American/us air hiring vs consolidation

[johnnyb]

True. However, I think realistic worse case scenario for the next 3-5 years is stagnation, not furloughs.

Pilots with 15 months are upgrading on the East.

 

[jonjuan]

As the saying goes past behavior is a good indication of future behavior.

Doug Parker doesn't seem to be a big fan of expansion and ordering aircraft. He spends all of his energy making deals and looking for synergies. He is an outspoken advocate of consolidation. I would expect zero growth, higher pilot utilization, and increasing yields unless he opts for an early retirement. My guess is that he will improve the short term fundamentals in order to drive the stock price higher. Buying aircraft and hiring thousands of pilots does not help the near term bottom line.

I bet he keeps the airline right at block hour mins and hires only to replace retirements. Probably will fill the gaps in the international route map with increased codes sharing.

Yep-didn't someone mention Delta and Northwest were 14,000 pilots and are now under 11,000? You better believe they will squeeze every bit of efficiency/costs out of the pilots so they can compete.

 

[Flybywire44]

As the saying goes past behavior is a good indication of future behavior.

Doug Parker doesn't seem to be a big fan of expansion and ordering aircraft. He spends all of his energy making deals and looking for synergies. He is an outspoken advocate of consolidation. I would expect zero growth, higher pilot utilization, and increasing yields unless he opts for an early retirement. My guess is that he will improve the short term fundamentals in order to drive the stock price higher. Buying aircraft and hiring thousands of pilots does not help the near term bottom line.

I bet he keeps the airline right at block hour mins and hires only to replace retirements. Probably will fill the gaps in the international route map with increased codes sharing.

True, but the market was previously saturated.

The 777, 787 & 350 orders imply that American will indeed expand into the Asia, Australia and maybe Africa.

 

[Green]

True, but the market was previously saturated.

The 777, 787 & 350 orders imply that American will indeed expand into the Asia, Australia and maybe Africa.

Those orders you mention total roughly 70 aircraft. Give or take a few. There are something like 80 767 aircraft in the combined company. Many of them are long past their sell by date. I would be surprised if they are still flying 767's by the time the last 350/787 arrives. The 12 777's might represent growth but I'm sure some of the older 200's are getting ready for pasture over the next 5-10 years. Us Airways has some pretty old 330's as well.

They won't be able to compete 5-10 years down the road flying old gas guzzlers when the rest of the international carriers are flying the latest and greatest. So I would put money on minimal international growth (except for codesharing) and aircraft retirements as the new fleet arrives. With an airline of 12,000 pilots adding a few flights to NRT, SYD, PVG, etc won't translate into dramatic growth. I bet they do Africa and India via a codeshare with EK. Just my $.02. I'm usually wrong

 

[Green]

Pilots with 15 months are upgrading on the East.

True and it's an awesome deal for guys just out of new hire class. But to be fair that is years and years of reserve in PHL as an E-190CA. How many thousands in the right seat of other aircraft passed on that CA slot? And we haven't seen an SLI yet. I think people are forecasting stagnation after integration is complete and Doug can get to work on his 'synergies.'

 

[ackattacker]

Those orders you mention total roughly 70 aircraft. Give or take a few. There are something like 80 767 aircraft in the combined company. Many of them are long past their sell by date. I would be surprised if they are still flying 767's by the time the last 350/787 arrives. The 12 777's might represent growth but I'm sure some of the older 200's are getting ready for pasture over the next 5-10 years. Us Airways has some pretty old 330's as well.

They won't be able to compete 5-10 years down the road flying old gas guzzlers when the rest of the international carriers are flying the latest and greatest. So I would put money on minimal international growth (except for codesharing) and aircraft retirements as the new fleet arrives. With an airline of 12,000 pilots adding a few flights to NRT, SYD, PVG, etc won't translate into dramatic growth. I bet they do Africa and India via a codeshare with EK. Just my $.02. I'm usually wrong

I agree aircraft orders don't imply growth, necessarily. There's a lot of aircraft in the combined fleet that could be retired at any moment. But code-sharing only goes so far. I think Dougie has grander plans. IMHO. At some point you want to capture that international revenue yourself and not just give it away to your competitors. Aircraft orders at least means that they plan to stay in the big aircraft business.

 

[zymotic]

Pilots with 15 months are upgrading on the East.

That would seem significant if it wasn't for the fact that a 190 Captain makes virtually the same as a narrowbody F/O. That is the sole reason guys are getting the quick 190 upgrade. Narrowbody CA is still going to guys on the East no more junior that 87 or 88 hires.