Frontier Done (?)

[stratus72]

They won't say, so you know it is bad.

The last public numbers showed around $100 million on May 1. During the last 3 weeks of April they were losing $300-700k a day, depending on the source. The 1110 cure was enormous but not publicly released. Try and wrap your head around 60 airbus payments and 10 q400's for two months.

If you take the low end of the cash burn, $300k a day, we are down to around $90 million by June 9th. Then factor in whatever the 1110 payment was. If it was $10 million we are at $80 million. If it was $25 we are down to $65 million.

Lets be optimistic and say we have $80 million. Divide that by $300k a day and you get roughly 8 months of cash. If we are down to $65 then we have 6 months. If the burn rate is actually $700k a day the lifespan changes to less than 4 months of cash to as short as two months. The courts will not let you run down to zero, so we have basically two options.

1. Oil drops rapidly and we all still have jobs.

2. We start burning the furniture "extending the runway" (I just threw up a little typing that).

I have heard the "6 paychecks" rumor as well. I think with the sale of 4 more aircraft we may live to see the leaves turn color.

I think you nailed it on the head.

 

[stratus72]

Keeping all the leases would allow you to sell a few (3-5) more airplanes and wait out the drop in oil and/or drop in service by competitors. I wish everyone at F9 a prosperous future.

BINGO! Let's hope it works out.

 

[Falcon Jet 1]

remember the lawyers and your directors will not let you burn down to 0 dollars, they have their fees that they have to get paid for. What is that amount, probably in the 10- 15 million range.

 

[Colonel Savage]

remember the lawyers and your directors will not let you burn down to 0 dollars, they have their fees that they have to get paid for. What is that amount, probably in the 10- 15 million range.

That's true, but it's hard to know what an adequate reserve is. Someone was speculating that UAL needed 1 billion left just to do a Chapt 7.

 

[Browntothebone]

Good luck, but will this be the "Final Frontier"?

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

Dude, people are probably going to lose their jobs. Families are going to endure terrible hardships, lots of children are going to lose health insurance, and you're making gay Star Trek puns? Not cool...

 

[Cardinal]

"Terrible harship" is Robert Mugabe lighting you and your goats on fire because you won't vote for his commie thugness. The end of Frontier would simply suck and leave many of us scratching our heads. But hopefully we won't have to see that. Here's to the industry. :beer:

 

[cale42]

"Terrible harship" is Robert Mugabe lighting you and your goats on fire because you won't vote for his commie thugness. The end of Frontier would simply suck and leave many of us scratching our heads. But hopefully we won't have to see that. Here's to the industry. :beer:

Truly well put...

 

[Dizel8]

The only thing worse than airline executives talking about airline economics is airline pilots talking about airline economics.

I don't know about that, management sure do have some strange ideas at times.

 

[Hawker dude]

Ahhhh nothing like a bunch of pilots that think that they are now economists.....

I think it is safe to say NONE of us have any idea what the landscape would have looked like if not for the fuel hedges. 2 things are a certainty. Costs WOULD have been higher, ticket prices WOULD have been more, capacity would have been different, and NOBODY on this board has a clue as to what WOULD have been the end result.

Class over.

Dude, Skybus???????

what ever you say doesn't matter after you work at a dum$as* airline like skysuck.

stop talking NOW.

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

Well, you're an idiot. I hope you never have to deal with any real hardships. Unless of course you're from Rhodesia and can speak from experience. Nah, it's much better than to just sit around, scratch your empty head, and drink. Rectum...

"Terrible harship" is Robert Mugabe lighting you and your goats on fire because you won't vote for his commie thugness. The end of Frontier would simply suck and leave many of us scratching our heads. But hopefully we won't have to see that. Here's to the industry. :beer:

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

You're a high-time, seasoned professional idiot too. How about a little compassion, Newbie?

Truly well put...

 

[cale42]

You're a high-time, seasoned professional idiot too. How about a little compassion, Newbie?

Umm.. I think you misunderstood.. I work under the F9 umbrella.. as does Cardinal.. there is no lack of compassion or truly hoping Frontier survives.. however we get so caught up in our world sometimes we forget to maintain perspective and understand what terrible hardship really means..trust me.. I have plenty of compassion and genuine concern.. but you can never lose perspective.

cale

 

[Skybus]

Dude, Skybus???????

what ever you say doesn't matter after you work at a dum$as* airline like skysuck.

stop talking NOW.

Hawker Dude ( I mean Dic$head)

I guess you and your vast Hawker experience qualifies u as an airline economist/expert??? Had you a clue, you would know that the handle came long before skybus, as WN was the original "skybus" having morphed into the 800lb gorilla of the industry. Having spent 25+ years there and a previous BK prior, I think I "might" have a clue.

Thanks for your input however Dum$ass

 

[stratus72]

Our management claims to have several financial options aside from DIP to help get us through the hard times. If fuel remains roughly what it is now in Sept, i think we'll still be around. Lease backs will free up much needed cash/selling some of our planes too. Never a good thing, but it might prevent us from losing too may jobs. Unless things really change, i do see some furloughs coming our way this fall. I hope that will be our wost case scenerio. We are far from safe at this point, but many of you said we would be out of business already. However, the lack of info coming our way does make me nervous.

I hope I can say, "I told you so." About our being in busniess that is...hopefully no furloughs.