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Facts on Retirements?

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rajflyboy

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Joined
Dec 19, 2003
Posts
1,797
Does anyone really know how many Retirements we will see at the Majors over the next 5 years or so?

I am reading over and over and over again about the future pilot shortage that we will have.

Is there any truth to this?
 
Does anyone really know how many Retirements we will see at the Majors over the next 5 years or so?

I am reading over and over and over again about the future pilot shortage that we will have.

Is there any truth to this?

Age 70 will alleviate any pilot shortages.
 
Does anyone really know how many Retirements we will see at the Majors over the next 5 years or so?

I am reading over and over and over again about the future pilot shortage that we will have.

Is there any truth to this?

There are 2200 guys over age 60 now at Delta, and 4000 will leave within 10 years. Those 2200 guys over 60 may not stay until 65, since most are ex NWA guys with full pensions. Just 100 widebody Capts leaving would cause huge movement upwards, so think what 2200 could do?


OYS
 
There are 2200 guys over age 60 now at Delta, and 4000 will leave within 10 years. Those 2200 guys over 60 may not stay until 65, since most are ex NWA guys with full pensions. Just 100 widebody Capts leaving would cause huge movement upwards, so think what 2200 could do?


OYS

Good Information to have. I'm assuming the other Majors are in a similar position.

Thanks!
 
On 12/13/2012, UAL will retire one pilot every 17 hrs..... I have seen somewhere that the new U will retire around 4000 by 2016, so by 2014 2000, I have seen the number somewhere can't remember though...maybe my dreams....the 1 every 17 hrs is accurate though!! What ever number it is, it's not happening fast enough. Talked to a fed about 70, he says there is no way that will happen, the decrease in your cognitive skills takes off after 65, he said something like 7 x's faster than after 60, not to worry, automation will take care of the pilot shortage, i.e. UAV.
 
There are 2200 guys over age 60 now at Delta, and 4000 will leave within 10 years. Those 2200 guys over 60 may not stay until 65, since most are ex NWA guys with full pensions. Just 100 widebody Capts leaving would cause huge movement upwards, so think what 2200 could do?


OYS

By my count there are only about 500 over 60 right now. Not sure where you got the 2200 number. The 4000 retiring in the next 10 is correct, however, those retirements are weighted significantly towards the end of that 10 year period.
 
By my count there are only about 500 over 60 right now. Not sure where you got the 2200 number. The 4000 retiring in the next 10 is correct, however, those retirements are weighted significantly towards the end of that 10 year period.

SD, VP of Flt Ops gave that number at a newhire dinner in November. How can you come up with only 500 over 60 right now? None of the NWA guys left for their pensions. SD said 1800 in the 60-65 zone this Spring, and 2200 by this Summer.

OYS
 
How many will leave at age 62, 63, 64, or 65?

DATE:20/04/11
SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence news
WATS 2011: Delta ponders pilot sources
By John Croft


Delta Air Lines is considering a "blue sky" theory for how to meet future pilot demands. Called "CAPT," for Civil Airline Pilot Training programme, the carrier stresses the idea is conceptual in nature and that it is not committed to the implementation, nor is it engaged in discussions with potential sponsors.

Speaking at the World Aviation Training conference in Orlando, Florida on 19 April, Arnie Kraby, Delta's manager of pilot selection, said a dramatic pilot shortage is a "gathering storm" that industry must address. Delta alone in the next 15 years will lose 7,600 pilots who will reach age-65 and retire, says Kraby.

CAPT would mainly look to high-tier college aviation programmes as means of cultivating pilots. "Statistical data indicates that a quality college education from a top-tier university or college provides us with a much better pilot in terms of fewer training failures, overall performance and reliability," notes Kraby.

The programme would include advanced jet aircraft simulation training and would be on par with military training, which produces skilled pilots qualified to fly high-performance aircraft in a shorter period compared with the civil sector, says Kraby. He is a former US Air Force pilot who flew Delta aircraft for 38 years,

"First we need to educate, mentor and train students," says Kraby. The CAPT programme would invite stakeholders across industry to come onboard as sponsors and jointly work out solutions. One of the first goals would be to build an outreach programme focused on middle- and high schools in an effort to stir up enthusiasm for the pilot profession.
CAPT candidates would be carefully screened to choose only those who have skills necessary to become a pilot.

The candidate would have to maintain a 2.75 GPA, and 3.0 GPA for aviation courses. Upon earning a degree, the candidate would be required stay on as CAPT member and accrue 1,000 hours as a flight instructor at the university, thus providing a stable workforce for the school and to acquire FAA-required flight hours.
Graduates of the programme would be guaranteed an interview at a sponsoring regional airline. Then, after meeting regional airline requirements and logging required number of hours for a mainline slot (Delta requires 1,200 hours), CAPT would offer an interview at a major airline sponsor-- "another light at the end of the tunnel", says Kraby.
With aviation training costs running $80,000-$100,000, Kraby stresses: "We've [industry] got to provide financial assistance for students if we are to get the [pilot] numbers." The programme might require that student loans be guaranteed by the sponsoring organisation. Another solution might be to have loans reduced by 5% per year up to a maximum of 50% for each year the candidate works for a sponsoring airline.



OYS
 
SD, VP of Flt Ops gave that number at a newhire dinner in November. How can you come up with only 500 over 60 right now? None of the NWA guys left for their pensions. SD said 1800 in the 60-65 zone this Spring, and 2200 by this Summer.

OYS

Just add up the mandatory retirements for the next five years to figure out how many over 60 guys we have. That equals the guys that are +60. Its posted on the crew resources site.
 
Just add up the mandatory retirements for the next five years to figure out how many over 60 guys we have. That equals the guys that are +60. Its posted on the crew resources site.

I am telling you what SD stated to us. Delta doesn't think everyone will go to 65. I did not make up those numbers.


OYS
 
This is the airline managements wet dream.

Get in a group of kids who are now in debt to you for $100,000+ and then place them on your seniority list. Pro rate the debt to ten years and PRESTO! You have a ready made scab force to break the pilot union.
 
SWA retires 2400 in the next 15 years. 41% of the pilot group if everyone works until their 65th birthday. The number will be greater than that as people retire early
 

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