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1985 - NYC Discount Airline Expands Too Quickly

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Big Slick

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 18, 2004
Posts
284
Hard Landing Excerpt:

Of all these low-cost carriers, People Express was, in early 1985, the greatest threat by far. But People Express was also perhaps the most vulnerable. Barbara Amster of the American pricing department considered People Express “the guys with the Southwest Airlines philosophy but without the brains of Southwest.” More aptly, perhaps, Don Burr and People Express had all the great ideas of Herb Kelleher and Southwest Airlines, but lacked their discipline. Either way, People Express had to die. As Crandall’s planning chief, Don Carty, would one day proudly explain, “We devised the fare structure that put them out of business.”

American had out – People Expressed People Express. Because he had no computer systems and no yield management, Don Burr would have to offer every seat on any given flight at the price Bob Crandall was offering on a fraction of his.

Within minutes of American’s announcement, all airline stocks plunged; investors braced themselves for the bloodiest fare war ever.

To Don Burr it was as if a bull’s eye had been painted over his likeness.

“This is it!” he cried, slamming the newspaper down on the desk of one of his marketing executives. “This is a shot across our bow! If we don’t invent a way to deal with this, we’re history! We’re going to be dead meat!”

And - whump! – just like that, the losses mounted at People Express. Twenty million dollars in a matter of weeks, a tide of red ink such as People Express had never experienced. The panic worsened.

Worst of all, Burr was dying at the thought that the mystique shrouding Peoples Express was now evaporating. The red ink forced him to withhold profit sharing. The stock price was plunging. Soon there were union organizers at his doorstep. Burr imagined his employees turning on him, the pilots in particular. He heard them referring to the precepts as “Kool-Aid,” – the poison spiked beverage that the demonic cult leader Jim Jones had used to conduct a mass suicide a few years earlier in the jungles of Guyana. Burr imagined his pilots in their cockpits asking one another, “Have you had your Kool-Aid today?”
 
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“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santayana, “The Life of Reason” 1905
 
I am pretty sure David Neelman has read "Hard Landing". Song has already come and gone. The "Branding" is taking hold. There are differences that you ignore in your post. Anyhow, enjoy the bash.
SRT
 
Big Slick said:
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”







George Santayana, “The Life of Reason” 1905

Yeah, I'd like to share with you the same warning.

"Remember Eastern, Pan Am, Braniff??? Don't forget the same can happen to any legacy with international routes."


Now that we know how things could go wrong if things were the same now as then, here are some important differences.

1) scope issue and how it will play out. How JetBlue SWA and Airtran will fight 76-90 seaters flown by Mesa and other lower cost initiatives is not certain. This will be interesting to watch.

2) how low does pay at AA, UAL, DAL NWA and USAir have to go to overcome debt and lease payments in a rising interest rate environment? When it affects the LCCs' ability to profit, how will they respond? Another interesting show to watch. I don't buy the theory SWA will quickly "take a pay cut" if needed to preserve (decent) profitability. The union politics thing will get interesting.

3) Can SWA's lack of dominating hedges in 2008 and beyond really be the cure all with all the debt accumulated by their major competitors? I say debt is more of a drag now than the hedges are an "unfair advantage". Especially with refleeting a necessity. Look at UAL, they still have big debt even after BK.

4) How will SWA's competitors afford new airframes as the MD-80's get parked for fuel concerns? How much will all these pilots in training cost the company? Do you really know how expensive it is to have pilots not flying the line? CAL knows and is fixing the problem.




Despite all these negatives I believe almost all of the major players (if not all) will survive for the foresable future. Just like I believe SWA will still be a dominant player with the negatives facing it. I also believe JetBlue will be o.k. too. But they may not have the same future that has been mapped out for them. They are not People Express. Just like UAL and AA are not Eastern, Pan Am or Braniff.
 
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FlyBoeingJets said:
1) scope issue and how it will play out. How JetBlue SWA and Airtran will fight 76-90 seaters flown by Mesa and other lower cost initiatives is not certain. This will be interesting to watch.


If JetBlue, SWA and Airtran are smart they will do what they are doing now. Ignore the RJ market and stick with more efficient, and cheaper, mainline aircraft.
 
Cpt. Underpants said:
Ah, I get it...it's a JBLU bashing thread!

Fetches slippers and popcorn.

Jeez, been there done that before here. What is there, like 20 threads bashing Jet Blue?
Go watch basketball, drink beer, make nice with the old lady.
 
whaleroast said:
Go watch basketball, drink beer, make nice with the old lady.

What, you never heard of multitasking, I am watching this AND doing all that other stuff.
 

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