First, the contract is not amendable for well over another year (May '05). The openers will be six months prior to that (November) according to our negotiating committee who are hard at work preparing for that, but we won't see anything in negotiations until probably a year and change from now. Since we get our 129th aircraft sometime in either Dec '04 or Jan '05, that would leave us with several months of "status quo" operations as far as fleet growth goes.
All of the following is speculation, which is all that any of us can do, but what makes more sense from NWA's management (disclaimer - they never have made sense before, but why let that stop us from applying intelligence where none seems to exist?):
Situation 1: NW gives all the next batch of RJ's to Mesaba. We realize that we're done getting new airplanes and will not be growing. There is zero fleet growth and everyone is stuck where they are; do you think that would make pilots eager to sign for whatever they offer in exchange for growth or do you think it would drive home the issue of
how badly we need protection in the form of pay and Quality Of Life issues?
Situation 2: NW gives us part of the next batch of RJ's that keeps us growing right up to the beginning of negotiations, then they walk into the room and say, "Here's the deal: take your current contract, add 2% to the 401k, add 3% per year cost of living increases to the salaries across the board, keep the rest of it the way it is and we guarantee you will keep getting RJ's". Now you've got the top 25% of the seniority group getting to keep their 14 days off and the rest of the QOL stays the same with no risk of strike, the bottom 25% of the seniority group gets guaranteed to upgrade in 2 - 3 years which they will need to build the upgrade minimum times anyway, and at least some of the middle 50% don't want to risk prolonged negotiations because they just
know Southwest is calling in the next year anyway.
That puts the vote near the 60% mark...
That last scenario is my biggest fear and why I think NW won't be foolish enough to start the Whipsaw TOO early... Leave that dangling carrot out there until it's fight time, then start snatching it just out of reach. My .02 cents for what it's worth...
As far as our mangement offering a decent contract right off the bat? Don't count on it. And please, don't take that as me being rude, this management group has proven time and time again that they don't really care for pilots and consider us a dime a dozen. Our senior management has directly said that they consider our job "easy" and that we are "some of the best paid pilots in the industry". In our last quarter's financial statement, our CEO said that "We will pay our employees industry average wages, but demand our employees work harder than the industry average." Does that sound like a management group that is ready to recognize the work that we put into the airline?
Now many of you may understand why we refer to our airline as "Pitiful Airlines" or "Cynical Airlines"... That's also why I said that as long as you can come to work, do your job, have a great time with your coworkers who are indeed some great people, and just go home without getting caught up in the company Pravda, this is a pretty decent place to work.
I know nothing about 9E or XJ's management, but has ANY airline ever made an "excellent" offer right off the bat?
