Will the USAir/Delta Merger happen?

[Longhorn]

Well, members have asked for the poll, so here it is. Let the discussion begin. Lets please respect others opinions here and no flaiming.

 

[scoreboard]

There's no "so what" button...

 

[Lear70]

There's no "so what" button...

That's pretty funny, too...

Never say never, but my vote is "No." Delta's got the board and the creditors saying "No, thanks," and it has way too much overlapping routes and services, so it's doubtful it'd make it off the hill either.

I DO, however, think this will stir the pot and, in the next year, we'll see the beginning of at least one, if not two mergers/acquisitions of legacy and/or LCC's.

Flame away!

 

[Old School]

I havent heard any creditors saying no yet. The overlap can be discussed and the PBGC is a creditor, which might put pressure on the Feds to help out their own agency. I'd say 50/50. Who ever thought AWA/USA would make a profit so soon? This industry is one of the trickiest to predict.
Old School

 

[abe44]

This deal has zero chance of happening. There are mergers in this industry that make sense, but this isn't one of them....this might actually be the worst combination that anyone could ever dream up!

The Delta creditors already realize that this is a low-ball offer and you will see this deal die a quick death in the next few weeks...mark my word.

It may spurn other deals, however....and it could get interesting!


Abe44

 

[I_Love_Lamp]

100% this won't go through. Based off of inside information that of course I cannot divulge. Which means that nobody will believe me regardless. Just let it be known, DAL-US will not happen, however, there will be a shakedown announced fairly soon involving other carriers (or perhaps even US again).

 

[abe44]

100% this won't go through. Based off of inside information that of course I cannot divulge. Which means that nobody will believe me regardless. Just let it be known, DAL-US will not happen, however, there will be a shakedown announced fairly soon involving other carriers (or perhaps even US again).

Sounds like you may have some inside info "I Love"...

I think Delta comes out of this mess as a stand alone carrier. Do you have any info that disputes this? (And please don't tell me that United will mount a successful bid...just aint gonna happen!)

Abe44

 

[jetflier]

The US AIR and DAL merger will not happen, and here's why....

DAL and NWA entered bankruptcy court in NY on the same day, same courthouse, same time.

I believe that this was carefully orchestrated, so that that the people and attorneys working on both of the reorganizations could essentially, work together, without having to travel accross the country. Additionally, having the same courthouse, judiciary, and staff would further enhance the efficiency of combinning DAL/NWA.

Texas Pacific Group's, David Bonderman, I believe is also a player in this deal.

I could be totally wrong, but having two major airlines file CH11, same courthouse, same time is more than just a coincidance.

 

[Helos2Galaxy]

One can argue that a DAL / NWA merger may make sense, at least there is something to compliment each other with. Bye bye Cincy keep DTW and /or MSP. Bye be MEM and keep ATL.

At least for the international flying (which the legacies believe the profit are and not suceptible to cheaper fares, Delta has Europe and NW has the Orient.

 

[sonny320]

Didn't realize most pilots are professional anal lysts. Come on it's like sports announcers picking a team that's going to win. Or stock analysts. 50/50 it will happen.

 

[ponder]

No they're going to buy Alaska instead.

 

[737 Pylt]

The US AIR and DAL merger will not happen, and here's why....

DAL and NWA entered bankruptcy court in NY on the same day, same courthouse, same time.

I believe that this was carefully orchestrated, so that that the people and attorneys working on both of the reorganizations could essentially, work together, without having to travel accross the country. Additionally, having the same courthouse, judiciary, and staff would further enhance the efficiency of combinning DAL/NWA.

Texas Pacific Group's, David Bonderman, I believe is also a player in this deal.

I could be totally wrong, but having two major airlines file CH11, same courthouse, same time is more than just a coincidance.

Jet:
I agree. I would much rather see DL & NW join forces, if DL were to be acquired/merge with someone. Anyone but US Airways. They bring nothing to the table for DL except for some old has been airbuses from AWA. NW's Asia presence along with DL's Europe routes would, in my opinion (which ain't worth squat I know) would fit alot better than dougie parker's synergies!

737

 

[clickclickboom]

Or maybe this is just one big publicity stunt

 

[johnsonrod]

Congressman Oberstar (upcoming Chairman of the Aviation Sub Committee I believe) knows that if you allow one big merger then others will follow... However, if one airline is completely broken (like USAirways was before US/AWA merger) then a merger might make sense because the alternative is liquidation and lost jobs - but that would be an extreme situation (very similar to how USAirways was before the merger - a lost cause). The merger between USAirways and AWA made sense from a strategic standpoint too - they had complementary route structures with little overlap.

That being said, no way Oberstar will allow many mergers to happen that will eventually lead to less consumer choice and capacity reductions - especially on mid-tier routes (current RJ routes). That's the big point that everyone is missing in the "synergy" hype.

Less competition and less choice = a non-starter...

 

[GogglesPisano]

Parker wants to reduce capacity in the marketplace. This is a very stupid, and expensive, way to do it.

 

[General Lee]

I havent heard any creditors saying no yet. The overlap can be discussed and the PBGC is a creditor, which might put pressure on the Feds to help out their own agency. I'd say 50/50. Who ever thought AWA/USA would make a profit so soon? This industry is one of the trickiest to predict.
Old School

Supposedly the PBGC has come to an agreement with us. I don't know how they did it, but supposedly they did. AWA and US were "allowed" to merge by the Gov't because the hubs and majority of routes did NOT overlap. AWA had hubs in the West, US in the East. It is that simple. There is so much overlap in this proposed merger, it is ridiculous. And, good ole Parker loves to tout that there are only 11 direct routes that overlap. Well, sure, USAir doesn't fly to many cites directly out of our DL hubs. But, we hit many of the same cities in the East (NC, SC, VA, WV), and to say that we will offer service from both CLT and ATL if we did merge is RIDICULOUS. That is the overlap. And, the LCCs like SW and JB won't fill in the gaps, unless they want to go to Lynchburg. Jim Oberstar doesn't like mergers (a la his paper written during the USAir/UAL proposed merger) because one large merger would cause other mergers, and that will cause lack of "choice" for consumers, especially in the smaller cities. Sure, SW and AT could pick up some slots or gates in the larger cities, but they would not venture into smaller communities, like Hunington, WV. That is the key.

And, USAir WANTED to be merged with AWA, since they were going to liquidate. DL does NOT want to be merged, and they have Congressional support too that will help, besides Oberstar, the Chairman of the Committee.

Also, US hasn't even gotten their act together with their own pilots about their contract, or seniority integration. Parker can't even handle what is on his current plate.

UNLIKELY.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[737 Pylt]

Parker wants to reduce capacity in the marketplace. This is a very stupid, and expensive, way to do it.

Goggles:
Exactly! Because where (the new) DL slims down its routes, it just opens the door for new LCC's to step right in and fill the void (ergo Virgin America, and Skybus)

737

 

[Tejas-Jet]

DAL and NWA entered bankruptcy court in NY on the same day, same courthouse, same time.

I could be totally wrong, but having two major airlines file CH11, same courthouse, same time is more than just a coincidence.

I believe that it is nothing more then just coincidence. Now, if both BK's were being presided over by the same judge....now you might have something.

Lots of different cases tsake place in that courthouse...on the same day...at the same time...they all mean absolutely nothing to each other.

Again...having been through a merger...I never want to go through one again...and really feel for the employees that have to go through one.

Date of Hire=Unity=Date of Hire

Tejas

 

[TWA Dude]

I really don't think it'll happen but I voted "yes" just to piss off the Delta guys.

 

[retired guy]

PBGC hasn`t taken over or even agreed to take over the Delta pensions yet. My retirement check still comes from the Delta retirement trust.

 

[Heavy Set]

No way

It won't happen due to the route maps looking identical. I don't think America West and USair had hubs near each other. And the low cost carriers like Southwest and Airtran could not fill in the gaps to the small cities that would lose service. They wouldn't want to go to those small cities, and they don't have regional jets.

 

[Pat Fabin]

TWA Dude,

Here's one Delta guys that thinks that was pretty damn funny!

 

[bravodude]

Jet:
I agree. I would much rather see DL & NW join forces, if DL were to be acquired/merge with someone. Anyone but US Airways. They bring nothing to the table for DL except for some old has been airbuses from AWA. NW's Asia presence along with DL's Europe routes would, in my opinion (which ain't worth squat I know) would fit alot better than dougie parker's synergies!

737

why would you guys want to merge with NW. I believe they have the worst relationship with mgt. It would get really ugly.

 

[737 Pylt]

why would you guys want to merge with NW. I believe they have the worst relationship with mgt. It would get really ugly.

I'm only saying that if we had to merge/or were bought out by someone. US Airways/AWA brings NOTHING to the table for DL. At least with a NW merger, there are key asian routes to be linked to a great european route structure.

737

 

[General Lee]

I'm only saying that if we had to merge/or were bought out by someone. US Airways/AWA brings NOTHING to the table for DL. At least with a NW merger, there are key asian routes to be linked to a great european route structure.

737

And hubs in the States that do not overlap as much. (maybe MEM and ATL) USAir and AWA had hubs that were not even close to each other, which was key to their approval from the DOJ and Transportation committee. Also, USAir wanted a white knight, whereas DL does not.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Contract]

Well guys here it is. The courts have already decided that it is in the best interest of both parties to AP P NYY120406/07. bottom line APP PhxATL. Have a good day.

 

[Contract]

Basically....Buy LCC..you will make money

 

[Contract]

Oh,,,and by the way....Keep your eye on the Ball..This could be a curve, knuckle or even a Slow Ball....Batter UP.

 

[FDJ2]

Oh,,,and by the way....Keep your eye on the Ball..This could be a curve, knuckle or even a Slow Ball....Batter UP.

Or a wild pitch.

 

[TWA Dude]

Or a spit-ball heading for a pine-tarred corked-bat. Watch out for the suicide squeeze on a hit-and-run with a possible infield fly rule preceeded by a ground-rule double. This is giving me a 7-10 splitting headache.