Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Friendliest aviation Ccmmunity on the web
  • Modern site for PC's, Phones, Tablets - no 3rd party apps required
  • Ask questions, help others, promote aviation
  • Share the passion for aviation
  • Invite everyone to Flightinfo.com and let's have fun

Looming pilot shortage at regional airlines...

Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Modern secure site, no 3rd party apps required
  • Invite your friends
  • Share the passion of aviation
  • Friendliest aviation community on the web

Rogue5

Adult Swim junkie
Joined
Jul 16, 2002
Posts
882
Pilot Training School Enrollment Rises, but Study Suggests More Needed to Meet Future Demand
AW&ST
05/22/2006, page 51
James Ott, Cincinnati

Filling cockpit seats, particularly at regional airlines, is likely to be more difficult than expected when as many as 8,000 pilots are currently furloughed at U.S. airlines and a future shortage is probable, according to a report by a career counseling service.

Some key training executives agree with conclusions of the preliminary report by Fltops.com. It suggests a looming shortfall of candidates in the U.S. to meet rising demand for pilots that the FAA forecasts through 2017. Fewer military-trained crewmen entering the ranks is the largest contributing factor to the predicted failure to meet hiring goals. Other factors at play in this tough post- Sept. 11 business environment, such as high entry costs, could pose insurmountable obstacles to those who are considering piloting as a career.

Among educators, these concerns have resurrected the idea for a government-sponsored national aviation academy to take up the slack in training future pilots.

The Fltops.com study holds that 120,000 new airline pilots will be needed in the U.S. through 2017, based on the FAA's fleet forecast. Growth alone will account for 67,000 new positions. Retirements under the Age 60 rule and other forms of attrition will require 53,000 replacement pilots. The usual channels of supply--the military, universities and flight schools--could produce little more than 90,000 in this period, a shortfall of 30,000 pilots.

The study, based on surveys of key sources of supply, coupled with an analysis of demand, is being refined. A final report is expected in August.

Common issues among aviation educators are rising costs and high fuel prices and how these may affect decisions of aspiring career pilots. A perplexing question is the impact on potential candidates of the industry's persistent turmoil, the string of airline bankruptcies, labor-management disputes and changing professional prospects.

"The dream is alive, but it's becoming more of a challenge for all of us," says Thomas Carney, professor and head of the department of Aviation Technology at Purdue University. Carney says he gets weekly updates on Jet A prices from a fixed base operator at Lafayette, Ind., where Purdue's aircraft fleet is fueled, and "new prices are scary."

In-state Purdue students pay $14,458 a year in tuition, including housing, books and supplies. Flight fees are separate and expensive: $19,071 for commercial/instrument rating, for example. The total cost for an in-state flight student, will run more than $90,000 for the four-year program. For out-of-state students the cost is an additional $3,454 each year. Financial aid is available, as at all schools, but the expense represents a real commitment.

Purdue's admission policy for the flight program is highly selective. It offers admission to 140 students a year from among hundreds of applicants, and usually 70 enter the program. They are typically goal-oriented and score high on the Scholastic Aptitude Test.

Carney wonders whether parents and students aren't reaching a critical point regarding the affordability of programs. "We're getting closer to it [that point] rather than further away," he says.

The Fltops.com study may be the first analysis of supply and demand related to the civilian pilot workforce. In the past, there was little need to look deeper, says Lou Smith, the counseling service's president. "Since the 1970s, the industry has benefited from the human subsidy of military aviators." As many as 5,000 military-trained pilots a year entered the civilian workforce during the early 1970s. That number is decreasing to a trickle. Based on recent contacts with the military, Smith reports the total number of former military pilots entering the workforce through 2017 is expected to be little more than 8,000 pilots.

The steady decline of those with military training entering into the civilian workforce has been a longtime concern of Bill McCurry, professor and chair of the Aeronautical Management Technology Dept. at Arizona State University. He and others in education have discussed a proposal for the creation of a national aviation academy where deserving students could receive a first-rate education with government support. It's better to start work on such a project now, he says, rather than wait until industry faces a crisis in coming years.

While 8,000 pilots, largely at the U.S. network airlines, are furloughed currently, two-thirds of those are employed at low-cost carriers, regional airlines, air taxis and other flight operations, according to the Fltops.com report. These pilots retain their seniority numbers at the major carriers and could be called back from furlough. In any case, most of these pilots are in the current mix.

Mike Yocum, president of the Regional Airline Academy in DeLand, Fla., and Phoenix, also thinks that pilot hiring will be a large issue at the regional airlines. Despite the widespread perception of industry turmoil, "there's never been a better time to get involved," he says. The academy placed 154 pilots with regional carriers in 2005.

The RAA program aims to "shape attitudes" that are required for professionals working in today's environment, says Yocum, an industry veteran who served as an executive with Pennsylvania Airlines and US Airways' Allegheny Commuter System. Candidates undergo a process that determines whether they can do the job.

Although Yocum says, "It's never going to be like it was, with Delta [Air Lines] pilots making $350,000 a year and working 10 days a month," the job still offers a handsome salary, and with hard work and persistence a student can do well fairly quickly. Andrew Bell, 23, an RAA graduate, is already serving as a CRJ700 captain at fast-growing Chautauqua Airlines of Indianapolis. He says student pilots worried about their career should shrug off their frustrations.

"When I was instructing and had about 900 hr., 9/11 happened. All the airlines were furloughing, and no one was hiring right away, but I continued to instruct and eventually, not too long afterward, got a job at Colgan Air. This, in turn, gave me the experience I needed for Chautauqua."

Tim Kruger, 20, a sophomore in aerospace management at Averett College in Virginia, is not deterred by the industry's current problems. "I'm looking at going into the industry that I have always loved.I'm passionate about flying. Even though the salaries are not as good as they used to be, this is something I can overlook because this is what I want to do."

Flight training programs have taken a hit from industry upheaval, including the terrorism threat, just like any other aviation component. Michael Karim, dean, College of Aeronautics at Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) in Melbourne, says the rule of thumb is that student recruiting shows a three-year lag after a jolt like 9/11. It proved true with the 70-member freshmen class of 2002 among the smallest. In 2005 and in this coming school year, class sizes are larger by about 30% each year.

The institute offers flight options in three programs: aviation management, aeronautical science and aviation meteorology. There are 4,000 students in bachelor's, master's and doctoral degree programs. Undergraduate tuition is $25,100-27,540 a year, depending on the program. The flight fee for training toward a private pilot's license, a 50-hr. package, runs $6,510, and that's just the beginning.

In recent years, FIT courses have shifted to connect with needs of regional airlines, and Karim has begun developing associations with various carriers.
Arizona State's close relationship with Mesa Airlines may be setting a standard for cooperative programs of the future. ASU and Mesa have a contract relationship. Students are trained by Mesa instructors, and they pay for the training directly to Mesa. There are now 35 ASU graduates flying for the growing regional carrier.

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Fla., has had success with internship programs for students at regional carriers. It is working on keying training in checklist and procedures to specific carriers, says John Merwin, program manager with the Aeronautical Sciences department. Embry-Riddle's enrollment declined after 2001 from a peak of 1,750 students but is now steady at 1,300. Merwin says all schools have stepped up their marketing programs to attract more qualified students.

A postgraduate pilot training program will no longer be offered at Embry-Riddle. Merwin says the program brought in students who were seeking to switch careers into aviation and were willing to pay $60,000 for tuition and fees for the one-year program. Some 50 students have graduated and another 50 remain in the pipeline and will complete the training. Embry-Riddle's board of directors decided to cancel the course, largely because it "was an expensive program and they had [yet] to see a return."

The authors of the Fltops.com study suggest that industry will need to shoulder more of the training burden in coming years.

"Recruiters at the regional airlines will spend the next few years in a blender trying to staff their airlines," Smith says. "They will have to contend with what the military services have always dealt with--massive defections--but the regional airlines don't have the $2-million-per-pilot training budget of the military."

During the 1960s, when the need for new pilots was great, airlines paid training costs as an incentive, Smith says. In the 1970s and 1980s, the military used bonuses and extended commitment levels to retain pilots. The regional airline pilot workforce now numbers about 20,000, the size of the U.S. Air Force pilot staff during the Cold War. He says something on the civilian side will have to give to ensure adequate staffing.
 
All regional pilots are getting paid to much as long as people show up for class.

(Jo -- MESA)
 
ties right into the looming hiring boom of 2007, starting in June
 
Looming shortage my a$$... Their are plenty of dumbasses running around with checks for 35k to pay for a job through one of those pilot mills... 6 months to BE 1900 FO then 1 yr till CRJ FO YAY! and they "pay" you about 7 thousand of your 35k back what a deal!
 
"""im Kruger, 20, a sophomore in aerospace management at Averett College in Virginia, is not deterred by the industry's current problems. "I'm looking at going into the industry that I have always loved.I'm passionate about flying. Even though the salaries are not as good as they used to be, this is something I can overlook because this is what I want to do."""

As long as there are 20 yearold kids who have the SJS the regionals will be fine in their hiring needs. This article stinks, I don't like how many times RAA was mentioned, and the fact that their graduates have had success in finding jobs. Also last time I checked Chautauqua doesn't fly CRJ700s. Makes you wonder if this is just a marketing ploy used by the academies.
 
OOflyer said:
"""im Kruger, 20, a sophomore in aerospace management at Averett College in Virginia, is not deterred by the industry's current problems. "I'm looking at going into the industry that I have always loved.I'm passionate about flying. Even though the salaries are not as good as they used to be, this is something I can overlook because this is what I want to do."""

As long as there are 20 yearold kids who have the SJS the regionals will be fine in their hiring needs. This article stinks, I don't like how many times RAA was mentioned, and the fact that their graduates have had success in finding jobs. Also last time I checked Chautauqua doesn't fly CRJ700s. Makes you wonder if this is just a marketing ploy used by the academies.
This is the problem, that kid is refering to the major airline salaries $250,000 to $170,000. I wish there was a way to set these kids straight.
 
I've been saying it for a LOONNNGGGG time:

Until we as pilots get together and make it a POINT to go to aviation campuses and explain the realities of aviation careers to these kids, they'll continue to jump on the bandwagon for $18,000 a year.

We really need to put a national program together with a powerpoint demo, buy 'em pizza, and have a sit-down serious discussion with them each semester.
 
Lear70 said:
I've been saying it for a LOONNNGGGG time:

Until we as pilots get together and make it a POINT to go to aviation campuses and explain the realities of aviation careers to these kids, they'll continue to jump on the bandwagon for $18,000 a year.

The problem is that most of these guys are still being fed by their parents. Mom and Dad are paying for college/flight training. They live with the parents or in dorms. They use dad's credit card. And they drive the family Acura.They have no idea about finance and naturally they won't care that they will pay 50K for flight training and make 1500 per month as a FO because they don't know what that is like.
 
But they are not making $35K after 10 years in the business, most are making close to $100K. That still puts a pilot in the upper 10% of US wage earners. That is not a bad place to be. If you like to fly this is still a great career. I taught my son to fly and he is a professional pilot, I am teaching my grandson to fly and will encourage him to pursue his interest in flying if it matches his father's and grandfather's.
 
Boy I'm glad I've got an in at the most profitable major and won't have to put up with the regional BS.
 

Latest resources

Back
Top