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Sonic cruiser is shelved
By JAMES WALLACE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER AEROSPACE REPORTER
Dec. 19 - The Boeing Co.'s sonic cruiser, the sleek-looking jetliner that the company once promised would change the way the world flies, has been grounded.
As expected, Boeing executives concluded that they cannot make a sound business case for proceeding with development of the jet that would have carried passengers at nearly the speed of sound.
Boeing will focus its efforts instead on the development of a new super-efficient plane that will look much like the 767 and 777. That aircraft could be ready to enter service in 2008, depending on market conditions.
A formal acknowledgment that the sonic cruiser has been shelved will be made as soon as Friday, several sources confirmed.
Boeing commercial executives were not available for comment Wednesday night.
From statements they have made over the past few weeks, it was clear that Boeing realized it could not hope to sell the sonic cruiser to airlines in today's environment, in which many potential sonic cruiser customers are struggling to survive.
"The balance of the airlines is toward efficiency," Boeing commercial boss Alan Mulally said in a recent interview. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks "changed the equation," he added.
Although few industry experts, if any, believed Boeing would go ahead with the sonic cruiser, it was not known when the company might make an official announcement that it had shifted its product development direction.
Mulally and other top commercial executives had only said a decision on the sonic cruiser would be made around the end of the year.
Boeing has not developed an all-new airplane since the 777, which entered service in June 1995 with launch customer United Airlines -- an airline now in federal bankruptcy protection.
Some airline executives and industry analysts have criticized Boeing, which led the way into the jet age with its 707, for not taking a bold new step in aviation.
The company that risked its future in the 1960s to build the world's largest airplane -- the 747 -- has in recent years focused on making cheaper derivative models of existing planes.
Meanwhile, Airbus has leaped ahead with the development of its 555-passenger A380 super jumbo, which is scheduled to enter service in 2006. Even though the plane has many critics who argue that it won't do nearly as well in the market as Airbus predicts, the European airplane maker is praised for its initiative and industry leadership.
At the time Boeing announced the sonic cruiser program in March 2001, commercial executives had been trying to interest airlines -- unsuccessfully -- in a bigger version of the 747.
Instead, that program was shelved in favor of the sonic cruiser.
Now the sonic-cruiser program has been shelved in favor of a super-efficient jet.
"The good news is that, given all the market trends, there is no question this is the way to go," said Richard Aboulafia, aviation director with the Teal Group.
"The bad news is that we are still not sure what Boeing is going to do. It is one thing to announce intentions. It is another to get the authority to actually launch an all-new airplane. The jury is still out on Boeing's commitment to new jetliner development."
Although Boeing hasn't revealed the potential cost to develop the super-efficient plane, industry analysts say any all-new plane could cost $8 billion to $12 billion to develop. Airbus expects development of the A380 to cost about $11 billion.
Aboulafia noted that this will be Boeing's third major product development initiative announcement in as many years (747X, the sonic cruiser and now the super-efficient jet).
"But there is still no firm commitment," Aboulafia said. "You have to ask the question if the third time is the charm, or will Boeing's credibility take another hit."
If Boeing does end up developing the super-efficient plane, he added, it will "fly circles" around the A380.
"It will be a cost-driven fragmentation machine," Aboulafia said.
Boeing has long maintained that market fragmentation is driving the airline industry toward smaller longer-range jets that can fly point to point, bypassing the big hub airports that will be served by the A380.
The sonic cruiser created an unprecedented industry buzz after Boeing announced the project nearly two years ago. American Airlines boss Don Carty said he wanted to tie up production for a couple of years just to keep the plane out of the hands of American's competitors.
Continental leader Gordon Bethune, an ex-Boeing guy, proclaimed the "old Boeing is back" and predicted the sonic cruiser would be the best home run that Boeing ever hit.
Then came the industry's worst ever downturn. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks happened less than six months after the sonic cruiser was announced. Since then, some airline executives have said publicly that an all-new jetliner that will save them money could be a big winner for Boeing.
The sonic cruiser came as a surprise. Few knew about the project code named "Glacier," a plane -- with double delta wings at the rear with no traditional tail -- that would be able to cruise as efficiently as today's jets but at nearly the speed of sound.
But even before Boeing had talked publicly about the sonic cruiser, its product development people were working on what was known internally as project "Yellowstone," a super-efficient plane.
The super-efficient jet will initially seat about 250 passengers, which puts it in the size class of the twin-aisle 767.
It would serve what's known as the middle of the market. But the plane would have the range of the 777 or 747, which can fly upward of 7,500 nautical miles.
"It would look like a smaller 777," Walt Gillette, vice president of the sonic cruiser program, said recently.
But the engines and technology will be much more advanced. The 777 is based on technology that is now more than 10 years old. The super-efficient jet will be used mostly on international routes. Gillette said the new jet will be 17 percent to 20 percent more efficient than today's 767-300, based on fuel burn per passenger seat.
"It would have about the same operating costs per seat mile as the 777, which carries more than 300 passengers, or the 747 with 425 passengers," Gillette told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer last month.
"That is a very dramatic thing," he said. "It means that if an airline has each of these planes -- a super-efficient plane with 200 seats, a 777 and a 747 -- they could go up or down in size as the seasonal traffic flows, without changing their schedules."
He said Boeing believes there are a growing number of city pairs where airlines will need such a plane.
"By the end of this decade," he said, new city pairs "will provide sufficient traffic on a daily basis to justify a plane like this, as long as the plane provides good value."
At a meeting in Seattle two months ago of potential sonic cruiser airline customers, there was a clear preference for the super-efficient jet over the speedy one.
It was the first time Boeing had met with the airlines -- believed to number about 20 -- as a group. Over the past year, Boeing has met privately with each airline to talk about the sonic cruiser. The super-efficient plane helps Boeing with its middle-of-the market problem -- the 767. The Airbus A330 has been doing better in that market than the 767. It has more range and operators like its added cargo capacity. Even though Boeing has now turned its attention away from the sonic cruiser and will focus on the super-efficient plane, it will take another year of work to sharpen the final configuration before it's time to go to the Boeing board to get approval to offer the plane to customers.
So orders are not likely until late 2003 or early 2004. Boeing is looking at having the new plane ready to enter service around 2008, if that's when airlines want it.
The value of the sonic cruiser was its speed -- about 20 percent faster than today's jets. It would fly at nearly the speed of sound, or from Mach 0.96 to Mach 0.98.
The super-efficient plane will fly around Mach .85, or about the speed of the 747, currently the fastest commercial jetliner other than the supersonic Concorde.
Much of the technology that was being developed for the sonic cruiser will be used on the super-efficient plane.
It would have all-new engines and incorporate widespread use of either composites or lighter and stronger aluminum alloys that will soon be available.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P-I aerospace reporter James Wallace can be reached at 206-448-8040 or [email protected]
By JAMES WALLACE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER AEROSPACE REPORTER
Dec. 19 - The Boeing Co.'s sonic cruiser, the sleek-looking jetliner that the company once promised would change the way the world flies, has been grounded.
As expected, Boeing executives concluded that they cannot make a sound business case for proceeding with development of the jet that would have carried passengers at nearly the speed of sound.
Boeing will focus its efforts instead on the development of a new super-efficient plane that will look much like the 767 and 777. That aircraft could be ready to enter service in 2008, depending on market conditions.
A formal acknowledgment that the sonic cruiser has been shelved will be made as soon as Friday, several sources confirmed.
Boeing commercial executives were not available for comment Wednesday night.
From statements they have made over the past few weeks, it was clear that Boeing realized it could not hope to sell the sonic cruiser to airlines in today's environment, in which many potential sonic cruiser customers are struggling to survive.
"The balance of the airlines is toward efficiency," Boeing commercial boss Alan Mulally said in a recent interview. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks "changed the equation," he added.
Although few industry experts, if any, believed Boeing would go ahead with the sonic cruiser, it was not known when the company might make an official announcement that it had shifted its product development direction.
Mulally and other top commercial executives had only said a decision on the sonic cruiser would be made around the end of the year.
Boeing has not developed an all-new airplane since the 777, which entered service in June 1995 with launch customer United Airlines -- an airline now in federal bankruptcy protection.
Some airline executives and industry analysts have criticized Boeing, which led the way into the jet age with its 707, for not taking a bold new step in aviation.
The company that risked its future in the 1960s to build the world's largest airplane -- the 747 -- has in recent years focused on making cheaper derivative models of existing planes.
Meanwhile, Airbus has leaped ahead with the development of its 555-passenger A380 super jumbo, which is scheduled to enter service in 2006. Even though the plane has many critics who argue that it won't do nearly as well in the market as Airbus predicts, the European airplane maker is praised for its initiative and industry leadership.
At the time Boeing announced the sonic cruiser program in March 2001, commercial executives had been trying to interest airlines -- unsuccessfully -- in a bigger version of the 747.
Instead, that program was shelved in favor of the sonic cruiser.
Now the sonic-cruiser program has been shelved in favor of a super-efficient jet.
"The good news is that, given all the market trends, there is no question this is the way to go," said Richard Aboulafia, aviation director with the Teal Group.
"The bad news is that we are still not sure what Boeing is going to do. It is one thing to announce intentions. It is another to get the authority to actually launch an all-new airplane. The jury is still out on Boeing's commitment to new jetliner development."
Although Boeing hasn't revealed the potential cost to develop the super-efficient plane, industry analysts say any all-new plane could cost $8 billion to $12 billion to develop. Airbus expects development of the A380 to cost about $11 billion.
Aboulafia noted that this will be Boeing's third major product development initiative announcement in as many years (747X, the sonic cruiser and now the super-efficient jet).
"But there is still no firm commitment," Aboulafia said. "You have to ask the question if the third time is the charm, or will Boeing's credibility take another hit."
If Boeing does end up developing the super-efficient plane, he added, it will "fly circles" around the A380.
"It will be a cost-driven fragmentation machine," Aboulafia said.
Boeing has long maintained that market fragmentation is driving the airline industry toward smaller longer-range jets that can fly point to point, bypassing the big hub airports that will be served by the A380.
The sonic cruiser created an unprecedented industry buzz after Boeing announced the project nearly two years ago. American Airlines boss Don Carty said he wanted to tie up production for a couple of years just to keep the plane out of the hands of American's competitors.
Continental leader Gordon Bethune, an ex-Boeing guy, proclaimed the "old Boeing is back" and predicted the sonic cruiser would be the best home run that Boeing ever hit.
Then came the industry's worst ever downturn. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks happened less than six months after the sonic cruiser was announced. Since then, some airline executives have said publicly that an all-new jetliner that will save them money could be a big winner for Boeing.
The sonic cruiser came as a surprise. Few knew about the project code named "Glacier," a plane -- with double delta wings at the rear with no traditional tail -- that would be able to cruise as efficiently as today's jets but at nearly the speed of sound.
But even before Boeing had talked publicly about the sonic cruiser, its product development people were working on what was known internally as project "Yellowstone," a super-efficient plane.
The super-efficient jet will initially seat about 250 passengers, which puts it in the size class of the twin-aisle 767.
It would serve what's known as the middle of the market. But the plane would have the range of the 777 or 747, which can fly upward of 7,500 nautical miles.
"It would look like a smaller 777," Walt Gillette, vice president of the sonic cruiser program, said recently.
But the engines and technology will be much more advanced. The 777 is based on technology that is now more than 10 years old. The super-efficient jet will be used mostly on international routes. Gillette said the new jet will be 17 percent to 20 percent more efficient than today's 767-300, based on fuel burn per passenger seat.
"It would have about the same operating costs per seat mile as the 777, which carries more than 300 passengers, or the 747 with 425 passengers," Gillette told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer last month.
"That is a very dramatic thing," he said. "It means that if an airline has each of these planes -- a super-efficient plane with 200 seats, a 777 and a 747 -- they could go up or down in size as the seasonal traffic flows, without changing their schedules."
He said Boeing believes there are a growing number of city pairs where airlines will need such a plane.
"By the end of this decade," he said, new city pairs "will provide sufficient traffic on a daily basis to justify a plane like this, as long as the plane provides good value."
At a meeting in Seattle two months ago of potential sonic cruiser airline customers, there was a clear preference for the super-efficient jet over the speedy one.
It was the first time Boeing had met with the airlines -- believed to number about 20 -- as a group. Over the past year, Boeing has met privately with each airline to talk about the sonic cruiser. The super-efficient plane helps Boeing with its middle-of-the market problem -- the 767. The Airbus A330 has been doing better in that market than the 767. It has more range and operators like its added cargo capacity. Even though Boeing has now turned its attention away from the sonic cruiser and will focus on the super-efficient plane, it will take another year of work to sharpen the final configuration before it's time to go to the Boeing board to get approval to offer the plane to customers.
So orders are not likely until late 2003 or early 2004. Boeing is looking at having the new plane ready to enter service around 2008, if that's when airlines want it.
The value of the sonic cruiser was its speed -- about 20 percent faster than today's jets. It would fly at nearly the speed of sound, or from Mach 0.96 to Mach 0.98.
The super-efficient plane will fly around Mach .85, or about the speed of the 747, currently the fastest commercial jetliner other than the supersonic Concorde.
Much of the technology that was being developed for the sonic cruiser will be used on the super-efficient plane.
It would have all-new engines and incorporate widespread use of either composites or lighter and stronger aluminum alloys that will soon be available.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P-I aerospace reporter James Wallace can be reached at 206-448-8040 or [email protected]
