xspud
What a long, strange trip
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2006
- Posts
- 164
I'm no prophet, so take it for what it's worth: the opinion of one ABX pilot. And if I were really that smart, would I be flying airplanes for a living?
As far as I know, there are no citizenship challenges pending. I don't think the UPS/FedEx challenges have been based on principle, they've simply been posturing to obtain competitive position or advantage. In the first place, it's understandable that they would hope to obstruct DPWN/DHL wherever they can (much like the pax challenges to Virgin America). In addition, from statements UPS and FedEx management's have made in Europe, it's clear that the citizenship issue is also used as a lever to push for greater access to Europe.
I'm sure that the DHL business will be a benefit for Polar/Atlas in that it provides a steady revenue stream for those carriers. But I do not expect it to provide a lot of growth for those carriers. DHL history shows that it does not grow it's air carriers. When they need more lift, they will contract with or acquire another carrier. For the same reason, I don't expect ABX or Astar to grow into new DHL markets. That's just not the way they've worked in the past. At the same time, I don't think DHL has any plans to eliminate ABX or Astar. Not from loyalty, as above it just hasn't been their practice. They certainly won't replace ABX or Astar with Polar. If DHL wants to replace one or both they will look for another carrier that already has the equipment to carry U.S. express shipments. As far as Polar/Atlas buying ABX or Astar, I don't expect that for the same reasons as above, it just hasn't been DHL's practice in the past to encourage or facilitate mergers between it's ACMI carriers.
As far as I can tell, DHL's recent growth has not been "organic", it has mostly been by acquisition. They've amassed a huge collection of companies and contractors. If they can ever forge a cohesive network out of that collection then there may be some growth opportunities for their ACMI carriers. If things remain as they are now, I expect both UPS and FedEx to eventually surpass them in the global market.
As far as I know, there are no citizenship challenges pending. I don't think the UPS/FedEx challenges have been based on principle, they've simply been posturing to obtain competitive position or advantage. In the first place, it's understandable that they would hope to obstruct DPWN/DHL wherever they can (much like the pax challenges to Virgin America). In addition, from statements UPS and FedEx management's have made in Europe, it's clear that the citizenship issue is also used as a lever to push for greater access to Europe.
I'm sure that the DHL business will be a benefit for Polar/Atlas in that it provides a steady revenue stream for those carriers. But I do not expect it to provide a lot of growth for those carriers. DHL history shows that it does not grow it's air carriers. When they need more lift, they will contract with or acquire another carrier. For the same reason, I don't expect ABX or Astar to grow into new DHL markets. That's just not the way they've worked in the past. At the same time, I don't think DHL has any plans to eliminate ABX or Astar. Not from loyalty, as above it just hasn't been their practice. They certainly won't replace ABX or Astar with Polar. If DHL wants to replace one or both they will look for another carrier that already has the equipment to carry U.S. express shipments. As far as Polar/Atlas buying ABX or Astar, I don't expect that for the same reasons as above, it just hasn't been DHL's practice in the past to encourage or facilitate mergers between it's ACMI carriers.
As far as I can tell, DHL's recent growth has not been "organic", it has mostly been by acquisition. They've amassed a huge collection of companies and contractors. If they can ever forge a cohesive network out of that collection then there may be some growth opportunities for their ACMI carriers. If things remain as they are now, I expect both UPS and FedEx to eventually surpass them in the global market.
