Regional vs. United

[W8N4UAL]

I did a quick cumulative pay comparison between staying at my current regional (Shautublic), returning to UAL, or starting at UPS. I used 85 hrs across the board (even though I average higher than that where I work now) and factored in the various B fund/401K. Any guesses as to how long it will take me to break even if I return to UAL (this assumes current 145 CA pay here and 737/320 FO pay at UAL and FO pay at UPS)?

Seven years! That, combined with the threat of Age 65 stagnation and a possible merge then cut has me fairly well convinced that returning to UAL would be a heart decision, but definitely not a head decision. That doesn't even factor in crash pad costs (I live where I'm based now) and other commuting expenses. Or the fact that I'm in the top 1/3 at RAH, probably top 1/4 in the next year or two. Add in the personal situation of commitment to remaining in our current community and a young family (three kids, four and under with #4 due next May) and I think it becomes clear why my decision is a little more complicated than I ever imagined it would be.

Oh, yeah, when I ran the UPS numbers I had to make the Excel window bigger 'cause it went to seven figures cumulative with 10 years.

Am I missing any big factors here? Any input is appreciated.

W8N4UAL

or maybe more like

4GETNUAL

 

[Launchpad]

Just out of curiousity, are you getting longevity pay while on furlough? Does UAL have any -200's left (or is that the lowest pay rate in the current contract or something?) And what is the -200 rate that you would go back at? It can't be that much lower than CA pay at CHQ can it?

Good luck in your decision

I've got a similar decision to think about, although I have 5 more years before I really need to get serious about it.

 

[Swaayze]

Well I suspect you'll get a lot of grief from the know-it-alls for even considering staying at a regional vs. going back to UAL, but you're smart to consider it IMO.

Given the family considerations and the fact that you're already left seat at a regional which seems to be well positioned for some time to come, I think you might be happier staying put. It takes a lot to realize that family and QOL trumps bigger paychecks, but I think you're right on target. Do you have the discipline to live on less than your current salary and still save heavily for retirement? If so, and you don't feel that you have to have $150K to be happy, then I'd lean towards staying put.

I'm in a similar situation, furloughed from U but working at Eagle (again) so I can avoid a commute from DFW. We have young kids, nearby family and long-time friends, and absolutely no desire to move. If I were left seat here (or even had hope of it happening in the next 2 years or so) I'm fairly certain that I would not leave for recall to U. I am really only considering it because the upgrade here is so ridiculously long: I've been here 2 years and I'm probably another 5 out from the left seat at best. It's hard to save for the twins' education, weddings, etc. on Eagle FO pay, so I kinda feel like I have to seriously consider going back just to provide enough cash flow.

 

[Huggyu2]

No longevity pay at UAL if you're furloughed or on bypass.
No -200's anymore. The fleet is 737-300/500, A320, 757/767, 777, 747.

W8N4UAL, so are you going to apply to UPS, based on the pay?
Also, I'm assuming you can't be making more than $80/hour right now. Is that close?

 

[W8N4UAL]

Yes, I intend to go full bore for UPS. I take the FE written (again, I took it once for UAL but UPS needs a fresh one) in a week, I have recommendations lined up, etc.

I live in IND, so a drive to SDF is night and day from a drive/flying commute to ORD. Granted, neither is awful compared to some commutes, but I've done the drive to SDF and it's just not that bad.

A decision to go to UPS is not just $$$, but that's certainly a factor. They have a very viable business plan, they seem well managed, people that are there generally have told me they're happy.

It's a hard thing...the people flying the biggest airplanes at the biggest airlines right now didn't sign up for the "premium" airline when they started. They were turning wrenches for UAL and got an FE spot when pilots were slim during Vietnam/Korea. PanAm or TWA was the premium flying job. It's hard to know what will be sustainable over they next 31 years, but what seems clear is that it's not going to be whoever is currently the biggest.

I say that, but now I'm gunning for UPS. I guess I put them in a bit of a different boat, as their business plan does not have the risk exposure of a half dozen cheap airlines starting up and nipping at their heels. It's a little tricky to turn on the light one morning and have your business offer what either FedEx or UPS does, whereas almost anyone can get a few 737s or 320s and start an airline that adds unneeded supply that lowers prices assuming steady demand.

I make in the low 60s right now at CHQ at 4th year 50 seat CA pay. When I did my comparison, I used what the next 10 years would look like for me (that would be years 5-14 here and 1-10 everywhere else). The big thing to me is the security of being 530 out of 1600 with a family to support. I know we won't grow like that forever, but even if we stagnate I could live very happily at my current seniority. My bet is that RAH (CHQ's parent, one seniority list with three different certificates to operate under a variety of scope clauses) will grow to 2000-2500 before this current spurt is over.

One thing I realized last time I was furloughed is how incredibly specialized airline pilots are. Even people willing to give me a shot at a non-aviation gig lost interest when they understood my intent was to return to flying when I was recalled. I was essentially left with commission-based sales work, which I deplored. I did what I had to during that time, but I'm definitely thinking twice before I take the risk of putting myself and my family in that same position.

W8N

 

[BoilerUP]

Send me a PM W8N...lets finish that talk we had *very* briefly in the IND employee lot back in April when you were looking for your car.

 

[MRYFLYER]

Yes, I intend to go full bore for UPS. I take the FE written (again, I took it once for UAL but UPS needs a fresh one) in a week, I have recommendations lined up, etc.

Do what you feel is right in your own mind. However, I would add that you need to look at the way the regional industry has changed in the past 5 years or so. With the major carriers renegotiating at every opportunity for a lower bidder your job may not be as safe you think it is. All it takes is for someone to do it cheaper and your company shuffles the deck on you. Air Wisconsin, Atlantic Coast, Xpress Jet and various others have either seen the big changes and there is no doubt there will be more. The cyclical nature of the industry says that is the case.

While nothing is guaranteed you might stand a better chance on the property at UAL until your UPS opportunities are fleshed out. That is my opinion and it is not worth much but there it is.

 

[myq2u]

“I did a quick cumulative pay comparison between staying at my current regional (Shautublic), returning to UAL, or starting at UPS. I used 85 hrs across the board (even though I average higher than that where I work now) and factored in the various B fund/401K. Any guesses as to how long it will take me to break even if I return to UAL (this assumes current 145 CA pay here and 737/320 FO pay at UAL and FO pay at UPS)?”

”Seven years!”

“I make in the low 60s right now at CHQ at 4th year 50 seat CA pay.”

I’m confused on how you derived your numbers? If you’re making low 60s right now at Chautatqua, why will it take you 7 years to “break even” at UPS? Second year FO pay at UPS is almost 100k if you only fly the guarantee. If you get international flying (1 of my friends was hired into 757/767 and the other three were awarded international flying 757/767 within their 1st year) you’ll also get international override pay. Of course, crew meals, $3 per diem (I didn’t include it in the 100k), free uniforms, 12%Bplan, A plan… How the heck did you come up with 7 years??? Did I misunderstand your numbers?

 

[W8N4UAL]

The instability in the regional industry pushes me back toward UAL. It won't take long for us to get 10-15 year captains and for another regional with matching payscales but a younger pilot group to kick us in the chin.

Ask me tomorrow and I'll probably convince myself to stay put...

The seven year statement was only in comparison to UAL. UPS breaks even during the second year and it's off the charts after that.

W8N

 

[myq2u]

"...The seven year statement was only in comparison to UAL. UPS breaks even during the second year and it's off the charts after that.

W8N"

I see, thanks for your reply, makes more sense now... Good luck to you no matter which airline you choose.