anything truly revolutionary. Adding creature comforts is nice for the passenger but it doesn't change the business model -- and it's the business model in the domestic airline industry that's broken. Let's face it, most of us have very little loyalty to an airline anymore. Unless we've racked up hundreds of thousands of miles on a given carrier, price is the only real issue that matters when picking an airline. Scheduling might come into play, but, bottom line, the service is so mediocre-to-lousy across the industry these days that we really just want to get from point A to point B as cheaply and quickly as possible. Oh yeah -- and don't lose our luggage!
So what can JetBlue do to turn fortunes around for its shareholders? Start to think outside, or in this case maybe inside, the box. That TV screen in front of every passenger would make a great place for advertisements. As last year's flight problems prove, we are a captive audience, so take advantage of that fact and put some advertising on the screen. For that matter maybe use one or two channels to sell us something directly. Find a way to monetize that feature.
Maybe try looking at outsourcing baggage delivery. Passengers can carry on up to two bags but anything more gets shipped by someone else (FedEx maybe) at a price to the passenger. Passengers can set up service on airline's Web site at time of booking. Then use the storage space for nonrevenue-generating passenger baggage for revenue-generating cargo. Baggage is a customer relations nightmare for most airline companies so it could be a win-win situation for all involved.
Basically, the company needs to return to the spirit of innovation it showed early on, rather than simply being a dressed up version of the same-old experience. The infusion of cash from Lufthansa, which recently acquired 19% of Jet Blue for $300 million, buys management some time -- but not much. If JetBlue is to soar once again it needs more than a gimmick this time, it needs a bold plan of action. Otherwise, the company can forget about its bill of rights, as customers and investors will end up declaring their independence.
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2008/01/07/singing-the-jetblue-blues.aspx
 
He actually has some good points.

Many of the trailer-trash passengers that JB carries are the type who will buy things off the home shopping network. Git-er-dun!

If the stock keeps dropping like it has been, JB is a prime takeover candidate.

This will be an interesting year.

GP
 
I am sure that the germans had studied and evaluated our potential before they dumped 300Mil into us.

Hope that it will benefit us all here at JB. I sure those folks in FH know what they are doing.
 
Title should be changed to why all airlines should worry. At least JetBlue has the best product out there, by far!! Company is well aware of the problems and stuff is in the works to change it.
 
He actually has some good points.

Many of the trailer-trash passengers that JB carries are the type who will buy things off the home shopping network. Git-er-dun!

If the stock keeps dropping like it has been, JB is a prime takeover candidate.

This will be an interesting year.

GP

Gup- I assume when you actually have to buy airline tickets somehwere you naturally purchase the most expense tickets you can find for the good of the industry?
 
That was such a waste of my time to read that garbage.


I'll 2nd that. I'm cool with being an underdog for now. We'll rise above it....

...but yes, someone said the next few months WILL be interesting. Where's the popcorn.
 
We're pretty sure that Lufthansa Chairman Wolfgang Mayrhuber did not pick up the phone and call Warren Buffett for advice before he decided to invest in JetBlue Airways. If he had, the billionaire investor probably would have told him a thing or two about his own foray into the US airline business, which ended with Buffett suggesting that everyone might have been better off if Wilbur had shot Orville.

(taken from the January '08 issue of ATW editorial)
 
At least JetBlue has the best product out there, by far!! Company is well aware of the problems and stuff is in the works to change it.

Get this guy off the Kool-aid! "stuff is in the works???" please.

Unfortunately, JB does not have enough traction to compete in the long run, and is apparently shrinking their fleet.

They also have zero international to fall back on. Great folks there, but not enough in this cutthroat industry.

I can't imagine they won't be in bankruptcy in another 12-18 months.
 
Get this guy off the Kool-aid! "stuff is in the works???" please.

Unfortunately, JB does not have enough traction to compete in the long run, and is apparently shrinking their fleet.

They also have zero international to fall back on. Great folks there, but not enough in this cutthroat industry.

I can't imagine they won't be in bankruptcy in another 12-18 months.


In a word, wrong, except for the good people part of course.

How is growing your ASMs by 8% in 2008 shrinking?
Even if they sell 5 older airplanes they are still netting 2 320s and 6 190s.

BDA, CUN, SXM, BQN, SDQ, POP, STI, AUA, and 3 cities in PR are all non-domestic routes with many served from more than just JFK (ok the last PR and POP are US territories). Almost 20% of JB's ASMs are to/from the Caribbean.

LH is about to invest $300+ million in Jetblue. How many other airlines are having other airlines writing them checks?

Look, Im a realist, not a kool-aid drinker, but B6 has just about a good of shot at making it as most.
 
In a word, wrong, except for the good people part of course.

How is growing your ASMs by 8% in 2008 shrinking?
Even if they sell 5 older airplanes they are still netting 2 320s and 6 190s.

BDA, CUN, SXM, BQN, SDQ, POP, STI, AUA, and 3 cities in PR are all non-domestic routes with many served from more than just JFK (ok the last PR and POP are US territories). Almost 20% of JB's ASMs are to/from the Caribbean.

LH is about to invest $300+ million in Jetblue. How many other airlines are having other airlines writing them checks?

Look, Im a realist, not a kool-aid drinker, but B6 has just about a good of shot at making it as most.
What he said...
 
In a word, wrong, except for the good people part of course.

How is growing your ASMs by 8% in 2008 shrinking?
Even if they sell 5 older airplanes they are still netting 2 320s and 6 190s.

BDA, CUN, SXM, BQN, SDQ, POP, STI, AUA, and 3 cities in PR are all non-domestic routes with many served from more than just JFK (ok the last PR and POP are US territories). Almost 20% of JB's ASMs are to/from the Caribbean.

LH is about to invest $300+ million in Jetblue. How many other airlines are having other airlines writing them checks?

Look, Im a realist, not a kool-aid drinker, but B6 has just about a good of shot at making it as most.


Yeah what he said so there!!! :laugh:
 
Get this guy off the Kool-aid! "stuff is in the works???" please.

Unfortunately, JB does not have enough traction to compete in the long run, and is apparently shrinking their fleet.

They also have zero international to fall back on. Great folks there, but not enough in this cutthroat industry.

I can't imagine they won't be in bankruptcy in another 12-18 months.

Doesn't some knuckle head say this every few months? Aaaaand we're still turning profits. EVEN with the 2/14 issue, I bet we're still in the green for the year 07.
 
Tune in 1 year from now and lets see if JB has at least 1 if not more marketed international partnerships.

Russ Chew himself has said that we need a larger airframe for latin, south and central america growth as well as possible " eastbound " growth.

New terminal that just like our airplanes we will never have to pay for.

I always get a kick out of these guys that foreshadow the demise of jetblue let me guess they flew with some crusty nwa lifer that doesnt commute that hates his job and blames his management indiscretions on the birth of jetblue. Or maybe they graduated from some top gun college got their rj job and have not gotten called for the interview? These same people probably never set foot on or know even the first thing about jetblue.

There is not one pilot that has a crystal ball. Is my airline going to be here in 5 years? Is yours?
 
i said it last year and i'll say it again. best product, bar none. rode on 'em and enjoyed the three hour leg. it is first class in coach is what it is.

that said, give them time. a few good quarters and some cash flow and it will come back...if we're only talking about stock price. if they can keep growing RPMs and keep cost constant, they'll go from being a candidate for a hostile takeover to an acquirer.
 
i said it last year and i'll say it again. best product, bar none. rode on 'em and enjoyed the three hour leg. it is first class in coach is what it is.

that said, give them time. a few good quarters and some cash flow and it will come back...if we're only talking about stock price. if they can keep growing RPMs and keep cost constant, they'll go from being a candidate for a hostile takeover to an acquirer.

while I totally agree that Blue has the best product out there...it has nothing to do with the product as much as their leadership. In this Wal-Mart society having a top notch product doesn't matter. It is not the hamburger that sells but the hamburger salesman that provides the system. Anyone and everyone can make a better burger than McDonalds...but yet look at them. Gene Simmons said it best...it is not about the Hoover Vacumn Cleaner but about the vacumn cleaner salesman. If Jet Blue's top management isn't careful, Jetblue can fail reguardless of how good their product is. If we are talking about product, then how did SWA become as successful as they have been?
 

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